What has bogged this thread down - and so many others on the topic - is the misinterpretation of what is meant by claiming something is "possible". In a legal sense - which is how the word was applied in Houlihan's case - it requires evidence of some sort before it can even be presented as an argument. Without that it would simply be struck out. Houlihan presented sufficient evidence that the Panel conceded her argument was a "possibility" - but to the barest degree. Expert assessment was that the combination of events necessary for it to occur in her case was "close to zero".
However the crucial test is not what is possible but what meets the standard of "the balance of probabilities". She couldn't meet that - or indeed get anywhere near it. She simply didn't have the evidence. There is absolutely NOTHING to suggest that evidence existed somewhere. That is pure conjecture. Cases aren't decided by conjecture. So we accept conclusions based on what meets the balance of probabilities. Nothing argued here about her innocence will enable her to achieve that.