Joe Klecker in Trouble?

I thought Rowe would have a chance as he's made a huge step up since last year. Taking his 5k down from 13:20 to 13:04 in a year is impressive. Add in his 61:08 HM, I thought 10k might be a sweet spot for him. I think he'll have another crack at it at Highgate as it's his best path to an olympic place given the competition in the 5k

Some things to think about:

1) Klecker ran 12:54, 12:55, 12:56 just last year. Just 8 months ago. One other American has done that ... ever.

2) Klecker placed 4th at US nationals just last year in the 5k. Just 8 months ago. The only person missing was Fisher.

3) some amazing 5k marks have been put up this winter. 13:03 for Blanks and 12:57 for Young, etc.. But these marks are one-offs for both, and they reached this level just this year. Klecker has about fifteen sub-7:35/13:10/27:10 marks spread over 3 years.

4) Nur has PRs of 7:40i/13:03i/27:17, the last two set in the last 2 months. Klecker has had some sub-par races this year so far, by his own admission. They were 7:47i/13:06i/27:07. It doesn't look to me like he HAS TO move up to the marathon, unless you think Nur (only one year younger) also needs to.

So, my point IS NOT that he is a lock for either distance, to make the team. My point is that there are about 15 people at each distance that are likely to make it to the final and have a reasonable shot at top-3. Think that's too many?

Fisher, Nur, Kincaid, McGorty, Klecker, Young, Hacker, Beadlescomb, Teare, Blanks, Dylan Jacobs, Bosley, Chelimo ... etc.

The shifting sands of distance running being what they are, mean that if any of these people show up with their best form ever, they likely make the team ... or will be close behind a superior athlete. Nur was a good example of this last year. As Fisher showed last year, if the favorites are just slightly sub-par ... they will miss out.

Only one person on this list has brought their best form to US nationals each year and ALSO made a team in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Joe Klecker.

I don't think he needs to move up to the marathon just yet. If he decides to, it won't be because he has no shot on the track.

Klecker has just as good odds of making the team as Nur, Blanks, Young, Dylan Jacobs, et al until they prove they can reach the starting line healthy, not burnt out, and fresh enough for their best performance. So far most Americans are batting .500 in US Champs the last 4 years.

The most important thing, and one I don't think anyone mentioned, is Klecker didn't run for the 2 weeks before The Ten. Some injury problem, I forget what exactly.

Stress reaction in his pelvis.

With your thorough examination of his resume and the current competition I'm surprised you'd be willing to say this without any evidence that he didn't run for two weeks. He announced on Strava he was going dark on social media to focus on the race. Those are two very different things.

There's a Kenyan-born Belgian athlete, Isaac Kimeli, who ran 27:07. There's no competition in Belgium so if he runs sub 27 he's on the team, taking yet another spot.

Then add one or 2 Japanese athletes and maybe one more Ugandan, or a random east African from a different country.

What's surprising is that most of you dolts have been spouting off about Joe without doing even the simplist amount of research. This has been available for 4 days now. He didn't run for 2-3 weeks because of a stress scare in his pelvis. Seems to be clearing up, let's hope for the best so the US sends it's best team to Paris!

DNF before 30k. Pelvis stress? Okay, then.

I think Klecker has drastically overachieved for his talent level thus far. He has always been awesome, but one step below the Grant Fisher types. No NCAA titles but always in the mix. No HS national titles but always in the mix. I didn't really expect him to be a perennial 5K/10K team qualifier. So I wouldn't say he is in trouble, the USA is just really good right now and outside of Grant Fisher I am not sure there are any people that are close to sure things for those teams on a year-in, year-out basis.

So f*cking sad True kept chasing after making the 5k, 10k teams when he could’ve been a great marathoner at his peak. Don’t wanna say he easily would’ve made the Olympic team for the marathon during that 2012-2016 stretch but c’mon man who was even on those teams.

kind of like his parents-his mother Janis won the '92 trials and his father Barney had the American 50 mile record--still really solid track performances, but I see him more on the roads long-term...

the Overexplainer makes a lot of good points. Klecker has been consistent and one of our top guys for the past few years and even though his results this year do not appear to have continued his upward trajectory over the past year (yet) he is still great.

Still, I think most of us are frustrated that the marathon is the place where aging track stars go to die. Would love to see Klecker just try out some roads, for all we know his potential there could be miles ahead of his track potential (especially considering who his parents are).

In fact, Mantz is the first young prospect we've had in recent memory that has been willing to try the roads and I would argue with fantastic results. Hopefully that will convince more A-level talent to try the roads while they're still young.

To the point Klecker is now the second man in Road to Paris behind only a Kenyan Benard Kibet. He’ll get in if he finishes top 3 unless night of 10Ks goes wild.

Is this the Mantz who was always referred to as "Grandpa" when it came to collegiate running? Now he's being called a young prospect? Oh, the irony of it all.

He's taking off now too. There's another runner or 2 there not running recently for over a week. Not great timing

I had mentioned before that I thought he should move to steeple or marathon (marathon for sure but it's too late for this Olympics). Not because Klecker isn't good enough to make the 5000 or 10000 teams, but rather because he's super talented and steeple and marathon are less competitive than the 5000 or 10000. With the talent we have at 5000 and 10000, Klecker's (or anyone's) odds of being a perennial team maker are low. Whereas the marathon is weak and a talent like Klecker adapted to the marathon distance would be a heavy favorite to make every team for the rest of his career.

I see these windows in the marathon and steeplechase only lasting for a few more years before the overwhelming mass of talent from 1500 - 10000 starts to realize there is a wide open opportunity that not many others are taking advantage of.

Yep. You can see the casualties on Strava. At least 3 appear to be injured. That’s what you get for pushing hard during indoor.

Who are the 3 suspected to be injured based on Strava?

According to Jonathan Gault logic, Nur’s 5k PR is around 12:50 since his training partner Luis Grijalva has run that

Nur’s been pretty disappointing since last years USAs. Not sure exactly what it is, but he’s raced barely at all, and outside of a decent 5k prelim he’s looked closer to a fringe worlds finalist type (Heymans, Flanagan et al) than someone who can make noise in a final/DL race.