Most probably already saw the first-hand account from Eric Spencer, 2-time finisher of Badwater and person helping to fim a documentary. He smartly didn’t come to any conclusions without more evidence, but his account is interesting (see below):
====================
I was reluctant to post publicly and have expressed privately what I’ll put below. And I’m just going to discuss what I personally witnessed and then make a point or two that might help with the framing.
Disclaimer: This isn’t meant to be a stamp of approval of the performance. That’s not for me to judge. It’s just what I observed in a limited way given the length of the race course.
I didn’t know Ashley personally before the race and didn’t meet her crew until about mile 110-111 (more on that).
Firstly, I was at Badwater as part of helping the crew filming the documentary on the race and 10 runners being spotlighted. My role was mainly to put them in position to get the best shots based on course knowledge and gauging the athletes’ performances dynamically as the race unfolded. This is my 8th time at Badwater during the race (not counting training trips). I’ve raced it 4 times and I’ve paced/crewed runners to 2nd, 5th, and 5th (1st female, CR—one before the one Ashley broke). I DNF’d at Stovepipe Wells (mile 42 for those not familiar) in 2019. Because of that, I was able to drive ahead on the course and watch both the male CR get set and the female CR get shattered. They also went 1-2 overall in the race.
Coming into the race, I carefully studied the field in preparation for filming. And I made my prediction of the top 3 of the women’s field. I didn’t order them, but the 3 I chose ended up being exactly the top 3 in the final results for what that’s worth. Mind you this was the deepest women’s field ever, and anything can happen in those conditions.
Now for what I saw:
—Ashley was just behind Yoshi and Ivan for most of Badwater Road (miles 0-17). I thought it was aggressive and could lead to a blow-up late and told the film crew that.
—But then she came through Stovepipe looking strong. The start of what I think best explains her final time began. She just crushed that 17 mile climb to Towne Pass. So much so that we let her go ahead to Panamint (mile 72).
—my understanding from friends present at Panamint who know their stuff is that she went through the timing station with a minimal stop and proceeded on the climb up Father Crowley and later to Darwin. So her arrival-to-arrival between those stations looks extra quick.
—I got to Panamint just after she departed. I’ve never seen heat like that at Panamint, and it kept getting worse and a considerable headwind picked up. Yoshi, Ivan Lopez, and Ashley had started the climb before the conditions intensified, but it was still blazing hot.
—I stayed for about 2 hours, and quite simply each top 10 runner’s stop after those top 3 runners was the longest on average that I’ve ever seen. Understandably—it was brutal. They were being strategic in looking after themselves with 63 miles and the 2 worst climbs remaining.
—I drove the film crew ahead to film the battle for 4th and 5th, both with the drone and set up on the tripod. I even filmed the crew filming on my phone.
—Ashley was about 2 to 2.5 miles ahead at mile 111 or so. We were in an unmarked SUV that neither she nor the crew would have seen, as we weren’t tracking her before that. The film crew got more ground and aerial shots of her while I filmed her on my phone and chatted with her crew. Ashley was in great spirits, looked surprisingly fresh (even clean—impressive), and I told her crew that I’d seen the best of the best here, and she looked as good as any of them.
—I also told them that Ivan Lopez was just 1 mile ahead and that she could catch him for 2nd (he and the crew vehicle were plainly visible along that open stretch).
—We then quickly drove that mile and filmed and interacted with Ivan. He looked a little rougher than Ashley but was moving well.
—I told the film crew that I thought she’d catch him on the Portal Road before the switchbacks. From observation, her pace was about 1-2 min/mile faster than his at that point.
—We then went to the finish and filmed Yoshi winning. I’ve not seen anyone really note this, but he struggled a bit (especially on the switchbacks) and finished with a heavy limp. What a champ though! Wire-to-wire again.
—We then drove back down. Ivan was 2/3 of the way up switchback 2. I was amazed that he had held Ashley off by almost the exact same time margin, both into Lone Pine and thus far on the climb. He had a really strong power-hike pace going on that incredibly steep grade. Each of the first 2 switchbacks is about a mile—so you go from mile 131 at the gate to roughly 133, then you turn and start heading more IN to the Whitney Portal, before the final S-bend climb into the parking lot where the finish line is located.
—We drove down the rest of switchback 2 and in the dirt lot where 1 turns into 2 was Ashley’s vehicle right up against the left side of the road. And Ashley was running by with her pacer and it appeared like they were crewing from inside the minivan. And I mean running, not glorified hiking with a different arm carriage. This is a 15-20% grade for those unfamiliar. I encouraged her again and told her Ivan was right there.
—the rest is history. Ivan held the margin and Ashley set the CR.
—Having observed her on small parts of 2 of the 3 climbs, she seems like a great climber. I’ve seen elites run the flatter sections slightly faster, but she’s in the upper tier in this area as well. Finally, since this is just about Badwater, she appeared to manage the heat well, which is likely the most important variable to control there.
People can debate anything else they want about a person’s history, etc. I’m staying out of that. This was just meant to provide more firsthand insight into Ashley’s race, bearing in mind that I only saw a small portion of it. There were some “unusual” aspects to it certainly, and I have no interest in speculation.
It’s worth also noting that A. You can’t use the Transitive Property and say that this means Ashley would win the Spartathlon or the 24H worlds. Or that because someone else did, there’s a high correlation to how they’ll do at Badwater. Both position and their time. It helps predict success at Badwater, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. Some people are just really suited to this race, in the same way that if you put Kilian Jornet or Courtney Dauwalter on a mountain trail, get ready for magic to happen. B. That every historical Badwater time was the best that person COULD have done on that day. People have won the race and left HOURS on the course—but their A goal was winning and they protected the win. Or they ended up very far ahead (or far between) runners and it was harder to keep that “hunter” mentality late when energy is lower.
I’ll also add that having to back up the race with data and explain anomalies observed by other runners/crews is totally fair. If a runner truly earned the finishing time, they should want to drop maximum info to silence the doubters.