yeah, yellen, plus people did some math and the only way the Fed's GDP estimate works is if we go into a recession for the rest of the year, starting now.
Igy - would you agree that we should have a monster good year based on history? The ensuing years after bad years have always been tremendous ones. Why won't history repeat itself?
Igy - would you agree that we should have a monster good year based on history? The ensuing years after bad years have always been tremendous ones. Why won't history repeat itself?
Huh? The Fed just told you things are likely to get worse.
So this year will be the exception? After almost 50 years of massive rebounds after bad years, THIS will be the first year to have a bad year?
Huh? The Fed just told you things are likely to get worse.
So this year will be the exception? After almost 50 years of massive rebounds after bad years, THIS will be the first year to have a bad year?
Are we going back to the poor use of statistics again? I answered that several days ago. I think you are naive to believe that has any credibility at all.
So this year will be the exception? After almost 50 years of massive rebounds after bad years, THIS will be the first year to have a bad year?
Are we going back to the poor use of statistics again? I answered that several days ago. I think you are naive to believe that has any credibility at all.
Serious question for you - have you ever predicted a good year for the market? Can you provide an example if you have?
You would do yourself a favor by reading beyond pieces spoon fed to you by entities selling you their inventory (stocks).
“That the rate of interest will be lower when commerce languishes and when there is little demand for money, than when the energies of commerce are in full play and there is an active demand for money, is indisputable; but it is equally beyond doubt, that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money.”
You would do yourself a favor by reading beyond pieces spoon fed to you by entities selling you their inventory (stocks).
“That the rate of interest will be lower when commerce languishes and when there is little demand for money, than when the energies of commerce are in full play and there is an active demand for money, is indisputable; but it is equally beyond doubt, that every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money.”
– The Economist, 1858
I don't really feast on entities selling me their stocks.
i feast on how the market has done the last 50 years. I feast on that. And the fruits of that have been quite plentiful.
Are we going back to the poor use of statistics again? I answered that several days ago. I think you are naive to believe that has any credibility at all.
Serious question for you - have you ever predicted a good year for the market? Can you provide an example if you have?
Upon the invasion of Ukraine I began accumulating EM bond CEF EMD and later FAX. They currently represent approximately 40% of my portfolio. I reinvest dividends, and have strategically bought and sold along the way. At the start of the year I was up about 15-20% on each, currently my return is 7% and 9%. Last week with the dollar up and funds down I added to each.
Serious question for you - have you ever predicted a good year for the market? Can you provide an example if you have?
Upon the invasion of Ukraine I began accumulating EM bond CEF EMD and later FAX. They currently represent approximately 40% of my portfolio. I reinvest dividends, and have strategically bought and sold along the way. At the start of the year I was up about 15-20% on each, currently my return is 7% and 9%. Last week with the dollar up and funds down I added to each.
So you refuse to say if you have ever predicted a good year for the market. All I am asking is one thing, have you ever predicted the market would have a good year?
Are we going back to the poor use of statistics again? I answered that several days ago. I think you are naive to believe that has any credibility at all.
Serious question for you - have you ever predicted a good year for the market? Can you provide an example if you have?
I probably bought my first stock fund when you were in junior high. If you wish to review my posts you will find me writing I purchased MS common and preferred at the time of the Lehman bankruptcy and double up S&P 500 fund with about 30% of my liquid net worth. About the fall of 2020 when most posters here were touting the benefits of green energy I was buying XLE. My only regret is that I sold too soon.
It is true that I underestimated the lengths that the Fed, Treasury, and Government would do to damage market pricing and create this most extreme bubble. Fortunately, somewhat earlier I purchased real estate that kept pace with the market. A cancer diagnosis that if left undiscovered or untreated would have killed me by now. Certainly from that point in 2018 and thru Covid years I had no interest in anything other than a conservative approach. I have been much more active since 2021 because it is clear the fever has broken. Still I am more focused on paying off my house, which has been attainable with my investments and inflation adjusted Social Security. :-)
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
During my coaching career and early years of my financial services career I was heavily weighted to equities, but always had some allocation to bonds as portfolio ballast. I am also a firm believer that prices matters, which admittedly was not a benefit the period 2015-21. However, it certainly was March 2020. That said, anyone in the financial services industry would not have prospered as I did with a negative market view. But, I believe I am but one of a few here that invested my and other peoples money during the Tech and Housing Bubbles. Most who were active in those years understands what is at stake here.
In the end this thread is more about arguing ideas than winning or losing. In an earlier post I believe my more conservative allocation was quite similar to Newly Retired, since we had money in other investment vehicles. Each of us chooses priorities. Our family was to keep my wife as stay at home mother, carrying for elderly parents, and investing in our children’s education. We enjoy staying at home, supporting our purchase a decade ago.
That pretty much sums it up. Not much more I can say to make you understand.
This post was edited 5 minutes after it was posted.
“My own inclination would be to hike the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point, coupled with language acknowledging the Fed’s commitment to a stable banking system, and noting that even modest credit strains, as we’ve observed, tend to put downward pressure on inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to achieve its inflation objectives with a lower terminal Fed Funds rate.”
“My own inclination would be to hike the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point, coupled with language acknowledging the Fed’s commitment to a stable banking system, and noting that even modest credit strains, as we’ve observed, tend to put downward pressure on inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to achieve its inflation objectives with a lower terminal Fed Funds rate.”
John Hussman, two days before Fed announcement
So you’re bragging that he was one of a thousand talking heads who correctly guessed what the Fed would do?
“My own inclination would be to hike the Fed Funds rate by a quarter point, coupled with language acknowledging the Fed’s commitment to a stable banking system, and noting that even modest credit strains, as we’ve observed, tend to put downward pressure on inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to achieve its inflation objectives with a lower terminal Fed Funds rate.”
John Hussman, two days before Fed announcement
So you’re bragging that he was one of a thousand talking heads who correctly guessed what the Fed would do?
OK, but better than Goldman Slacks, all their resources, predicting no cut.
Lots of false guesstimates on CRE market: the facts - size of CRE market is $11 trillion, $4.5 trillion in debt outstanding, banks account for 38% (small banks 28%, large banks 7%). The bulk of small bank deposit growth has gone into CRE pic.twitter.com/qJszA4fSkg
Igy - would you agree that we should have a monster good year based on history? The ensuing years after bad years have always been tremendous ones. Why won't history repeat itself?
Oh, you mean your fallacious assertion. First, remove 3 years of data that contradict your thesis. Second, omit earlier years of data that do not support your thesis. Third, disregard data with a longer history. You have been reported to the statistic's police. I wouldn't sweat it too much, there's a long line ahead of you. I reported agip months ago and he's still in the back of the queue. Seems to be a big backlog of reports from LR.C.
Looking at S&P 500 Total Return from 1927 to 2022, there's a 32% chance the following year will be negative and average loss is 20.08% and average gain is 28.02%. Kelly Criterion says bet 45% of your bankroll ( Allocate 45% of your portfolio to S&P 500 ). Looking at total history, only 27.4% of the years are negative and average loss is -13.49% and average gain is 20.92% ( Kelly is 55% ). Interestingly, after a positive year, the probability the following year is negative is 26.1% and the average loss is 10.55% and the average gain is 18.11% ( Kelly is 58.7% ). UK data of over 300 years shows 44% of the following years are negative, but that is Price Return not Total Return. If you included dividend reinvestment it's probably mid to upper thirties negative. So applying your logic, one should expect 1/3 chance the following year will be negative with higher than average losses.
Now the final problem with your "research", actually 2 problems ( GoI has already pointed out another problem as well ). We are arbitrarily using year to year ending in Dec., not rolling 12 month data. The 2nd problem, this isn't like the laws of physics, as the disclaimers say, past performance is not predicative of future performance. Now if you're just starting out you can ignore this ( unless you're a fraidy cat ) but those who are retired; near retirement or say CIO of the ANTIFA Pension Fund ; CIO of The Patrice Lumumba Communist Martyr Endowment Fund, this should be on your radar.