ScottEvil wrote:
dumb guy you wrote:You guys are dumb. That is not well said at all.
One of your statements is just flat out a lie. Farah cannot run a 51-53 in all types of races. He's only ever won using the same tactic.
Ok...not ALL types of races. But surely you'd admit there's been some variation at the championship/diamond league level? 2011 was a 13:23 race, his PR is from winning a 12:53. 30 seconds? What about the Pre 10k he won in the 26:40s? Yes he hasn't shown the ability to win sub 12:50 or sub 26:40 races. I addressed that in my very next sentence. It's an unknown quantity. Just like marathoners' ability to win in those ranges is an unknown quantity. Let's say that I grant that every marathoner has equal to or greater than Wanjiru 10k capacity. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THEY HAVE A GOOD KICK. You are so confident in this unrealized potential outcome...But we just don't know.
They have moved up to the marathon and roads for MONEY. There is no money in track races for a 5th place finisher. Nor or there very many 5ks and 10ks at all per year. There is a multitude of major marathons and the road races per year compared to track.
Oh? You feel confident, looking at this observational data, that your explanatory variable accounts for ALL of the change? That the self-selection isn't even possible? Pray tell, how did you come about such valuable information about a counter-factual?
They aren't good. They are fast but dumb. Or maybe this stems from my prior point of them not being able to stay in shape for any length of time which would make it impossible to use a fast race tactic because they are no longer in that shape. Who knows. But either way, these guys aren't good.
Ok...Once again, the overconfidence problem. There are a lot of possible theories that fit the data we have. You feel very confident in your theory and dismissing other possibilities as "dumb." Is it possible -just possible - that many of these factors could be in play at once?
No, you are even dumber now.
1. Nowhere did I say that I was confident or overconfident in marathoners ability to move down. Nor did I say that they would have a good kick. A kick isn't even necessary to be successful. All I did was show examples that it is easily possible that some of these marathoners could move down and be successful. I even mentioned specific names of people who have been successful at both distances. So you're wrong. We DO know. Or are you going to tell me that Geb and Wanjiru never ran a 10k? It's not unrealized potential. It has actually happened.
2. I don't know what your obsession is with the word "confident". Nowhere in my post did I say that "ALL" of the change is because of more opportunities on the road. Nor did I say that self selection was impossible. You're creating arguments that don't exist. All I did was provide a rational and easily possible explanation for the move to the roads. It makes sense. You know it does. Don't be stupid.
3. There's your weird obsession with "confident" again. You're displaying your dumbness here again. There very thing you accuse me of not doing, I in fact did do in the very paragraph you mentioned. I listed explanations that could happen independently or that could come into play at the same time. Please tell me what other possibilities would explain the data we have? You're either not fast enough or dumb at racing tactics or both. There are no other other options unless you want to include indirect things like bribery, etc.