They just kept pushing back the imminent arrival of the recession until they just gave up. What an economy. Amazing stuff.
Charlie Bilello @charliebilello The Leading Economic Index declined for the 21st month in a row, the longest down streak since 2007-08. The Conference Board is now forecasting US "GDP growth to turn negative in Q2 and Q3 of 2024," pushed back from prior calls for a recession to start in Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 2023.
Reading about some of you selling at the wrong time is cringeworthy. If you're not retired (with rare exception), you should not sell anything. My stash hit a new milestone high on Friday, and I have NEVER taken a dime of profit since I started investing in 1989. Chasing a big score is a fools errand. Regular hefty investing in diversified stock mutual funds is the way to go.
Reading about some of you selling at the wrong time is cringeworthy. If you're not retired (with rare exception), you should not sell anything. My stash hit a new milestone high on Friday, and I have NEVER taken a dime of profit since I started investing in 1989. Chasing a big score is a fools errand. Regular hefty investing in diversified stock mutual funds is the way to go.
Or for diversification. Have been selling some of my AAPL when it made up over 30% of my IRA balance. Love being up 1500% in 12+years with a $14.12 cost basis but felt I was getting too greedy. I imagine there are others with NVDA shares in similar circumstance. Playing with the house's money.
Reading about some of you selling at the wrong time is cringeworthy. If you're not retired (with rare exception), you should not sell anything. My stash hit a new milestone high on Friday, and I have NEVER taken a dime of profit since I started investing in 1989. Chasing a big score is a fools errand. Regular hefty investing in diversified stock mutual funds is the way to go.
I don't sell actual dollars. I sold about 10% of my margin as I found it unlikely that the market would grow enough in the next 12 months to warrant the fees. When the market becomes ostensibly quite overvalued, like now, all I do is pause or reduce my dollar cost averaging. It has worked well for me as my 5 and 10 year returns have both "beat the market."
Reading about some of you selling at the wrong time is cringeworthy. If you're not retired (with rare exception), you should not sell anything. My stash hit a new milestone high on Friday, and I have NEVER taken a dime of profit since I started investing in 1989. Chasing a big score is a fools errand. Regular hefty investing in diversified stock mutual funds is the way to go.
Or for diversification. Have been selling some of my AAPL when it made up over 30% of my IRA balance. Love being up 1500% in 12+years with a $14.12 cost basis but felt I was getting too greedy. I imagine there are others with NVDA shares in similar circumstance. Playing with the house's money.
Apple seems to back in stride after floundering for a while. Look at their last 3 months return- actually up more than double the Nasdaq over that period.
It was probably their announcements about their AI strategies, which the market liked.
Hey, we all have different strategies. And since we are different pople, with different goals and mindsets, that is probably the way it should be.
Suffice it to say that there is no one size fits all when it comes it investing strategies.
Or for diversification. Have been selling some of my AAPL when it made up over 30% of my IRA balance. Love being up 1500% in 12+years with a $14.12 cost basis but felt I was getting too greedy. I imagine there are others with NVDA shares in similar circumstance. Playing with the house's money.
Apple seems to back in stride after floundering for a while. Look at their last 3 months return- actually up more than double the Nasdaq over that period.
It was probably their announcements about their AI strategies, which the market liked.
Hey, we all have different strategies. And since we are different pople, with different goals and mindsets, that is probably the way it should be.
Suffice it to say that there is no one size fits all when it comes it investing strategies.
I told my wife to load up on AAPL. It was around 52 five years ago and now around 235 or 250 (from memory).
From a year ago. And yet tech stocks beat the market again, up 35% vs 27% for the SP500 over the past year. So that relative valuation/earnings momentum yellow flag didn't mean much in terms of stock prices.
Game of Trades @GameofTrades_ Tech is at highest relative valuation against the S&P 500 since the Dot Com bust, despite falling 12-month forward EPS
1:52 PM · Jul 18, 2023 · 386.7K Views
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
Apple seems to back in stride after floundering for a while. Look at their last 3 months return- actually up more than double the Nasdaq over that period.
It was probably their announcements about their AI strategies, which the market liked.
Hey, we all have different strategies. And since we are different pople, with different goals and mindsets, that is probably the way it should be.
Suffice it to say that there is no one size fits all when it comes it investing strategies.
I told my wife to load up on AAPL. It was around 52 five years ago and now around 235 or 250 (from memory).
of all the mega cap tech stocks I'm least confident on apple. I haven't read anything to explain why it deserves this multiple or where future growth will come from.
I told my wife to load up on AAPL. It was around 52 five years ago and now around 235 or 250 (from memory).
of all the mega cap tech stocks I'm least confident on apple. I haven't read anything to explain why it deserves this multiple or where future growth will come from.
I would have totally agreed with you up until the companie's annual Developer's Conf. held last month in which they laid out their AI strategy. It did come as something of a surprise, and it seems they have scheduled a release of an AI enabled iPhone 16 with AI features with a Sept. release date.
I am also reading that there has been an uncharacteristic lag in consumers upgrading their phones and the upcoming cycle should be met with a lot of catching-up on the new models.
Maybe the way to look at it, and I emphesize the maybe, is that Nvidia, as the supplier of AI capabilities surged up to now as companies invested, but retail oriented companies like Apple who are now starting to offer those features in their products can benefit in so doing going forward. And Apple has lagged for quite a while, so it does have some catching up to do, as it seemingly missed out as the other big techs were being bought up for their AI potential.
just had a 4 standard deviation event with small caps
what's that...every 125 years or so?
wild stuff
lots of hedgies probably playing a game long tech/ short small caps...they now have to cover on a lot of illiquid small caps now. this is what happens when everyone uses the same algorithm.
of all the mega cap tech stocks I'm least confident on apple. I haven't read anything to explain why it deserves this multiple or where future growth will come from.
I would have totally agreed with you up until the companie's annual Developer's Conf. held last month in which they laid out their AI strategy. It did come as something of a surprise, and it seems they have scheduled a release of an AI enabled iPhone 16 with AI features with a Sept. release date.
I am also reading that there has been an uncharacteristic lag in consumers upgrading their phones and the upcoming cycle should be met with a lot of catching-up on the new models.
Maybe the way to look at it, and I emphesize the maybe, is that Nvidia, as the supplier of AI capabilities surged up to now as companies invested, but retail oriented companies like Apple who are now starting to offer those features in their products can benefit in so doing going forward. And Apple has lagged for quite a while, so it does have some catching up to do, as it seemingly missed out as the other big techs were being bought up for their AI potential.
hope you are right
i suppose apple has been collecting client data on phones and watches and using that data to figure out how to provide services and goods that people don't know they need. I'm that guy who doesn't know what he needs.
although I do plan to upgrade to the new iPhone in September...I have an 11...time to go.
I would have totally agreed with you up until the companie's annual Developer's Conf. held last month in which they laid out their AI strategy. It did come as something of a surprise, and it seems they have scheduled a release of an AI enabled iPhone 16 with AI features with a Sept. release date.
I am also reading that there has been an uncharacteristic lag in consumers upgrading their phones and the upcoming cycle should be met with a lot of catching-up on the new models.
Maybe the way to look at it, and I emphesize the maybe, is that Nvidia, as the supplier of AI capabilities surged up to now as companies invested, but retail oriented companies like Apple who are now starting to offer those features in their products can benefit in so doing going forward. And Apple has lagged for quite a while, so it does have some catching up to do, as it seemingly missed out as the other big techs were being bought up for their AI potential.
hope you are right
i suppose apple has been collecting client data on phones and watches and using that data to figure out how to provide services and goods that people don't know they need. I'm that guy who doesn't know what he needs.
although I do plan to upgrade to the new iPhone in September...I have an 11...time to go.
Yeah, time for me to upgrade as well. Embarrassed to say how old mine is, feels like a relic, but actually (Checking...) it's only 2 years. My, how we have gotten used to this constant need to be upgrading out tech. stuff.
I wonder how much staying power this small cap rally has. Historically, coming out of a downturn, small caps can run for extended periods. But this hasn't been a downturn, so maybe it's just buy-on-the-rumor phenomenon, and the rumor being that the Fed is finally likely to cut rates shortly (sept. according to street forecasts).
i suppose apple has been collecting client data on phones and watches and using that data to figure out how to provide services and goods that people don't know they need. I'm that guy who doesn't know what he needs.
although I do plan to upgrade to the new iPhone in September...I have an 11...time to go.
Yeah, time for me to upgrade as well. Embarrassed to say how old mine is, feels like a relic, but actually (Checking...) it's only 2 years. My, how we have gotten used to this constant need to be upgrading out tech. stuff.
I wonder how much staying power this small cap rally has. Historically, coming out of a downturn, small caps can run for extended periods. But this hasn't been a downturn, so maybe it's just buy-on-the-rumor phenomenon, and the rumor being that the Fed is finally likely to cut rates shortly (sept. according to street forecasts).
it's a lot of AI-type software driving this market too...and that works on momentum. It buys what is working and keeps buying it until it stops working. Not a lot of human brainpower behind it, and that can cause big runups like this. Many software programs running at once, doing the same thing. And you get 4 standard deviation events like this.
Post See new posts Conversation Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta The multitude of macro drivers supporting the onset of another gold cycle is truly remarkable. Amplified by the prevailing skepticism surrounding the metal, we are arguably experiencing the most important time in gold's history. The stars are aligning, and it appears to be only a matter of time until we see a major breakout from the recent triple-top formation.