Down goes the Dow

Whatever you say:

“On October 28, 2020, Facebook Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg told the Senate Commerce Committee that his company “throttled the spread” of the New York Post reporting after being warned by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) “to be on ‘heightened alert’ about ‘hack and leak operations’ in the final days before the 2020 election.”33 Later, Mr. Zuckerberg acknowledged Facebook had altered its algorithms to limit the story from being seen by many of its users.34

The actions Facebook and Twitter took against the New York Post greatly suppressed the story and aided the Biden Campaign by discrediting the true reporting. The later revelations that at least Facebook was working at the behest of the FBI raises additional questions about whether the government was working to censor information and limit free discourse.”

Trump was in charge in 2020.

Well, let's see!...

Including today's big uptick so far, the Dow is -1.56 YTD.

NOT including today's big uptick so far, Flagpole is +7.17% YTD.

So, YEP, so far I am killing The Dow this calendar year. Lots of the year left to go though. But, for me it doesn't even matter at this point. I could not only lose to the Dow the rest of my life, but I could go negative every year (which is ridiculous and won't happen) and I'd still have more than enough. If I had my choice though, I'd rather the market continue to go up as it has historically done so that I can leave a sh!t ton to my kids, but what will be will be. I ONLY invested to take care of my own retirement needs, so anything else is gravy.

GLD +8.12% and TLT +5.52% tells you there are other places to go, that may be safer, and deliver better performance as the year progresses.

Well, I DO have a penny (and more) for all the doom and gloom experts who predicted a crash in the markets, who said stocks were dead, who said we can't count on the market to ever go up again, etc. Just nonsense.

"The death of equities" Ha!

"The death of equities: why it's real this time" Ha!

There is RISK that stocks will go down or not perform as well as they have historically which is why investing is only PART of what you should do to achieve financial freedom. The other main part of what you should do is get rid of debt and secure your housing for life (easiest way to do that is own a home outright).

When you have ZERO debt (as I do), then the outgo for two people (who don't have extraordinary circumstances) is SOOOO low. Too many people accept debt as a part of life, and it really doesn't have to be. If you count up a mortgage and car payments, those two alone are a HUGE amount for most people. Add in student loans and credit card debt, and it can be overwhelming.

Most people who have a college education, especially if they are married to someone who also has a college education and who works, should have NO problem not only retiring early but retiring wealthy. There is so much wealth to be made that it is possible for a family to set up their ancestors to never have to work again EVER in as little as two generations...and that's just from regular investing from the income of regular jobs.

this whole thing is overthought.

when the entire intelligence establishment was telling the world and the press 'be very careful about this laptop it could be russian misinformation' then yeah media organizations are correct to muzzle news about it. That's the job of responsible media. They will do that every time.

but then as the story checked out a bit, the muzzle came off in a matter of days I believe.

if someone is saying that the media should be a conduit for all news and not decide what is probably accurate...then they are not living in this world and don't understand the role of the traditional media in the world as a responsible arbiter of news.

and finally, the database of the laptop has been through many hands and many think it has been altered as it moves around. It's not a good news item still.

Flagpole is a tech investor. That explains how he has beaten the market so often...anyone who has had a larger than normal slug of technology stocks would follow the same pattern:

OUTperform up to 2021

UNDERperform in 2022

OUTperform in 2023.

It's just tech. That's his thing. Which is fine, but should be said.

Meh. I only invest in mutual funds. I likely will never invest in individual stocks or commodities...just no need to.

I don't chase best possibilities...that's what gets most people in trouble.

1) Get and stay out of debt.

2) Invest what you don't need today in the stock market in greatly diversified mutual funds.

3) Build up a decent-sized emergency fund that is not tied to the stock market...up to 3 YEARS or even more if you want in retirement.

Invest, invest, invest, and don't take from the pile until you and your spouse are both retired.

I DO have a lot of money in tech, but only because I have a lot of money in everything. I am not heavily weighted in tech stocks. I am crazily diversified. I would not classify myself as a tech investor any more than I would classify myself as a durable goods investor even though I have a ton of money in both things (and other things).

You are probably more heavily weighted in tech than you realize. Most of the more popular mutual funds have a lot of their holdings in tech. Take, for instance, VTI - their largest holdings are Google, AMZN, MSFT and AAPL. That is true for many of the more popular funds.

Interesting point or questions. Index funds are fully invested at all times, this is generally not true of mutual funds. So, I took a look at American Funds positioning in The Growth Fund of America. Currently cash is the largest position at above 8%, and Apple is not in the top ten positions.

morningstar.com

AGTHX – American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A Fund Stock Price | Morningstar

Stephen Welch

AGTHX - American Funds Growth Fund of Amer A - Review the AGTHX stock price, growth, performance, sustainability and more to help you make the best investments.

Link:www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/agthx/q...

^looks like the fund manager is timing the market :-)

*shameful use of intellect…..

Here is one for you. I mentioned before how Vanguard Health has returned about 16% annually since its inception in 1984. That is just crazy remarkable. Look at its annual performance in the last 40 years, especially the first 15 years.

finance.yahoo.com

Vanguard Health Care Fund (VGHCX) Performance History - Yahoo Finance

Current and Historical Performance Performance for Vanguard Health Care Fund on Yahoo Finance.

Link:finance.yahoo.com/quote/VGHCX/performa...

But you have about 60% of its holdings in cash, tech, health care and consumer cyclical.

Interesting.

Comparing it against tech., it seems that they move in similar ways except that tech. moves more drastically, which is both good and bad. During a downturn, tech drops much more. But during the upswings, tech. solidly outperforms. I am seeing this based on performance since 2000, which has had both downturns and bull runs, and significantly so.

BTW, I have just under 3% of my portfolio in the ETF version of the Vanguard Health Care fund, and it is managed by Vanguard as well.

Small cap is a sector i like to have exposure to, as well, and in higher percentage than Health Care.

Here's massive bear Wilson of Morgan Stanley striking out again.

we're four months after this prediction and at SPX 4000 not SPX 3000.

Tom
@TradingThomas3
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says we are going to 2950 in 3-4 months
11:31 AM · Nov 3, 2022

here's an analyst at Wells Fargo in 11/22 saying Q1 2023 would be recessionary.

We are ending the 1Q now and GDP Now has the quarter at +3.2%, although recent data suggest that may be slowing quickly in March.

But still, this pro forecaster made this prediction in November, just a few weeks before the Q1 and was off by at least 3 percentage points on GDP. Incompetent at that short range. Anyone who took his advice and stayed defensive in 2023 has given up very nice gains.

Tweet:

Wells Fargo's Scott Wren: Update
📢 Recession Q1 2023
📢 Remain defensive
📢 Fed to hike a few more times
📢 H2 2023 brighter days

7:50 AM · Nov 25, 2022

Nope. I am exactly weighted in tech as I realize. I DO have a lot of tech. I have not said I don't. BUT, I am not heavily weighted in tech as compared to other sectors. I'm just not. Agip said I was a "tech investor." That implies something I am not. I do not go after any specific sector of the market. I try to be as absolutely diverse as possible...and I am.

it can't be just a wild coincidence that your performance lines up with tech-dominated portfolios.