Jakob lost in 2022 because of all the tactical errors mid-race that drained his energy. It’s wrong to say he “let” Wightman pass because at that point in the race he couldn’t prevent it. He had his stride checked during that pass which effectively decided their finishing order. Wightman won because he was a 3:29 guy with more energy and better positioning at the end. It had nothing to do with his superior speed.
In 2023 Jakob was sick and it showed. He couldn’t push the 3rd lap and tried to save something for the end but it wasn’t enough. His final 300 was awful by his standards, slower than his final 300 when he ran 3:27.14 if I’m not mistaken (remember that official splits from Budapest are wrong).
In top shape it looks like he could put the hammer down on the 3rd lap and win convincingly in 3:27-high/3:28-low. I think winding it up from 700-800 out a la El Guerrouj is low-risk and actually gives him his best chance to win, but it’s unlikely he’ll do this per his recent comments.
The mistake is thinking that he has to lead because he is so much slower than the others. His semifinal in Budapest (3:35 comfortably closing in 51-high) should have put that to rest, but most letsrun posters have short memories. Of course, Jakob is just one of the many guys capable of closing a 3:40 race in 50 seconds, so there’s no reason for him to go this route when pushing the pace will neutralize a lot of potential kickers and cut the number of challengers down considerably.