Awesome run from Centro but he’s definitely done in terms of going to the Olympics. He would have to beat all of these guys for the 3rd spot: Kessler, Teare, Waskom, Green, Houser, and Sahlman. That’s not even counting Holt, Wynne, Prakel, etc.
None of those guys has Centro’s Olympic qualifying experience or veteran racing savvy. They have to contend with him just as much as he has to contend with them.
1500 trials are usually won around 3:35 and are all tactical and often slow until the last lap. So let’s stop with the narrative about the need to run 3:30 because that won’t be needed. People run stupid in the finals even when they have times much faster than everyone else. Why? Because of the pressure and stakes involved. No one wants to set pace and then gag away a spot by getting passed in the end. It’s a different level race and experience handling the pressure matters, that’s rudimentary. He and 6 others will be in the mix going into the last lap, mostly because others will avoid running their own race. Given his experience in these kinds of races (2016 1500 finals anyone?) and demonstrated tactical superiority over the others, as well as very underrated finishing speed, he stands an excellent chance of making the team. These are facts not conjecture.
1500 trials are usually won around 3:35 and are all tactical and often slow until the last lap. So let’s stop with the narrative about the need to run 3:30 because that won’t be needed. People run stupid in the finals even when they have times much faster than everyone else. Why? Because of the pressure and stakes involved. No one wants to set pace and then gag away a spot by getting passed in the end. It’s a different level race and experience handling the pressure matters, that’s rudimentary. He and 6 others will be in the mix going into the last lap, mostly because others will avoid running their own race. Given his experience in these kinds of races (2016 1500 finals anyone?) and demonstrated tactical superiority over the others, as well as very underrated finishing speed, he stands an excellent chance of making the team. These are facts not conjecture.
True, except you're assuming Centro still has the same last lap acceleration he had 8 years ago. Spoiler alert: he does not.
Of course you would know that since you watch him train each day. If anyone has good finishing speed and wants others to think they don’t, they certainly aren’t going to show their hand in a bunch of meaningless leadups. To assume what you are seeing now is what the product will be on trials day shows you aren’t very knowledgeable about the sport.
Impressive to run 3:34 for the win. Nico and Colin were so close. Were they trying to beat each other or just trying to finish together? Centro is way ahead of his usual schedule. Abdi's also rounding into shape, while Luis looks to be behind schedule.
Luis isn't a true 1500 meter runner.
While true, he has usually shown significantly better fitness than this over 1500/mile. He ran 3:53 in a relaxed win last indoor, and 3:38 in May in 2022. I love the guy and root for him at every opportunity but there's no denying he's been a bit underwhelming this year and I'm starting to get a little worried. Didn't run well at the Ten, didn't run great at Bryan Clay, didn't run well at Oxy now.
On the bright side, it's not toooo different from his results in 2022 and 2023: he's run 3:39 and 27:26 so far, compared to 3:38/13:36 in 2022 and 27:42 in 2023 (although he also had run 3:53 and 7:33 atp), so there is certainly hope. Just a bit worrisome to see him so far behind Nico and Abdi, who are on the same training program, and inarguably are less favored to medal on the world stage compared to a 12:52 man who placed 4th twice.
Of course you would know that since you watch him train each day. If anyone has good finishing speed and wants others to think they don’t, they certainly aren’t going to show their hand in a bunch of meaningless leadups. To assume what you are seeing now is what the product will be on trials day shows you aren’t very knowledgeable about the sport.
You're right. All the greats let lesser runners beat them in early season races. Strategery.
Or, they actually don’t worry about peaking in races that mean nothing, and they actually focus more on a specific training plan to run a specific race at the specific right time. Because that is what actually matters. See Viren, Shorter, Coe, Spivey, Kipchoge, Lopes, Snell, the list goes on and on. But you’ve probably never heard of most of them.
And looked to me like Centro was not all out, not even close. And should not be. Small time meet. Knew he had more. Risk of injury too great, but got to there he needed to be at the end if workouts to finish hard are still to come. Months to the Olympics, looked smooth and solid to me. And I had not expected that, not a super fan. Just respect and watching.
Running a couple of seconds faster would have been risking injury? Would he have pulled a hamstring or gotten spiked? “Not even close” sounds like if he had wanted to, he could have run 3:32.
Awesome run from Centro but he’s definitely done in terms of going to the Olympics. He would have to beat all of these guys for the 3rd spot: Kessler, Teare, Waskom, Green, Houser, and Sahlman. That’s not even counting Holt, Wynne, Prakel, etc.
Tough to get past Nguse, Hocker, and Kessler. But odds are someone will
1500 trials are usually won around 3:35 and are all tactical and often slow until the last lap. So let’s stop with the narrative about the need to run 3:30 because that won’t be needed. People run stupid in the finals even when they have times much faster than everyone else. Why? Because of the pressure and stakes involved. No one wants to set pace and then gag away a spot by getting passed in the end. It’s a different level race and experience handling the pressure matters, that’s rudimentary. He and 6 others will be in the mix going into the last lap, mostly because others will avoid running their own race. Given his experience in these kinds of races (2016 1500 finals anyone?) and demonstrated tactical superiority over the others, as well as very underrated finishing speed, he stands an excellent chance of making the team. These are facts not conjecture.
If the winning time is going to be about 3:35, the 3:30 guy has a big advantage, and being in his mid-30, Centro does not have the best top-end speed in the field. If anything, he needs for the OT race to be set at a fast pace.
"He's a 3:48 miler" altitude morans go home devastated
It's a 3:51 1500m to mile conversion, that's pretty good for a longer distance guy. Maybe with pacers and a genuine attempt at the NCAA record he could get closer to that 3:48
True, if it was only about everyone starting from the same spot on the last lap and then being able to run all out unimpeded. But there’s so many other variables, positioning going into the last lap, ability to burst at the key moments (which experience tells you to do right, not just speed) ability to stay out of tactical trouble (boxed in, etc). Centrowitz will have plenty of the kind of finishing speed needed for what will likely be a chaotic final 300 meters where there will be several opportunities to use speed at the right moment. We are talking about his chances for making the team, he doesn’t have to win. Those chances will be good for sure. If someone makes the move early in the race, that’s a different set of circumstances. But I like his chances in that scenario too, because most likely not everyone will counter that move. History says they don’t in the trials.
Nobody expected Centro to win a gold medal in 2016 nobody expects Centro to make the Olympic team in 2024 I would bet on Centro to make the team
For what it is worth, I remember thinking in 2016 that he had a 60% chance of medaling in that year’s Olympics, and a 20% chance of gold. This year, I would give him about a 30% chance of making the team and that’s it. That’s a lot better odds than I would have given before this meet and reflects his past history of shaping up fast. But it’s just a stretch, statistically, that's he going to beat all of Kessler, Teare, Sahlman, and the UW guys. With all due respect to the Olympic champ Centro, of course, since he’s a total boss.