Provided to YouTube by Rhino AtlanticRock and Roll (Remaster) · Led ZeppelinMothership℗ 2007 Atlantic Recording Corporation for the United States and WEA Int...
probably surprising to many that the fed has raised interest rates from 0 to 5ish and that has had almost no effect on the economy. We're still at full employment, we're still growing at the same 1-2.5% rate.
People need to remember this when they talk about the Fed being all-powerful and controlling the economy. It doesn't.
Its effect on stocks and bonds is more important, but still, not as massive as people want to think.
probably surprising to many that the fed has raised interest rates from 0 to 5ish and that has had almost no effect on the economy. We're still at full employment, we're still growing at the same 1-2.5% rate.
People need to remember this when they talk about the Fed being all-powerful and controlling the economy. It doesn't.
Its effect on stocks and bonds is more important, but still, not as massive as people want to think.
What a tight rope act, though, I guess the GDP numbers released this morning were bullish in that they did show a tad bit of slowing in the economy in the first quarter, and the thought that it may be enough to keep start the Fed easing later in the year. Perhaps it fits the target of the "soft landing", as in slowing enough to cool inflation without going so far as to cause a recession.
And then there's that looming debt ceiling extension deadline.....
Hussmann back to the historical mean of solid -600bps per year
Hussman Strategic is down about 5% for the year but remarkably had very good years in 2022 and 2020 (up 17% and 14%, respectively). Alas, it did horribly the previous 10 years.
Yeah, it seems like amazon is just stuck in this range bound trading, and that is even so during periods when the rest of the Nasdaq 100 is grinding upwards. Becoming disillusioned with that one.
As for songs, at this level after a nice little spike up over the last few days, it's just a big question whether or add more here or wait for a drop to do so. So, the song in my head today:
The Clash - Should I Stay or Should I Go (Official Audio)Stream The Clash here: https://theclash.lnk.to/PlaylistsSubscribe to The Clash YouTube Channel: http...
Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2023 (with 53% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 79% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
SP500 was at 3797, below the 'agip will not talk to DGTD' level of 3800.
Stifel looks out, says 'inflation will slow quickly and stocks will rise over the next six months to 4300'
Not quite there, but close: 4169. Good, brave, accurate call on both inflation and stonks. 10% pop.
Carl Quintanilla 🔥 @carlquintanilla STIFEL: “.. inflation momentum has topped .. Energy, food and goods are all slowing, and together they constitute the majority of inflation above what may be an acceptable inflation rate for the Fed.” Sees $SPX 4300 in next six months
STIFEL: “.. inflation momentum has topped .. Energy, food and goods are all slowing, and together they constitute the majority of inflation above what may be an acceptable inflation rate for the Fed.”
One of the annoying things people do to make predictions is find some stat, comparison or ratio and think THAT is the key to the world. Oil/gold, bonds to stocks, etc. This guy uses lumber. He posted
The poster, with a massive 742k followers, said April would be bad in the stock market because something about lumber. But nah. SP500 gained a strong 1.4% in April. He made the prediction on 3/28/23
Score: 1/10. Only gets a point because of ambiguity.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport Meanwhile, Lumber. April is going to absolutely suck. Risk-off is coming. This time it's not about volatility. Conditions look ripe for an accident in the short-term. "WhaT aBouT ThE meLt-uP?" Path. Few.
Meanwhile, Lumber.
April is going to absolutely suck.
Risk-off is coming.
This time it's not about volatility.
Conditions look ripe for an accident in the short-term.
Regulators seized First Republic Bank early Monday and sold most of its operations to JPMorgan Chase Bank in what is the third major U.S. institution to fail in two months, according to The New York Times.
The deal to sell First Republic was announced early Monday before U.S. markets are set to open.
Regulators seized First Republic (FRC) early on Monday and sold the bulk of the bank's operations to JPMorgan Chase (JPM) in the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis
The fall of the $229 billion First Republic makes it the biggest casualty yet of the banking system turmoil that began in March, larger than either Silicon Valley Bank or Signature Bank. Seattle's Washington Mutual, which went under with $307 billion in assets in September 2008, is still the largest bank failure in US history.
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