Down goes the Dow

major holding for me.

I don't think you can ignore how much tech went down last year. Yes, outsized gains YTD, but this is after outsized downturn.

As a comparison, I compared the performance of a Tech sector Spider ETF against the nasdaq and the S&P 500 from the market peak of Nov. 1, 2021 to present.

I found that the performance of the Tech Sector Spider ETF is only 5% higher than the S&P 500 over that time period. That isn't much. So, same as it ever was, as the Talking Heads used to say. Interestingly, the Nasdaq is 10% lower than the S&P 500 over the same time period.

Not sure if this will come up here, but here it is:

finance.yahoo.com

XLK Interactive Stock Chart | Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund Stock - Yahoo Finance

At Yahoo Finance, you get free stock quotes, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, international market data, social interaction and mortgage rates that help you manage your financial life.

Link:finance.yahoo.com/chart/XLK?showOptin=...

seattle you must be killing it this year. Outstanding.

I held to my guns and while i used to be moderately leveraged, I reeled it in to merely maxed out, or almost so.

But here's the thing - it was a big drop off the highs, and that's the mental goal- get back to the ATH.

Then I might ease back, which has been easier said than done for me.

Regardless, not to lose sight of the big picture- the markets have been rewarding in the long term. Anything outside of that is cherry-picking.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2023 (with 17 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 16 S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

weren't we supposed to be in a recession by now?

Agip, hope that your situation is working out to your satisfaction. Lots to balance in terms of taking on risk vs one's particular risk aversion, timelines, etc. Definitely something of a balancing act. And a work in progress at that.

Cheerleading. From exactly the same FactSet report. Of course you can expect zero intellectual honesty from Earnie. Here is the actual important data from this report, and it ain’t pretty. But whatever you say, Seattle.

“Given the continuing concerns in the market about bank liquidity and a possible broader economic recession, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter?

The answer is yes. During the first quarter, analysts lowered EPS estimates for the quarter by a larger margin than average. The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q1 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 6.3% (to $50.75 from $54.13) from December 31 to March 30.

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter has been 2.8%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter has been 3.3%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter has been 4.6%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter has been 3.8%.”

Enjoy the bear market rally :-)

More from 3/31/2023 FactSet report:

“In terms of guidance, more S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q1 2023 compared to recent averages as well. At this point in time, 106 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2023, Of these 106 companies, 79 have issued negative EPS guidance and 27 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2023 is above the 5-year average of 57 and above the 10-year average of 65.

Because of the higher number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance and the net downward revisions to earnings estimates, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline for Q1 2023 is larger today relative to the start of the first quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report a (year-over-year) earnings decline of -6.6%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline of -0.3% on December 31.”

^Russian propaganda, most likely Zerohedge highjacked FactSet report to undermine the great new Bull Market. :-)

You need to just STFU. I post the same information almost every week. That is not cheerleading. They are facts and certainly intellectually honest. If you have a complaint, take it up with John Butters.

Meanwhile, if you want to complain about “cheerleading” or someone with “zero intellectual honesty” take it up with the intellectual lightweight who keeps reposting tweets from John Hussman, Zerohedge, and other brain dead analysts.

Weak post, of course it is cheerleading. Actually the absolute biggest cheerleading post, every week, week after week, year after year.

If you use bad language against my post again, I will ask your post to be removed.

If copying and pasting someone else’s words is cheerleading, then you are by far the biggest cheerleader here.

🖕

Just thought I would check. Bitcoin is up 72% YTD.

Any takers?

A bit hard to turn your back on?

Yeah we might have different situations...I'm in preservation mode more than anything else...If I can get 6-7% per year I'll be fine so that's my goal. I'm not in a situation where I want to lose 30-50% of my money. That would be a very bad outcome at this point in my life. Plus my salary is tied to the stock and bond markets so if there is a loss there, my salary follows it down. A double whammy.

All in all, I don't vary too far from my benchmark, VSMGX, a Vanguard global 60/40 fund. Last year I beat it by 300 bps, this year I am behind it by 200 bps. Mostly because of value stocks...they helped me last year but they are hurting me this year.

Having 40% of my money in bonds means I have no chance to keep up with stocks in an up market like 2023.

Thx. and it is helpful to hear and look under the hood at various strategies and I mean that.