Bloomberg reporting the same. Like I said earlier, they ( and other small banks ) have the wrong collateral for the Fed's new facility. A lot of loans but not much treasury and GSE's securities. Saw a couple of days ago JPM had provided assistance to FRC, wouldn't be surprised they end up buying and picking up loan portfolio on the cheap.
Regulators seized First Republic Bank early Monday and sold most of its operations to JPMorgan Chase Bank in what is the third major U.S. institution to fail in two months, according to The New York Times.
The deal to sell First Republic was announced early Monday before U.S. markets are set to open.
Regulators seized First Republic (FRC) early on Monday and sold the bulk of the bank's operations to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) in the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis
The fall of the $229 billion First Republic makes it the biggest casualty yet of the banking system turmoil that began in March, larger than either Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank. Seattle's Washington Mutual, which went under with $307 billion in assets in September 2008, is still the largest bank failure in US history.
Bloomberg reporting the same. Like I said earlier, they ( and other small banks ) have the wrong collateral for the Fed's new facility. A lot of loans but not much treasury and GSE's securities. Saw a couple of days ago JPM had provided assistance to FRC, wouldn't be surprised they end up buying and picking up loan portfolio on the cheap.
if those dumbsh'ts in DC ruin the economy and reputation of the US Treasury....lordy I am sick of the dumb politics in this country.
but, ruh roh
New:
WASHINGTON—Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government could become unable to pay all of its bills on time as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn’t first raise the debt limit. The new forecast released Monday gives Republicans and Democrats a matter of weeks to reach an agreement on raising the nation’s roughly $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. It is a shorter timeline than many forecasters had expected. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated in February that the U.S. could become unable to pay bills on time between July and September.
Provided to YouTube by Universal Music GroupWork Until I Die · S.G. GoodmanTeeth Marks℗ A Verve Forecast release; ℗ 2022 S.G. Goodman, under exclusive licens...
I feel bad checking on Doug Kass - he's one of the rare guys who says 'hey I'm wrong a lot so just be chill ok?'
But hey pixels don't cost anyone anything.
Here's Kass' firm saying the 'trade of the week' was to short the Qs on 4/18.
they did fall a percent in the following few days, but now stand up 1.1% from the short call.
So a mixed result. If a trader was quick and lucky he could have made a percent. But 9 trading days later and it's a material loss. This stuff is just noise really, esp if Kass didn't give a timeline.
Seabreeze Partners @SeabreezeLP Trade of the Week: Short $QQQ. Primary reasons for this position: - Tech is overbought - Buying has been on low volume - Tech is rate-sensitive (rising short-term rates don't provide a sunny outlook)
Primary reasons for this position: - Tech is overbought - Buying has been on low volume - Tech is rate-sensitive (rising short-term rates don't provide a sunny outlook)
if those dumbsh'ts in DC ruin the economy and reputation of the US Treasury....lordy I am sick of the dumb politics in this country.
but, ruh roh
New:
WASHINGTON—Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government could become unable to pay all of its bills on time as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn’t first raise the debt limit. The new forecast released Monday gives Republicans and Democrats a matter of weeks to reach an agreement on raising the nation’s roughly $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. It is a shorter timeline than many forecasters had expected. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated in February that the U.S. could become unable to pay bills on time between July and September.
By Dumbshiits, I’m assuming you are talking about the old guys who spent a bunch of money the past few years on one way legislation and not the new guys that haven’t spent much of anything. What would be stupid would for the old guys to dig in and not admit that they lost in November.
if those dumbsh'ts in DC ruin the economy and reputation of the US Treasury....lordy I am sick of the dumb politics in this country.
but, ruh roh
New:
WASHINGTON—Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government could become unable to pay all of its bills on time as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn’t first raise the debt limit. The new forecast released Monday gives Republicans and Democrats a matter of weeks to reach an agreement on raising the nation’s roughly $31.4 trillion borrowing limit. It is a shorter timeline than many forecasters had expected. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated in February that the U.S. could become unable to pay bills on time between July and September.
By Dumbshiits, I’m assuming you are talking about the old guys who spent a bunch of money the past few years on one way legislation and not the new guys that haven’t spent much of anything. What would be stupid would for the old guys to dig in and not admit that they lost in November.
what would be stupid is for Congress and the WH not to get a debt ceiling rise approved. That's the stupid I'm cursing.
Looks like Yellen's moving up X day to June 1ish gave cover to Biden to ask congress to start negotiations, which is good.
More fallout from last month's financial crisis. Timely because First Republic is down 20% in the pre-open.
Since the bear market started, and reinvigorated last month, there has been talk of the need for a giant VIX spike to shake out the last of the weak hands and let a new bull market start. We haven't had that yet but stocks seem to be building back without it.
This is not making the historical analysis people happy...but the post-covid economics have been one-offs from the start.
here this poster (152k followers) implies that the March financial crisis would lead to a big VIX spike and far lower stock prices.
No, we haven't had a massive fear spike. Yet.
Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow “St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index rises to 1.575 - a level seen only four times during the last 30 years.” —Oktay Kavrak, CFA In every case VIX hit at least 45. During the last two spikes, it hit 80.
ok so we got the banking crisis back with ferocity.
we got near zero month over month headline inflation (core is much worse)
we got oil plunging so headline inflation numbers may actually show deflation soon.
labor markets slowing
did I mention the banking crisis is back?
Solid chance the Fed is dovish tomorrow. Things be breaking. Fed knows that central banks often go too far and crash things. THey dont' want to crash things.
Since we're onto the music thing, this is the song I've been listening to, hoping that we have one more big downturn so I can grab back some shares I sold near the low a couple of months ago The more I hope for a drop, the less it seems to happen (I Had My Chance and I Let it Go). But it does help me get though dips like today.
I had my chance and I let it go (x2)Well if I ever have myself another chance like thatI'm going to grab it and I won't look back (x2)Sometimes I'm too caref...
Since we're onto the music thing, this is the song I've been listening to, hoping that we have one more big downturn so I can grab back some shares I sold near the low a couple of months ago The more I hope for a drop, the less it seems to happen (I Had My Chance and I Let it Go). But it does help me get though dips like today.
Official Audio for "Don't Stop Believin'" by JourneyListen to Journey: https://Journey.lnk.to/listenYDWatch more Journey videos: https://Journey.lnk.to/liste...
Since we're onto the music thing, this is the song I've been listening to, hoping that we have one more big downturn so I can grab back some shares I sold near the low a couple of months ago The more I hope for a drop, the less it seems to happen (I Had My Chance and I Let it Go). But it does help me get though dips like today.
Social Distortion's official music video for 'Story Of My Life'. Click to listen to Social Distortion on Spotify: http://smarturl.it/SocDisSpotify?IQid=SocDi...
ok so we got the banking crisis back with ferocity.
we got near zero month over month headline inflation (core is much worse)
we got oil plunging so headline inflation numbers may actually show deflation soon.
labor markets slowing
did I mention the banking crisis is back?
Solid chance the Fed is dovish tomorrow. Things be breaking. Fed knows that central banks often go too far and crash things. THey dont' want to crash things.
Of all this, the one that makes me particularly nervous is the debt ceiling issue and the very real possibility that the far right will hold it hostage to concessions that the Administration will not make nor even consider within this context. It's like watching a train wreck and I don't see any way to steer clear of it.
Biden needs to negotiate and compromise . His far left handlers are rightly betting that the media will back the Dems and make the Republicans out to be the bad guys as usual.This could make it harder to get a deal done.
Biden needs to negotiate and compromise . His far left handlers are rightly betting that the media will back the Dems and make the Republicans out to be the bad guys as usual.This could make it harder to get a deal done.
the thing is, is objectively clear that the Dems are correct here. Prior congresses authorized the spending and it's the job of this congress to pay for it. There's no logical way to disagree with that.
All the Rs can say in their defense is 'this is how DC works.' What they should do is raise the debt limit to pay the old bills, and then negotiate the spending cuts they want in the new budget. That's how this is supposed to work.
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