It's a results business and Kerr hasn't really put a foot wrong since
He hasn't put a lot of feet anywhere, though. OK, he is looking good, a legitimate threat, but there is so much hyperbole surrounding his improvements, extrapolated from a limited sample. If he would have come to even one DL after pre and followed Jakob to the line, I would have said differently.
OK, I won't say 3000m indoor is nothing, but both being indoor and a different distance, it seems a bit beside the point.
That's an uncharitable reading. Being out of shape or miscalculating tactics are not excuses, but parts of the sport. Having an accident could be an excuse, but more often than not it's the result of taking risks. None of these would be 'valid excuses', unless it's an accident out of his control. Getting suddenly ill or injured is a valid excuse, imo.
I don't begrudge Wightman or Kerr their titles, it just seems disproportionate to assign 'top dog' or favorite status to Kerr, saying he is intrinsically better, when he has never beaten a fit Jakob (and has hardly won any big races at all), and the difference in capacity is so large. You can say Kerr won fairly, but you can't say he's a better runner or racer. Do you see the difference?
Well on your last point, I do believe we can say Kerr is the better racer in particular because he's beaten him twice now over the last year even though Jakob is the faster runner. And if Kerr beats him in this final, no excuse is going to take away his newly established supremacy in the 1500. There is a lot on the line for both men.
My criticism of Jakob is that he never credits his opponents. If I were mildly sick it's not something I would highlight to a reporter when I get beaten in a championship race.
He's never been particularly sympathetic, but I don't think hiding an illness wouldn't be very realistic. There were a lot of questions about why he underperformed, and there were also speculation about the upcoming 5000m. Giving a straightforward answer about that to the press was kind of inevitable.
Beating a mildly ill opponent is not dishonorable, and Jacob actually wasn't too bitter about that loss (he was much more upset about Wightman). Being 'under the weather', happens, and it wouldn't be a big deal, if people weren't using the result to draw hard conclusions about the max potential of those two rivals. I'm pretty sure a fit Jakob beats a fit Kerr 9 times out of 10, but you never know when the 10th time is.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
It's a results business and Kerr hasn't really put a foot wrong since
He hasn't put a lot of feet anywhere, though. OK, he is looking good, a legitimate threat, but there is so much hyperbole surrounding his improvements, extrapolated from a limited sample. If he would have come to even one DL after pre and followed Jakob to the line, I would have said differently.
OK, I won't say 3000m indoor is nothing, but both being indoor and a different distance, it seems a bit beside the point.
Why is your expectation that Kerr needs to be out there time trialing against Jakob when the guy has established a system of training and racing that optimizes his fitness for peaking in the most important races of all? If he beats him here again I don't think we can question his methods and say Jakob is superior in the 1500. Not even a WR by Jakob can wipe a back to back loss away to the same person.
Why is your expectation that Kerr needs to be out there time trialing against Jakob when the guy has established a system of training and racing that optimizes his fitness for peaking in the most important races of all?
I have no such expectation. Let him prepare however he prefers. I am just saying that in order to draw conclusions, you need data. And Kerr hasn't provided a lot of it.
That's why I say the claims about Kerr's "sub-3:27 potential" is wild extrapolation from limited data.
Why is your expectation that Kerr needs to be out there time trialing against Jakob when the guy has established a system of training and racing that optimizes his fitness for peaking in the most important races of all?
I have no such expectation. Let him prepare however he prefers. I am just saying that in order to draw conclusions, you need data. And Kerr hasn't provided a lot of it.
That's why I say the claims about Kerr's "sub-3:27 potential" is wild extrapolation from limited data.
That's fair - we don't get to assess his fitness progress each week. We haven't heard of any injuries so I just cannot imagine he has not improved since Pre. Also, to Jakob's credit it's obviously much better for fans of the sport when people race more often. But I think Kerr has established a mental edge by being ultra selective with his racing. Him dodging Jakob after the WC (which he certainly did) has perhaps turned out to be one of the smartest things he's done. He clearly has been riding his WC gold to great heights and confidence, and now I think he's really lost any fear of Jakob.
He hasn't put a lot of feet anywhere, though. OK, he is looking good, a legitimate threat, but there is so much hyperbole surrounding his improvements, extrapolated from a limited sample. If he would have come to even one DL after pre and followed Jakob to the line, I would have said differently.
OK, I won't say 3000m indoor is nothing, but both being indoor and a different distance, it seems a bit beside the point.
Why is your expectation that Kerr needs to be out there time trialing against Jakob when the guy has established a system of training and racing that optimizes his fitness for peaking in the most important races of all? If he beats him here again I don't think we can question his methods and say Jakob is superior in the 1500. Not even a WR by Jakob can wipe a back to back loss away to the same person.
Trollminator, you're the undisputed champion booster of Kerr today, you can take your victory lap now.
You're a skilled reductionist laying out an ostensibly logical take -- though your reasoning is full of leaps and gaps and clearly animated, at root, by your pro-Kerr sympathies.
How else explain your suddenly claiming that Kerr is mentally tougher than Jakob (whatever that means), which, based on your earlier purportedly just-the-facts analysis, should be entirely irrelevant to the matter at hand?
Agreed there is a ton on the line for both of these guys. And I dont see a compelling argument that either is more than a very slight favorite over the other.
The whole "Kerr is stagnant at 3:29" thing seems a bit silly. IIt's not like he's been stuck there for 8 years, he first ran 3:29 in 2021 and is obviously a much better runner now by virtue of his WC gold, Pre Classic win, and indoor 2mi WR. He also ran 3:45.34 for the win in May, which converts to a 3:28.79 according to WA tables. Given his success at peaking for world champs/olympics in the past, it's pretty reasonable to expect he's capable of a second+ faster if he's following Jakob. Is he capable of 3:26 high/3:27 low? Much bigger question mark, but it would also take an exceptional performance for Jakob to lead his way to that time. That's what makes this so spicy and hard to predict. How fast can Jakob truly go when soloing from the front, and how well can Kerr hang on to Jakob's best?
Or maybe Jakob doesn't push from the gun and puts more faith in his kick in a 3:28+ race. He'll have to be significantly better than he was the last two WCs for that to work, but he very well might be.
My criticism of Jakob is that he never credits his opponents. If I were mildly sick it's not something I would highlight to a reporter when I get beaten in a championship race.
He's never been particularly sympathetic, but I don't think hiding an illness wouldn't be very realistic. There were a lot of questions about why he underperformed, and there were also speculation about the upcoming 5000m. Giving a straightforward answer about that to the press was kind of inevitable.
Beating a mildly ill opponent is not dishonorable, and Jacob actually wasn't too bitter about that loss (he was much more upset about Wightman). Being 'under the weather', happens, and it wouldn't be a big deal, if people weren't using the result to draw hard conclusions about the max potential of those two rivals. I'm pretty sure a fit Jakob beats a fit Kerr 9 times out of 10, but you never know when the 10th time is.
I think he was embarrassed and threw that little white lie out there to cover himself. I have a much more plausible explanation - he ran several rounds after a season of plenty of racing (not much rest) and got outgunned by a guy with a better kick.
You better take one more look at yesterdays semi. Then you will see how Kerr twitch when Jakob passes him. He was obviously surprised at the moment.
Oh right yes I did catch that. I think that was more of what is this guy doing its a semi. Kerr knows Jakob is supremely fit, but that doesn't scare him.
Agreed there is a ton on the line for both of these guys. And I dont see a compelling argument that either is more than a very slight favorite over the other.
The whole "Kerr is stagnant at 3:29" thing seems a bit silly. IIt's not like he's been stuck there for 8 years, he first ran 3:29 in 2021 and is obviously a much better runner now by virtue of his WC gold, Pre Classic win, and indoor 2mi WR. He also ran 3:45.34 for the win in May, which converts to a 3:28.79 according to WA tables. Given his success at peaking for world champs/olympics in the past, it's pretty reasonable to expect he's capable of a second+ faster if he's following Jakob. Is he capable of 3:26 high/3:27 low? Much bigger question mark, but it would also take an exceptional performance for Jakob to lead his way to that time. That's what makes this so spicy and hard to predict. How fast can Jakob truly go when soloing from the front, and how well can Kerr hang on to Jakob's best?
Or maybe Jakob doesn't push from the gun and puts more faith in his kick in a 3:28+ race. He'll have to be significantly better than he was the last two WCs for that to work, but he very well might be.
Either way, it's gonna be an amazing race.
I think Jakob is going to run a very "hard" 3:28 and get sniped by Kerr again. I just don't see him getting on 3:27/8 pace from the gun so he's going to put a lot of energy into the last 1100-1200 to get on pace and he won't have the strenght to hold Kerr off in the end.
I think he was embarrassed and threw that little white lie out there to cover himself. I have a much more plausible explanation - he ran several rounds after a season of plenty of racing (not much rest) and got outgunned by a guy with a better kick.
But the race itself was really far below his normal level. Something was definitely off. I think lying about this is so serious, I wouldn't entertain such a suspicion. At that point I think civilized discourse starts to break down, and in the end everyone is just a liar and a cheater.
JI hasn't had problems tearing into himself when he underperforms, he's a harsh critic of himself, and he wouldn't make up such a lie, imo.
Agreed there is a ton on the line for both of these guys. And I dont see a compelling argument that either is more than a very slight favorite over the other.
The whole "Kerr is stagnant at 3:29" thing seems a bit silly. IIt's not like he's been stuck there for 8 years, he first ran 3:29 in 2021 and is obviously a much better runner now by virtue of his WC gold, Pre Classic win, and indoor 2mi WR. He also ran 3:45.34 for the win in May, which converts to a 3:28.79 according to WA tables. Given his success at peaking for world champs/olympics in the past, it's pretty reasonable to expect he's capable of a second+ faster if he's following Jakob. Is he capable of 3:26 high/3:27 low? Much bigger question mark, but it would also take an exceptional performance for Jakob to lead his way to that time. That's what makes this so spicy and hard to predict. How fast can Jakob truly go when soloing from the front, and how well can Kerr hang on to Jakob's best?
Or maybe Jakob doesn't push from the gun and puts more faith in his kick in a 3:28+ race. He'll have to be significantly better than he was the last two WCs for that to work, but he very well might be.
Either way, it's gonna be an amazing race.
I think Jakob is going to run a very "hard" 3:28 and get sniped by Kerr again. I just don't see him getting on 3:27/8 pace from the gun so he's going to put a lot of energy into the last 1100-1200 to get on pace and he won't have the strenght to hold Kerr off in the end.
If Kerr is such a stud, then he should take the lead early in instead of leeching off Jakob and "sniping" him at the end
Why is your expectation that Kerr needs to be out there time trialing against Jakob when the guy has established a system of training and racing that optimizes his fitness for peaking in the most important races of all? If he beats him here again I don't think we can question his methods and say Jakob is superior in the 1500. Not even a WR by Jakob can wipe a back to back loss away to the same person.
Trollminator, you're the undisputed champion booster of Kerr today, you can take your victory lap now.
You're a skilled reductionist laying out an ostensibly logical take -- though your reasoning is full of leaps and gaps and clearly animated, at root, by your pro-Kerr sympathies.
How else explain your suddenly claiming that Kerr is mentally tougher than Jakob (whatever that means), which, based on your earlier purportedly just-the-facts analysis, should be entirely irrelevant to the matter at hand?
It's not a sudden claim. I've claimed that since Budapest. Although he was just the next guy, he got Jakob talking about him plenty since. He got in his head and he's gotten more out of the back and forths than Jakob has. If Jakob was superior, he wouldn't have reduced himself to playing into cat fights, but he did and Kerr has capitalized on it. Are you claiming Kerr is not in Jakob's head?