Down goes the Dow

“Faced with a zero-interest rate world that combined ‘fear of missing out’ with a belief that ‘there is no alternative’ to yield-seeking speculation, investors unwittingly drove the most reliable stock market valuation measures to levels beyond the 1929 and 2000 extremes. Unfortunately, those valuations also imply dismal long-term returns in any world not permanently dominated by FOMO and TINA psychology. Measured from the recent bubble peak, the likely consequence will be a long, interesting, 10-20 year trip to nowhere for the S&P 500.”

– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., Repricing a Market Priced for Zero, April 2022

Permabear.

Sally, I'm going to give you credit where credit is due. Other than ME, you are the most consistently correct and good poster on the stock market and investing here at Letsrun. Yep. I said it...because it's true. Props, brother...and I hope your health is good.

With his unbreakable permabear attitude, I don't know how he EVER has invested even a penny into any stock and why he's interested in the stock market at all. What I am CERTAIN about though is that he is much less wealthy than he could have been if he hadn't chased peaks and valleys all the time and if he invested a proper amount...I mean, I don't KNOW how much money he has invested annually over the years, but fraidy cats don't jump fully into the fight...know what I mean?

Blowhard’s gonna blow hard…

Oh, the irony!

Truth is truth, and I speak the truth.

Think about this in the wake of Biden’s veto. The bank that beat embodied his ESG, cultural and environmental policies just went broke.

Quite the compliment, Flagpole. Thanks. Our investing philosophies are quite similar. Thanks especially on the health well wishes! Hope you and the missus are doing well as well.

To follow up that chart I posted yesterday, and this is looking at the NASDAQ (but all the markets trend fairly closely together, since 1975 (ignoring 2000-2002) the market has had 37 up years and 9 down years.

Here is how the market has followed each down year:

1981 Down 3.2%

1982 Up 18.7%

1984 Down 11%

1985 Up 31%

1987 Down 5%

1988 Up 15%

1990 Down 17%

1991 Up 56%

1993 Down 3%

1994 Up 40%

2008 Down 40%

2009 Up 44%

2011 Down 1%

20012 Up 15%

2019 Down 3%

2020 Up 35%

2022 Down 33%

2023 Up 11% (with the rest of year remaining)

So since 1975 (again ignoring 2000-2002) the NASDAQ has only had 9 bad years versus 37 good years and the 9 bad years were pretty much always followed by a much better good year.

Glad your health is on the mend, Sally.

In regards to your, and Flagpole’s posts, the two of you are guilty of relying upon meaningless statistics. NASDAQ loss in 2022 would required well over 50% return in 2023 to get back to even. During the time period of 2000-2016 the NASDAQ underperformed most asset classes, including Treasury Bills. If you look at the problems in SVB and First Republic banks, the tech layoffs, cyclical nature of tech, and stress in venture capital, I would think technology would be one of the last sectors to focus for a buy. A short, perhaps yes. But you two continue to go back to the last decade playbook, praying the next ten years will look the same. Doubtful, but I’m a “permabear” with a “75 IQ,” I mean “really.”

Pomboy said that? Good lord that's one for the 'lack of self-awareness Olympics.'

Pomboy has been wrong eternally and endlessly, for decades. Geez. She still thinks she herself is not a charlatan?

here's pomboy in March 2020, at one of the great buying opportunities of our lifetimes. And this is just one - she's been calling for doom forever.

I mean have 6 oz of self-awareness, Pomboy.

steph pomboy
@spomboy
you are @ HERE. after the 'flush' last week, the market is still at its 2nd highest valuation in history. this ratio has averaged 100% over the last 3 decades. getting back to that would require lopping another $8t off mtk cap. (that's assuming we neatly revert to the mean).

Oh, the irony!

1) You ARE a permabear...that is inarguable.

2) Not sure where the 75 IQ came from, but I never said you had a 75 IQ.

3) I am not relying on meaningless statistics at all. The market goes up 73% of the time on an annual basis and UP overall...that's all I need to know.

4) I GUARANTEE you that I have more money made from investments than you do, and I'm younger than you, so you have nothing to offer me, and your criticism of me is meaningless. I am wealthier beyond my wildest dreams due to heavy and unfettered investing since 1989. With your fraidy cat attitude, it is clear that you are NOT wealthier beyond your wildest dreams.

5) You doing your permabear thing by mentioning some current bad things in the marketplace...dude, there are ALWAYS bad things to be found in ANY market at ANY time. YOU focus on those constantly because you are a permabear.

Image:media.tenor.com/29tK7qT6G10AAAAM/wavin...

Five of eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through March 20, 2023. France's CAC 40 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 8.33%. Germany's DAXK finished second with a YTD gain of 6.94%, and China's Shanghai moved to third with a YTD gain of 4.71%. London's FTSE 100 dropped into the red for the first time this year and is currently sitting at a YTD loss of 0.64%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is also in the red for a second consecutive week and India's BSE SENSEX finished last with a loss of 5.28% YTD.