Women's Olympic Trials 10000m - who are your picks?

If you don't understand what surging does I'm not going to explain it. African runners have been doing it for decades. To be fair her training, if true, is insufficient and has resulted in her being unable to adapt to race conditions. She's basically running in 2nd gear the whole way while the others are just waiting to kick it into 3rd gear. But once they hit the last 1000 meters in that race, she was doomed no matter what and we all saw it.

Just compare Valby to Young. Young actually looks worn out. And Leachman is also struggling. There is one glaring exception.

Your last point is correct, about running in a single gear to maximize her finishing time. She does not have the fitness to be throwing in surges in a 14:51 finish. Athletes like Kelati or Monson would be able to throw in surges in a 14:45 race, because at peak fitness, they are much faster than 14:45.

It is pointless to argue that you know her training better than her and her coaches. She has done very well in the collegiate ranks, which are getting faster each year, but not at the level of seasoned professionals.

These comparisons are sophomoric. Valby is highly aerobic conditioned; she is currently limited by the capacity of her musculoskeletal system to fully utilize her aerobic capacity. That spectrum of variance can be found broadly across all levels of competition.

There is a high probability it will go Kelati, Schweizer, Valby. Valby's goal is to make the team, not to win. She's proved she has an outstanding sense of pace, and her best tactic is to go out and time trial to another PR and burn off all the competition other than Kelati and Schweizer. If Schweizer is even a little bit off, Valby might be able to get by her as well, since they were only 6 seconds apart in the 5k.

Sure.

False equivalency.
Nico had more competition in the NCAA and didn’t even win 5000m.

Valby didn’t have anyone near her so it was likely much easier for her.

Yeah but 5 of those seconds were over 400 meters

She suffered a collapsed lung last fall during a run and ended up needing surgery for it.

Actually not “low 14:50s,” in fairness.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Schweizer actually wins the 10k, upsetting Kelati. Kelati 2nd, Valby 3rd.

Same.

The 16 yr old in your “plateau” example has only run slower ever since. Let’s hope both runners continue to improve with time.

On the 5K womens thread I had ESP, Cranny and Schweizer. In this race I say Schweizer, Kelati, Valby. I don't think it's going to be a fast pace and I can't see either Kelati or Valby outkicking Schweizer.

Valby isn’t the only one who needs it to be a reasonably fast race for either the standard or ranking. Schweizer, Hennes, etc are in the same boat.

I think Valby and Schweizer should work together to control the pace. 73s and 74s at least. Most of the field will be dropped eventually.

Henes ran 31:07 (in nice conditions) 3 months ago so she might be close to where Valby is

Henes is more of an unknown because we don't know if she has gotten back to the fitness level she was at before he collapsed lung. If she has, then she definitely in the mix for the third spot.

I'm gonna go with Kelati, Schwezer, and Valby learns from the 5K to leave enough in the tank to hold on for 3rd.