VIX is weirdly low at just 24 despite the carnage.
I suppose people are thinking the tech giants will save us all.
Could it be that confidence returning to the market in a medium to long term timeframe and we are witnessing sector rotation out of the defensive sectors like value and small cap and into the more inflation sensitive tech/growth sectors?
Sure, and also with these slightly lower interest rates expensive tech stocks look better in discounted cash flow models.
This is for pretty much everybody and I welcome your feedback. The investors who jump in and out of the markets looking for deals pretty much never beat the buy-and-hold crowd. Just too many things going against you.
"Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated." - - Marian McClellan (1934-2003), co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
That notion is beyond simpleminded.
In short, every trade will be effected by the timing thereof, but that doesn't mean that every trade is intended to time the market.
What happens when CRE price discovery vanishes into vacuum? We’ve no idea how to quantify downside.
“The cost to protect debt of Lincoln National, MetLife & Prudential Financial from default jumped Friday as concerns about financial-sector stability weighed on insurance firms.” pic.twitter.com/rMNvPnATAi
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 24, 2023
"Everyone times the market. Some people buy when they have money, and sell when they need money, while others use methods that are more sophisticated." - - Marian McClellan (1934-2003), co-creator of the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index
That notion is beyond simpleminded.
In short, every trade will be effected by the timing thereof, but that doesn't mean that every trade is intended to time the market.
Surely this is obvious to you?
I have referenced this study a couple of times but in a fairly well-known study done in the '90s, it concluded that the performance of one's portfolio is only 4% based on market timing and stock picking (basically both have a negligible effect on your portfolio) and 96% of your portfolio's performance is based on having a wide diversification.
"textbooks focus on simple and obvious cases, like the fact that the levels of asset prices (as opposed to changes) are nonstationary. this is of course true and it is why twitter charlatans are constantly posting spurious-correlation graphs of levels of two variables over time"
Benn Eifert @bennpeifert
but naive prediction of asset returns is not one of them. the tricks they teach in class (split-sample validation, etc) help on the margin but do not address the underlying issue that there is very little signal relative to noise, and signals shift faster than you can learn
imagine being one of 200k people who follow a dude who tweets stupid sht like this without even knowing what the VIX calculation is and why this is both true and totally meaningless https://t.co/wc9IqrwHP6
"imagine being one of 200k people who follow a dude who tweets stupid sht like this without even knowing what the VIX calculation is and why this is both true and totally meaningless"
"textbooks focus on simple and obvious cases, like the fact that the levels of asset prices (as opposed to changes) are nonstationary. this is of course true and it is why twitter charlatans are constantly posting spurious-correlation graphs of levels of two variables over time"
"imagine being one of 200k people who follow a dude who tweets stupid sht like this without even knowing what the VIX calculation is and why this is both true and totally meaningless"
Oh, lordy, they're just roasting Northman Trader on that twitter account.
Not sure if this will post here but here's one of the posts i found particularly funny:
"textbooks focus on simple and obvious cases, like the fact that the levels of asset prices (as opposed to changes) are nonstationary. this is of course true and it is why twitter charlatans are constantly posting spurious-correlation graphs of levels of two variables over time"
"imagine being one of 200k people who follow a dude who tweets stupid sht like this without even knowing what the VIX calculation is and why this is both true and totally meaningless"
Oh, lordy, they're just roasting Northman Trader on that twitter account.
Not sure if this will post here but here's one of the posts i found particularly funny:
They ought to be roasting the Fed, Treasury, and all the politicians of both parties that created this mess. At least some people are:
"She says the system is safe and secure, but it’s obviously not. Years of historical and super-low interest rates distort asset values and risk-taking, and banks can’t be immune from the consequences."https://t.co/wXUuoQtWOd
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 25, 2023
Hi, Igy, and hope that your weekend is going well.
While I find your posts to be usually worthwhile and worth discussion, I cannot say the same for Hussman's almost constant market commentary.
With that said, why would I therefore click on a steady stream of his twitter entries? I wouldn't.
If you are trying to spread his opinions and even his market outlook, maybe invest a bit more in the strategy, like what he's saying and why it appeals to you.
This is esp. true when his fonts are so small, one can't read what he's saying without clicking on it. For example, the previous link you posted of ___ Booth is not really a problem because at least we can read it without clicking on it, precisely because the font is large enough (and it less than 4 sentences).
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
font size is key (see last paragraph)
“This is esp. true when his fonts are so small, one can't read what he's saying without clicking on it. For example, the previous link you posted of ___ Booth is not really a problem because at least we can read it without clicking on it, precisely because the font is large enough (and it less than 4 sentences).”
Seattle, a little tired in the thighs after alpine skiing yesterday with my son. Just reading news on commercial real estate. In regards to the small font, my fifth generation iPad (discontinued March 2018), from that great innovator Apple, works wonderfully. Your simple click on a much newer, more innovative iPad, would be well worth the effort.
Stock prices climbed Thursday and again Friday, right after the Fed raised interest rates, and not because corporate earnings are killing it, inflation has been put to rest, or the economic forecas…
So convenient. A warrant is like a call option. It only "repays" the government if the bank survives, isn't sold, or is bought at a meaningful stock price.
Given depositor preference - Title 12 Sec 1821(11)(A) - even taking cumulative preferred would leave the public on the hook https://t.co/YdyVGjzVpV