First of all, look at the credentials & experience of the three (3) anti-doping experts on the panel:
Prof Guiseppe d'Onofrio, expert hematologist & ABP analyst, Dr Laura Lewis, expert in altitude exposure & de-training on hematological parameters (I believe that was her PhD thesis) & Dr Jakob Morkeberg, sport scientist & blood expert. They have all done numerous reviews & expert opinions on ABP hematological-anomalies cases.
As I mentioned before, his initial blood draw, Sample #1, (July, 2018), was 15.8 Hgb (47.4 Hct), 0.86 RET% & a corresponding Off-score of 102.4 - all normal for an athlete living & training at that particular altitude. Based on these baseline numbers his upper & lower threshold limits were automatically set on his ABP.
Sample #2, (Sept, 2018), taken a few days before a competition was flagged by the system for high Hgb & Off-score, (17.8 Hgb/53.4 Hct & 125.01 Off-score). 125 Off-score = 99% specificity (less than 1 out of 100 undoped).
The experts noted sample #2 showed high Hgb with decreased RET% (IRF) highly suggestive of discontinued use of an ESA (this is called the Off-phase of EPO doping prior to a competition).
The experts further noted that a reduction in training volume could not explain the very high Hgb when compared to sample #1.
There were several other flagged abnormalities on his ABO that are not compatible with normal physiology, altitude or intense excercise.
Additionally, the Haile et al study showed average baseline blood values for Kenyan distance runners living & training at 2150m altitude (~15 Hgb/~45 Hct/~1.0 RET%/~100 Off-score):
IMO, the key in these ABP hematological-anomalies cases is to put the emphasis on the Off-score. This has been formulated in the module to factor in Hgb & RET%. If an athlete's ABP is flagged, the Off-score will give you a pretty good idea of how significant the abnormalities are. As in the case, the 125 Off-score has a 99% specificity, i.e., less than 1 out of 100 undoped.
Curious, are you suggesting than he would be that less than one undoped?