Tuesday, Valentine's Day, is January CPI release. Consensus is 0.5% and core is 0.4%. Will we see a St Valentine's Day Massacre or will Mardi Gras arrive a week early? Implied volatility for $SPX options expiring 2/13 is 12.28%, and those on 12/14 is 23.67% ! Some investors have hedged.
Tuesday, Valentine's Day, is January CPI release. Consensus is 0.5% and core is 0.4%. Will we see a St Valentine's Day Massacre or will Mardi Gras arrive a week early? Implied volatility for $SPX options expiring 2/13 is 12.28%, and those on 12/14 is 23.67% ! Some investors have hedged.
LOL. The weather now here is like 75. My stepson up in Ann Arbor and is hating it. It has been so cold his tires went flat.
Yesterday afternoon the prediction was for some light snow flurries typical this time of the year. At 3:00 pm I went for a walk/run on a hilly loop in the Boise Foothill Trail System. By 4:00 pm snow was heavy, only one out, trying to get back to the car as the surface was getting muddy slippery. Kept an eye out for hungry predators. Anyway, wife texted “Where are you?” Woke up this morning to white everywhere.
Right but think about it like this ... it typically has one bad year each decade but the rest of the time the index is up wildly or just up. 16 years for two decades up wildly or up mildly with a couple of bad years with 2 very mild losses.
US economy continues to accelerate. Certainly no recession this quarter or next quarter, unless something comes out of outer space. GDP Now just upped the Fed's estimate of 1Q econ growth again.
But inflation continues to moderate. Sort of a perfect situation for stocks. The hope is that earnings will stop falling as the economy has steady growth.
US economy continues to accelerate. Certainly no recession this quarter or next quarter, unless something comes out of outer space. GDP Now just upped the Fed's estimate of 1Q econ growth again.
But inflation continues to moderate. Sort of a perfect situation for stocks. The hope is that earnings will stop falling as the economy has steady growth.
Latest estimate: 2.4 percent — February 15, 2023
Yes, it makes one wonder if this could be the sort of "soft landing" the Fed has been working for.
Just a big concern for investors that an aggressive Fed could dampen growth to the extent that it even causes a recession. So lots of conjecture with each new data point as to how the Fed is going to react to it.
Makes me wish I took economics back in college (which I didn't)...
US economy continues to accelerate. Certainly no recession this quarter or next quarter, unless something comes out of outer space. GDP Now just upped the Fed's estimate of 1Q econ growth again.
But inflation continues to moderate. Sort of a perfect situation for stocks. The hope is that earnings will stop falling as the economy has steady growth.
Latest estimate: 2.4 percent — February 15, 2023
Yes, it makes one wonder if this could be the sort of "soft landing" the Fed has been working for.
Just a big concern for investors that an aggressive Fed could dampen growth to the extent that it even causes a recession. So lots of conjecture with each new data point as to how the Fed is going to react to it.
Makes me wish I took economics back in college (which I didn't)...
I took my wife out to a nice restaurant last night. The place was packed, roads were busy on the way over at 5:00 pm. Ran into a former colleague at dinner, he said most back in the office everyday. The one house available in the neighborhood sold last week, and there have been workmen ever since. Who knows?
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Yes, it makes one wonder if this could be the sort of "soft landing" the Fed has been working for.
Just a big concern for investors that an aggressive Fed could dampen growth to the extent that it even causes a recession. So lots of conjecture with each new data point as to how the Fed is going to react to it.
Makes me wish I took economics back in college (which I didn't)...
I took my wife out to a nice restaurant last night. The place was packed, roads were busy on the way over at 5:00 pm. Ran into a former colleague at dinner, he said most back in the office everyday. The one house available in the neighborhood sold last week, and there have been workmen every since. Who knows?
You know the adage, never bet against the American consumer.
I think i heard that the areas impacting CPI (outside of food and energy) to the upside were restaurants, recreation, housing (a biggie, and sometime excluding from the Core calculation), vehicles, among others. People are getting back out and doing things, and their not being scared by the threat of an economic downturn very much.
Housing sales around here still seem to be moving slower at the present, but it's not as if sellers have been lowering the asking price, so I've heard.
Tuesday, Valentine's Day, is January CPI release. Consensus is 0.5% and core is 0.4%. Will we see a St Valentine's Day Massacre or will Mardi Gras arrive a week early? Implied volatility for $SPX options expiring 2/13 is 12.28%, and those on 12/14 is 23.67% ! Some investors have hedged.
US economy continues to accelerate. Certainly no recession this quarter or next quarter, unless something comes out of outer space. GDP Now just upped the Fed's estimate of 1Q econ growth again.
But inflation continues to moderate. Sort of a perfect situation for stocks. The hope is that earnings will stop falling as the economy has steady growth.
Latest estimate: 2.4 percent — February 15, 2023
and today up another tick. Not great for those who think the Fed is the main force in financial markets, but good for the real economy.
GDP Now:
Latest estimate: 2.5 percent — February 16, 2023
BTW the Fed thinks PCE inflation is running at just 3.47%. But a wide spread depending on how you measure inflation. But 3.47% is a pretty good number, and dropping a bit this month.
🌎 Where I disagree with the current equity market sentiment... monetary tightening takes time to run through the economy. My models still say later, deeper and longer recession... pic.twitter.com/s4a7eJWtm9
