There was a huge plunge in tech stocks in 2000, 2001, and 2002, NASDAQ returns were - 39.29%, -21.05%, and -31.53%.
Seems he nailed it in 2000
He has predicted the demise of the US stock market for the last quarter century. I can say also that the market will tank every years and one year I might be right. Like a broken clock being correct twice a day.
If - and likely when - the equity market crashes, it will not be "because" of a banking crisis.
I am talking about prudent, mainstream, investing that one might do with retirement savings, family savings, and with the full confidence of the SEC.
I don't understand your point at all. And I don't think we are talking about the same thing.
Just joking, sorry.
No problem.
Somewhere amidst all this, there's some takeaways that might inform young investors. I think they have anything but an easy task ahead of them, and maybe we were just incredibly lucky.
Somewhere amidst all this, there's some takeaways that might inform young investors. I think they have anything but an easy task ahead of them, and maybe we were just incredibly lucky.
I’ve got to be honest. As much as I enjoy the commentary here, I automatically down vote every post regurgitating anything related to Hussman, ZeroHedge, or Henrich. I don’t tolerate fools very well. Just me?
I’ve got to be honest. As much as I enjoy the commentary here, I automatically down vote every post regurgitating anything related to Hussman, ZeroHedge, or Henrich. I don’t tolerate fools very well. Just me?
I don’t even waste my time down voting your troll posts. Just me?
This was made at SPX 3650 or so, in September 2022.
Six months later and this is still the debate everyone is tossing around. The Fed and how it affects asset prices. The market did hit 3490 for a day or two after this post, so in a sense it was accurate. But not really...this analyst is looking for a sustained drop to the 3000-3400 range and he still is, probably. Could be right.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla MORGAN STANLEY: "Can You Hear Me Now?.. It appears investors have finally gotten the message .. with a Fed pivot now undeniably off the table,.. We remain highly convicted.. the bear market in stocks will not be over until the S&P 500 reaches the range of .. 3000-3400.." [Wilson] 8:45 AM · Sep 26, 2022
Also from six months ago...an accurate prediction that inflation would slow. In September we still had 8% CPI...the Nowcast thinks that in March we're down to 5% CPI.
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla MORGAN STANLEY: Core inflation is “on track to decelerate significantly by middle of next year. .. we see drivers of disinflation on the horizon, most notably from a reversal in vehicle prices and a downshift in medical services.” [Zentner] #PCE
Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 27, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 9.34%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 8.33%, and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 moved to third with a YTD gain of 5.30%. India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.24% YTD.
I’ve got to be honest. As much as I enjoy the commentary here, I automatically down vote every post regurgitating anything related to Hussman, ZeroHedge, or Henrich. I don’t tolerate fools very well. Just me?
400k followers on Twitter, this guy. Big gun. He's not a panicky permabear but he's a macro guy so he is usually scared. Back in the fall he noticed that leading indicators suggested 100% chance of recession in March 2023, based on past patterns. Well maybe but GDP Now has us at +3.2% real.
the leading economic indicators have been negative for a while now but have not correctly forecast a slowdown. They've been wrong. Maybe they need to be ignored until we get to a more normal economic period.
Or maybe it's just the post-pandemic period's uniqueness rearing its head again. 100% method failed here. We've had a few of those recently.
Alf @MacroAlf Another terrible print for the US Conference Board Leading Indicator Index When the YoY change turns negative for 2+ months in a row, this index has a 100% hit rate on anticipating recessions with a 7 months average lead time The trigger was hit in August => recession in March?
Igy few will click through to Zero hedge and get a RU cookie on our PCs. If you have a point to make maybe cut and paste it in to a post?
Wikipedia:
In March 2020, American journalist Seth Hettena wrote an opinion-piece in The New Republic titled "Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse?", and provided details on the links between Krassimir Ivandjiiski (the site publisher's Bulgarian father), and Soviet-era activities in propaganda, revealed during litigation initiated by the father against Hettena in the Bulgarian courts.[1] Hettena commented that Zero Hedge has become "a forum for the hateful, conspiracy-driven voices of the angry white men of the alt-right. Racists, anti-Semites, extreme right-wingers, and conspiracy nuts were an underserved audience, and, as it turns out, a profitable one."[1]
The 29 April 2016 "Unmasking Zero Hedge" article by Bloomberg quoted former website staffer Colin Lokey as saying: "I can't be a 24-hour cheerleader for Hezbollah, Moscow, Tehran, Beijing, and Trump anymore. It's wrong. Period. I know it gets you views now, but it will kill your brand over the long run. This isn't a revolution. It's a joke." Lokey told Bloomberg that he was pressured to frame issues in a way he felt was "disingenuous," summarizing its political stances as "Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry=dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."[27] Lokey provided chat transcripts in which Ivandjiiski refers to America's "silent majority" as "beastly", while Backshall acknowledges life in the U.S. is bad "outside of my bubble".[27] Wallace-Wells observed that the site demonstrated a pro-Russia bias, stating the site had a "pointed" Russophilia.[33]
In February 2022, intelligence officials from the United States claimed that Zero Hedge has amplified Russian propaganda by publishing articles written by Russian state-run media.[83][84][85][86][87]
Here's a bear-biased poster, 141k followers. Lots of scaring to do!
Wrong prediction. In fact we were only lower for a couple days this month compared to when he or she made this post.
Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets I still think we make new lows in the S&P 500 this quarter... 9:38 PM · Jan 19, 2023 · 275K Views
If I had a penny for all these doom and gloom "experts" who have predicted a crash in the markets and were wrong I would be a rich man. Well, maybe not Flagpole rich but rich nonetheless.
By Michael Every of Rabobank via Russia and Zerohedge. Let me be clear, and not from the Biden Family compromised news sources of Ukraine and China. :-)
“I loved the Greek myths growing up, and the older I get the more they frame the contemporary world better than most contemporary takes. Among the rich pantheon, I turn to the Hydra in particular, a giant serpent with many heads, where each time you cut off one, two grow back in its place. That’s how the real world works: you don’t solve problems, but create two new ones.
Yesterday’s US consumer confidence data were better than expected at 104.2 post-SVB vs. 103.4 in February. So, less fear of the recession some see looming. However, the survey saw 12-month inflation expectations rise from 6.2% to 6.3%, and ‘jobs are plentiful’ minus ‘jobs are hard to get’ at a still-high 38.8, consistent with a tight labor market. Hence, the Fed need to do more on rates, which then places more potential stress on the banking sector and the economy.”
Here's a bear-biased poster, 141k followers. Lots of scaring to do!
Wrong prediction. In fact we were only lower for a couple days this month compared to when he or she made this post.
Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets I still think we make new lows in the S&P 500 this quarter... 9:38 PM · Jan 19, 2023 · 275K Views
If I had a penny for all these doom and gloom "experts" who have predicted a crash in the markets and were wrong I would be a rich man. Well, maybe not Flagpole rich but rich nonetheless.
One down year and Flagpole is killing the Dow again. :-)
Igy few will click through to Zero hedge and get a RU cookie on our PCs. If you have a point to make maybe cut and paste it in to a post?
Wikipedia:
In March 2020, American journalist Seth Hettena wrote an opinion-piece in The New Republic titled "Is Zero Hedge a Russian Trojan Horse?", and provided details on the links between Krassimir Ivandjiiski (the site publisher's Bulgarian father), and Soviet-era activities in propaganda, revealed during litigation initiated by the father against Hettena in the Bulgarian courts.[1] Hettena commented that Zero Hedge has become "a forum for the hateful, conspiracy-driven voices of the angry white men of the alt-right. Racists, anti-Semites, extreme right-wingers, and conspiracy nuts were an underserved audience, and, as it turns out, a profitable one."[1]
The 29 April 2016 "Unmasking Zero Hedge" article by Bloomberg quoted former website staffer Colin Lokey as saying: "I can't be a 24-hour cheerleader for Hezbollah, Moscow, Tehran, Beijing, and Trump anymore. It's wrong. Period. I know it gets you views now, but it will kill your brand over the long run. This isn't a revolution. It's a joke." Lokey told Bloomberg that he was pressured to frame issues in a way he felt was "disingenuous," summarizing its political stances as "Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry=dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft."[27] Lokey provided chat transcripts in which Ivandjiiski refers to America's "silent majority" as "beastly", while Backshall acknowledges life in the U.S. is bad "outside of my bubble".[27] Wallace-Wells observed that the site demonstrated a pro-Russia bias, stating the site had a "pointed" Russophilia.[33]
In February 2022, intelligence officials from the United States claimed that Zero Hedge has amplified Russian propaganda by publishing articles written by Russian state-run media.[83][84][85][86][87]
House Oversight Committee Biden Family undue influence Tech:
