Rupp has reached his maximum performances - 13:00 and 27:10 - he was high school phenom who plateued.

Hey OP,

11/10. I gave you a 10/10 just because Wejo commented on this thread, but I gave you a bonus point because he called you a troll. Hahahaha way to go Wejo and way to go OP!

thisll bust your buns wrote:

Rupp dominated the 10K over the collegiate record holder for 10,000 and he would have been a contender for the 1500 title against guys with faster PRs.

I disagree with you on the 1500m part of your statement. Rupp would have been the 4th best 1500m guy on the

Oregon team this year. Granted the top 3 went 1-3 at NCAAs, but Rupp is currently a 3:39/3:56 guy.

Before last year Rupp spent a lot of time running the mile and was a 4:00 guy. He has gotten a lot of speed but does not have the speed currently to win NCAAs.

Would he make the final? Yes. Win it. No.

There's no way to know for sure what an athlete's physical peak is or was until after the fact, but it's a pretty safe bet than a runner whose times are still improving steadily, and who has only been running as a pro for a few months, isn't past the peak yet.

Rupp prefers 5k and 10k. Those are what he trains for. Those are what he has set his focus on.

Unless he specifically starts training for 1500m we'll never know what he can do. It's best not to speculate whether someone like Rupp would have been a contender at 1500m. It's better to ask "I wonder if Rupp could run a really fast 1500 if he trained for the distance."

Power Blaster wrote:

I agree, I think think Wejo is way off base on this one. Poverty may have had something to do with what got them there in the first place, but once you reach the highest level the best person usually wins and it doesn't matter how much money they have.

There are 2 related factors: 1) The necessity to win and the 2) Knowing you can win.

Solinsky and a lot of Americans still struggle with #2.

He finished 5th in a race in Europe and everyone over here goes crazy on his performance.

I remember going to a track in Kenya. I met a 2:06 800m runner. He, yes HE, talked about how he might run professionally or get a college scholarship. Granted he had only been running a few months. But why did he think like this? Because a ton of people he saw around him, did this. Thus it was in the realm of possibility. The running talent in Kenya is concentrated by in large with the Kalenjin areas.

Turning to another example, I think one of the reasons Lemaitre is so good at sprinting is it sounds like he as a nerd and didn't really follow the sport so he didn't realize that some people think that white guys aren't supposed to run that fast. LeMaitre doesn't let others expectations affect his own.

Before you say that is crazy, Look at the NBA. Nearly all the top white players are European. Statistically that is crazy. Why does it happen? Because I think somewhere in the back of the mind of the white players from the US is the idea, "I can't be the best". It's stupid to attribute anything into one point but expectations play a big roll in anyone's performance

I'm not trying to make this completely based on race although I think people do identify with like minded people and race is one attribute people relate too.

However, if I found a black 2:06 runner in S. Africa at the track, I doubt he'd be telling me he could be a pro runner.

From my own performance as a runner at the 2003 nationals with a mile to go in the 10k, it was Meb, Alan, Abdi and me. I was super excited to be up there. It was totally uncharted territories based on my running that year. Never did it cross my mind, "I have to win this race" or even "I can win this race." If you're not thinking it, it's not going to happen.

I think one thing these guys get from being with Alberto is the idea that they can be the best. Alberto was the best of the world and can instill some of that in the guys he coaches or who are out in Portland.

Agree that low expectations limit success. However I think champions are wired to think differently. I also think many of our best athletes go into other sports, which is the real issue.

Another take on this subject is in Malcolm Gladwell's "Outliers". Many successful people were aided quite a bit by circumstance (even including what month they were born in), but they still stepped through the door and took the opportunity.

I find the thread on cross country impacting (negatively) soccer performance is also interesting. Clearly, running XC COULD be a negative for soccer, but it doesn't HAVE to be. Some of that is mental as well. Moreover the endurance gained from distance running probably has more benefit than any negative from losing burst speed. But if soccer coaches are successful in getting kids to quit cross country, maybe some good runners will have been lost.

You are right about cultural influences shaping success in sports. There is a reason South Korea is good at speed skating, Kenya is good at distance running, and Australia is good at swimming. However I do not believe any country has any monopoly on championship athletes. There is no reason whatsoever that American distance runners couldn't dominate in the future. But, the forces that attract kids to other sports are pretty strong, and those would likely have to change first.

The name of the game is to beat the guys around you. No point in lining up on the start line if you're not willing to put it all out there and try to win.

Just ask German, he knows what's up.

Not sure if this is true with Rupp but the opening premise definitely describes Jonathan Riley- a guy who had run a lot since well before HS, and so in college and as a pro, didn't have a lot of room for improvement- he was pretty much near his potential very early on. The opposite example of this is Bob Kennedy- a guy who didn't run a lot until after college and then later as a pro hit high volume training and saw huge improvement. Anyone know exactly where Rupp fits in this spectrum?

wejo wrote:

thisll bust your buns wrote:

Rupp dominated the 10K over the collegiate record holder for 10,000 and he would have been a contender for the 1500 title against guys with faster PRs.

I disagree with you on the 1500m part of your statement. Rupp would have been the 4th best 1500m guy on the

Oregon team this year. Granted the top 3 went 1-3 at NCAAs, but Rupp is currently a 3:39/3:56 guy.

Before last year Rupp spent a lot of time running the mile and was a 4:00 guy. He has gotten a lot of speed but does not have the speed currently to win NCAAs.

Would he make the final? Yes. Win it. No.

He blasted Ulrey (3:35)on the DMR mile while tripling. He blasted away and held off Wheating (1:45.0/3:38 back then), Coe 3:39?) and Heath (3:37) at the pac-10 1500 the day after his 5000. Wheating didn't run regionals, but Rupp held off all the same guys again only beaten by Centro (3:36) again while doubling with the 5000 the night before.

Heath was runner up at NCAA's. Rupp certainly had a shot.

MarathonMind wrote:

Not sure if this is true with Rupp but the opening premise definitely describes Jonathan Riley- a guy who had run a lot since well before HS, and so in college and as a pro, didn't have a lot of room for improvement- he was pretty much near his potential very early on. The opposite example of this is Bob Kennedy- a guy who didn't run a lot until after college and then later as a pro hit high volume training and saw huge improvement. Anyone know exactly where Rupp fits in this spectrum?

He's improved 2 minutes from 29:09 already, and it wasn't exactly an ideal 10K during that critical 2500 meters with 3 guys lurking on him. What do you think?

The question is how many miles a week was he running 3 years ago vs. now.

If Solinsky hadn't dropped a sub 27 in that race then we'd be marvelling at Rupp - holder of the American record at 10000m - and wondering what miracles he'd perform next.

Careful observer wrote:

Theres probably dozens of kenyans who have sub 12:55 credencials who have never won a 5k medal.

According to the IAAF, there are only 19 Kenyans who have sub 12:55 credentials:

Many of them have won a 5km medal.

But then I'm sure you probably have better lists.

MarathonMind wrote:

The question is how many miles a week was he running 3 years ago vs. now.

Not sure about 3 years ago, I'd guess 85 though. 2 years ago I believe Salazar said he was at 90 and they planned to add about 5 per week every year.

Thing about Rupp though (and that whole program) is there is a lot more work being done than miles from running.

As has been mentioned before, Rupp has been on the grind essentially year after year for years. For some people that could spell burnout which is often part mental and part physical from the body not being able to hold up.

Neither of those appear to be affecting Rupp, so he moves on. What you hope is that in 2011 and 2012 he tries backing it down a bit more before some of the key races to really squeeze out 100%, something which is impossible to do when you workout after races and don't taper like he has done for almost all of the past.

Keep in mind Rupp made 3 international teams including the olympics while in college. When his time, focus and energy are all directed at running internationally and not school or the ncaa there is a good chance you will see bigger results.

For example we've already seen him drop from 27:33 to 27:10 in a race where he had to carry the load in the worst possible place. If that had been a european race with runners going 27:00 or better, he'd likely have been faster. Heck if he had the luxury of racing the way any of the 3 guys behind who passed him at Cardinal he would have had a faster mark. And before any Rupp haters get defensive of the other runners, no this is not a criticism of racing tactics, just pointing that Rupp could have run a faster time in a different race/strategy.

My bet is we're going to see his 3000 go from 7:44 (best mark in college) to 7:32-7:35 this week and his 5000 go from 13:18i (again best college mark) to 12:54-13:00 the following week.

That would look like:

27:33 as of 2009 to 27:10 (with room)

13:18 as of 2009 to say 12:57 (+/-)

7:44 as of 2009 to say 7:34 (+/-)

Those are some pretty substantial drops and hardly something that would be substance for a discussion in plateauing. Granted someone will say he hasn't hit those kind of times yet so is not capable, and they are welcome to revisit in a couple weeks.

(Who knows when he'll run in another good or even great 10,000, it may not happen for years if they don't set them up in Europe. We may actually have to wait until London or another cardinal invite.)

He hasn't gone 2 races in a row this season without setting a PR. I think the plateau discussion is a little premature.

not max'ed wrote:

He hasn't gone 2 races in a row this season without setting a PR. I think the plateau discussion is a little premature.

Haha, that's a great little point. If he hadn't gone down last week it likely would have been a 3 PR streak, with the possibility of a 4th coming on his last 5000 of the season.

Screwball Legs Hirsch wrote:

He will never run 26:40 - never - I hope he does but really doubt he will do it

Throwback

We now know that Rupp was on prednisone and testosterone in high school. The times listed are not his maximum performances, or he would not have been needing to be doping all that time.

Tbfri wrote:

Screwball Legs Hirsch wrote:

He will never run 26:40 - never - I hope he does but really doubt he will do it

Throwback

Screwball was right. He has not and never will run 26:40.