“What’s the significance of July 7, given that the Olympic qualifying period ends on June 30? World Athletics has built a few steps into the rankings process. On July 2, it will confirm the list of athletes whose ranking gets them an Olympic qualifier. Those athletes have until July 4 to decline the Olympic spot. Only after that process will World Athletics publish the final rankings on July 7”
Valby: 1221 from April + 1155 performance score from tonight + 50 placing score from tonight = 2426 / 2 = 1213p
Schweizer: 1218 from the Ten + 1155 performance score from tonight + 45 placing score from tonight = 2418 / 2 = 1209p
After taking out Monson, Izzo, Henes O'Keeffe, and Rogers, Klara Lukan from Slovenia will be #26, Valby will be #27, and Schweizer will be #28. Rahel Daniel from Eritrea is in on cross country ranking and hasn't raced in over a year so almost certain to drop, opening the final spot for Schweizer.
I heard rumors here Rahel Daniel is DSD. This photo doesn't exactly cast aside doubts for me:
Asmara, 23 January 2022- Eritrean Olympian Athlete Rahel Daniel won Gold Medal at the Road Race that was held in Belgium on 22 January.The 21 years old Athlete Rahel finished the 8 km race in 28 minutes, and 41 seconds.Speaki...
The top Japanese woman Ririka Hironaka is injured and didn't run either the 10000m national championships in May or the 5000 m champs this weekend. Fair chance she will scratch.
That's a very good comment in the other thread. The only thing I would question is his belief that Veerle Bakker of the Netherlands won't run the 10,000 in Paris. I follow Dutch athletics closely. I can almost guarantee that Bakker will run, if eligible and the Dutch federation agrees to take her.
He bases his estimate on the fact that Bakker did not run the 10,000 last year in Budapest. There was a reason for that. Her favorite season is cross country and her favorite track event is the steeplechase. She wins the Dutch steeplechase championship almost every year, including less than 24 hours ago. Bakker skipped the Budapest 10,000 last year only because she preferred to run the steeplechase at World University Games in China. That meet ended only days before Budapest.
Make no mistake, Bakker is not a contender at 10,000 on the track. She ran it for the first time in mid May of this year. Then again at European Championships a few weeks later. Neither result was particularly good. She has Paris opportunity only due to the quirk of cross country and assumed parallel competency.
Bakker has never competed in the Olympics and is not good enough to qualify in the steeplechase. She is good friends with Amina Maatoug. I can't see any chance she would skip an Olympic opportunity. Her most recent Instagram post hints as much.
She fared poorly at European 10,000 but wrote on Instagram: "I wasn’t super prepared for this distance, but glad I got a chance to race in such a field with an amazing crowd and this pretty stadium😍
The experience for sure helps to get more experienced and we’ll take the learnings for any race coming🧡
For Dutch athletes, there are 2 ways to Paris: 1) standard 2) rankings and national standard. Unfortunately, Bakker hasn't met the national standard (31min I believe) to make use of here XC-ranking.
Also, as is mentioned in the race recap. Sweden's Lahti (als xc-ranking) has been injured and I haven't seen any signs of her competing of yet. JG could ask her agent Dave Klink (Bizzsports) for an update.
Chill guys, Valby & Schweizer will get in easily. Definitely scratching Monson Warner-Judd Harrison Very highly likely to scratch McColgan - Looks very unlikely to be fit enough (DNF'd at the recent Euros) Hironaka - Injured since January. Might still be selected and given a chance to show her fitness at the Hokuren Distance Challenge (5 meetings in 15 days starting this Saturday). However, she wasn't in the 5000 at this weekend's Japanese Championships and she's not entered for the first Hokuren DC meeting Daniel - Hasn't raced for 16 months Zarbo - XC qualifier - Can't see her federation selecting her because she won't be competitive Bakker - Ditto Lahti - Injured? That's more than enough for Valby & Schweizer to get in.
This looks correct. Similar to what Chavez said on the Citius post race podcast. If one of Schweizer or Valby chooses to focus on the 5000m instead, it doesn't look like Jess McClain has enough points to get in, but 5th Place finisher Amanda Vestri would be very close. All USATF selections are done in order of finish at the trials, no exceptions. For Izzo to have been selected for the team, all but two of the women who finished ahead of her at the trials had to be outside the world rankings quota, this is not the case.
If Valby or Schweizer and ESP decide to drop the 5000m, then it would fall to 5th place finisher Whittni Morgan, who is in the rankings quota and would get a spot. The top 7 women finishers have the rankings in the 5000m.
Assuming all of the above go through team processing. The math required to figure out people's rankings scores are not complicated. The bigger issue is figuring out who is racing.
[...]Assuming all of the above go through team processing. The math required to figure out people's rankings scores are not complicated. The bigger issue is figuring out who is racing.
Great recap. I believe the annoyance with the World Rankings is not the math, it's that (1) they are not a dynamic list, we have to wait a week for updates, yet it's just a database, (2) the DL, GL, A, B, etc., feels arbitrary and (for me) and does not always sus out the best athletes but the best connected athletes, (3) the bonus points for place are not uniform throughout events for some/no reason, and then (4) to your point, the scratches.
Tighter timelines, uniform bonus points, real-time databases and less difference between a B and DL meet would help, IMO.