When has Rupp failed to make a championship team he set out to make? Seriously, I can't think of one example. He's clearly a notch or two better than the field by virtue of his 10k PR. His half PR is better than almost anyone in the field and was run on a hilly course. He's not just a time trialer like Estrada. He's beaten every US guy to speak of at multiple distances. The only hope people have is if he miscalculates and lets it be a slow enough race to let all the 2:12+ guys stay in it and then has GI or fueling issues late. Or just has GI or fueling issues generally.