I told you that I had a hunch that would happen: as I said yesterday:
"Yes. I think the issue with china and their covid travails have been so widely publicized and the impact on Apple's suppliers and fabricators already felt, that the impacts on their bottom line may be priced in already nd won't be a surprise, should the numbers be less than stellar. Okay, my hunch is that it will be used as reason for some selling and profit taking, but will rapidly be pounced upon by longer term investors to load up, thereby reversing a short term selloff."
"contemplate the crucial fact that market ‘insurance’ itself is critically, reflexively involved in the probabilities of its own outcomes...& so it is that, when people are all hedged, market events tend not to realize, & when they are not they tend to. Hence Brexit Hence 2016"
ok, i waded through all this and it would seem that a key takeaway is that the large option traders open positions based on emerging interest/orders and then proceed to hedge those positions so as to safeguard their positions, with the aim of yielding some nominal delta through which they reap their margin. The impact on the market changes based on things like liquidity, length of time to expiration, amount, etc. And it all works fine as long as big unexpected events doing materialize. Correct me if I am wrong.
Another fact is that a window into the options market reveals a lot about market moves, especially in the short term.
Feel free to correct or append what I thought/said.
Just look at each put/call ratio; who was hedged and who was betting heavy to the upside?
The part that makes sense to me in this is the column "% change".
I wonder in the case of the Options secrion though, do those numbers materialize pre-market or does it reflect interest the whole day (including during market hours). The reason I ask is that overnight options (while markets are closed) often have big moves and one might think that it is there that these positions originate, but not necessarily...
I believe if you challenge someone’s belief system it makes them uncomfortable. Leads them to draw conclusions that are not relevant to the conversation.
You were a slow nobody with no accomplishments at OSU. Then you were a failed coach. Clown status. Now you spend your time being an arrogant prick when you’re always wrong about the market. You spend your entire life here trying to act like a know it all. Nobody respects or likes you on here or in real life.
You were a slow nobody with no accomplishments at OSU. Then you were a failed coach. Clown status. Now you spend your time being an arrogant prick when you’re always wrong about the market. You spend your entire life here trying to act like a know it all. Nobody respects or likes you on here or in real life.
Reid Harter (ghost of igloi) = slow dumb bitter nobody
4:54 1500m age 57, age graded 85; 2:57 marathon age 54, one of the longest expanse from first sub 3:00 to last; fastest US M55 track 5,000 2006 18:02.All before super shoes.
Seriously this is not a great setup. Bad and getting worse. Stocks are rallying though, whch suggests the 2h23 will be much better. Take out energy and it's far worse.
Plus we're in extreme greed teritory, per CNN's greed and fear meter.
(the sp500) is reporting lower earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings decline for the fourth quarter is -5.3% today,compared to an earnings decline of -5.1% last week and an earnings decline of -3.3% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).
Reid Harter (ghost of igloi) = slow dumb bitter nobody
1974 AAU 30 Kilometer Champion medal, patches, loop record at the time 1:35:30 or 5:08 per mile; 1974 Boston medal 13th 2:19:15 one place ahead of Bill Rodgers.
Investors withdrew a net $620.2M from State Street's SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond in the latest session for which data is available, reducing the fund's assets by 6 percent to $9.8 billion…fund has attracted net inflows of $2.59B in the past year.@businesshttps://t.co/ti1E48nQldpic.twitter.com/fK7KDEy0z4
yeah but to be fair I own short term junk, not the longer term junk in the ETF mentioned.
seems to be a cliff in junk...not much is coming due in the next 3-4 years but there is a ton of it that will need to be rolled over in the 6 year zone. So my understanding is that not a lot of companies will be hurt by having to roll over debt at higher interest rates until 2028-2029 or so.
So SJNK is probably far safer than HYG or JNK. At least that's the thesis.
I'm thinking of adding to SJNK...seems like a good setup for high yield right now...stocks are expensive and there is no earnings growth so stocks don't seem to have much upside...but there is no recession either, so defaults should stay low on junk.
So you get your 7-8% from junk with only half the risk of stocks. Fingers crossed anyway.