Down goes the Dow

So, its OK for the Fed to go 50, right?

Nice day for the markets so far. Where are all these so-called "experts" who predicted a collapse of the stock market for the last few years. No one will ever remember the demise they predicted but then you will have another 10,000 predicting a similar collapse over the next few years. They are never held accountable for their lousy predictions. The ONE person who predicts a meltdown of the markets and it happens around the time he or she predicts will be proclaimed as clairvoyant.

I guess it's a glass half full or half empty phenomenon.

Rebounding into a new bull market or is it a bear market rally?

And even when we have a sustained bull market, the mantra becomes 'oh, boy-o boy, are you ever going to pay for this mismanaging before we're through, tomorrow, or the day after that, but definitely sometime, and without exception.'

One can ignore earnings trending down, recessionary signals, monetary and fiscal policy limitations, growing layoffs, and believe the December 31, 2021 market valuation is the future.

hate to tell you this Igy but when this stuff is in the news and stocks have already fallen 25% in this cycle...that's usually all you get. Usually stocks will rise even as earnings fall after that initial price drop.

Of course there could be a new problem that can knock the market down (hello banking crisis), but the market is quite aware of falling earnings and monetary and fiscal policy. The market reads the newspapers.

Crypto is playing into the barbell approach. Clip 5%+ Tbills and then risk on with a little bit.

Let me respond this way. At the peak of response for the GFC bank deposit were covered from $100,000 per account holder to $250,000. Now in response to this crisis all balances are covered for essentially one year, under my reading. This event is not the culminating crisis, but rather one of many. I said years ago the Republican tax cut was a mistake, all the Government stimulus, and the same for Fed zero interest rate policies. Think whatever you like. Personally bought back about one third of leveraged shorts I sold over the last three trading days ending yesterday. I plan to rinse and repeat, but control my risk, because anything can happen, and it really has. So good luck to all of you. I only wish you the best, everything else are intellectual arguments coming from the 75 IQ guy.

Hey Igy, do you have a vegan daughter, or maybe granddaughter? We just had dinner in Malaga next to a lady from Idaho travelling across southern Spain and into Portugal. I’d guess mid 30s to early 40s, although I’m an awful judge of age. Didn’t catch a name, but she was friendly and had spent a fair bit of time in the mountain regions north of the 49th parallel.

Funny. No, daughter is an omnivore. She and her husband do like to travel though. She is in the same profession as Maserati, and will likely make it to Europe one day. Portugal seems like a great place, and Carlos Lopes is one of my favorites. Enjoy.

SP500 at 3919, 200-day moving average is 3940

Would be surprising to move above the 200-day in the middle of a financial crisis.

Unless it's not a financial crisis I suppose.

I guess the point is that at some point shorts have to say 'ok I was right! Market fell a lot!' And then walk away, or flip to being long. You won - you were right. Market dropped a lot: 25%. Double a normal annual drop.

Expecting more than that 25%, especially now that it's been five months since a low and the news is probably out there...is sticking your neck out.

OK, good point.

Not part of a larger problem. Its OK.

cnbc.com

Diamond Sports, largest owner of regional sports networks, files for bankruptcy

https://www.facebook.com/CNBC

Diamond Sports has filed for bankruptcy protection with plans to eliminate more than $8 billion in debt.

Link:www.cnbc.com/2023/03/14/diamond-sports...

SVB failure not a good look for technology:

cnbc.com

SVB's failure will have a ripple effect across technology 'for years to come'

https://www.facebook.com/CNBC

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse is likely to be felt across the technology landscape globally over the coming years.

Link:www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/svbs-failure-w...

Credit Suisse plunges most on record. European stocks down 2+%, U.S. futures wipe out yesterday’s gains.

Good for me.

Need a real crash today.

Dumped Tesla so no longer hedging bets against market.

Need it to go down. And then down some more

Sold about 25% of leveraged shorts I bought yesterday. As things deteriorate I get more concerned of derivative fulfillment. Things can get so bad counter parties blow up, and you never know where all the dead bodies are. A much more serious situation than just a general market decline. Not saying that is what this is, but looks pretty shaky.