Racehorse wrote:
Pompous Prick wrote:Let's assume the "consensus" is correct - humans are the driving force behind climate change. Let's also assume that we can completely stop emitting CO2. Will the climate stop changing? Will it get warmer or colder? How much of the planet will be covered by ice? Will sea level rise or fall? Will the glaciers that are receding start growing while the glaciers that are growing start receding? Will the Northwest Passage be frozen shut, or will it be open like it was when Roald Amundsen sailed through in 1905? What's the correct temperature of the earth anyway?
Great questions! Think you will get any intelligent answers?
These are good questions and I will try and answer some of them. I think it's important to note, however that even this skeptic is assuming that the scientific consensus is correct here.
Will the climate stop changing?
There is a lag time before increases in CO2 in the atmosphere are seen in increasing temperature. This is due to the fact that a lot of thermal energy is being stored in the oceans and sinking to the bottom where it will not resurface for thousands of years. There is also a residency time that CO2 stays in the atmosphere which means that even if we stop contributing fossil fuels, it will take hundreds if not thousands of years for temperatures to go back to what they would have been without anthropogenic forcing.
Will it get warmer or colder?
Because of the above, even if we go cold-turkey on CO2 emissions, the Earth will continue to warm for probably several hundred years at which point it will begin to cool. In a couple of thousand years, we can probably expect to leave our nice cozy inter-glacial period and go back into another ice age, assuming humans don't interfere with climate to prevent that. I'm sure we will have the means by then.
Will sea level rise or fall?
Rise. Greenland has melted during past interglacial periods which had similar temperatures to what we are seeing today. The Greenland ice sheet has the potential to raise sea level by around 7m. The West Antarctic ice sheet is also susceptible to melting if air and ocean temperatures rise much more and could add several more meters. Most of the ice in the Antarctic is tied up in the East Antarctic sheet and it is unlikely that anthropogenic warming will be sufficient to melt it, but if it were to melt, the results would be catastrophic.
Will the glaciers that are receding start growing while the glaciers that are growing start receding?
Most glaciers will obviously be receding. However, in very cold climates, where precipitation is low, a warmer climate could mean greater precipitation at high elevations and latitudes so some glaciers will likely experience growth.
Will the Northwest Passage be frozen shut, or will it be open like it was when Roald Amundsen sailed through in 1905?
The Northwest Passage is expected to be permanently open during Summer months this century. Companies are already looking into the viability of using it for shipping routes. There was a good program on "Doc Zone" about it the other day.
What's the correct temperature of the earth anyway?
Good question. Scientists seem to be in agreement that we want to keep temperatures below the threshold that would result in the Greenland ice sheet melting away. This would result in flooding of many coastal areas, the result of which would be more expensive and disruptive than any policies put in place to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Most scientists believe that this threshold lies somewhere around 450-500 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. We are currently at 380-something and will reach the threshold this century if significant efforts to curb emissions are not put in place. Global warming is not going to be an environmental cataclysm of unparalleled dimensions, but a 7m+ rise in sea level and the localized effects on agriculture will be more inconvenient and expensive in the long run than doing something now to try and curb it.
There is no debate among CLIMATOLOGISTS that increasing CO2 emissions leads to an increase in climate. The arguments against this are political spin and if you don't believe this, read
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2985106and educate yourself. This topic as been argued before many times.
To the person who quoted Michael Chricton and his book "State of Fear", read
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=74as it discusses and refutes the points he tries to make in the book. Perhaps you should consider looking at some peer reviewed scientific articles to make your point, not a fictional book.