I’m most concerned about Nuguse actually. I do think Jakob is really going to run away from everyone else this year. I think it will be like El Guerrouj in 1999, so it will be very valuable if someone makes Nuguse’s life more difficult like Estevez did to Ngeny in that final. I think Kerr will be in the mix but the pace might be too much and if Nordas is willing to sandbag like he did last year that bodes well for him against more aggressive runners like Kerr, Wightman, Reynold, Kipsang, Katir, Laros, Hoare, Mario and Tim who might go for the win,
Why?
I believe he WAS sick last year and it hampered his performance. If he can run 3:27 from the front, the drafting benefit will be negated for Nuguse/Kerr et al because they'll be fighting each other for positioning, and Jakob may very well be able to gain separation. That is unless the field runs very conservatively behind Jakob, and I just think there are too many egos involved for them all to go single-file.
I sincerely doubt any european betting site would offer (european) odds of 2 or higher on Jakob winning the 1500m final. before worlds, the sites were offering odds around 1,1 if i remember correctly. It seems like an amazing opportunity if you were able to make that bet.
Obviously Jakob’s the man with the best odds of winning the Olympic 1500m and the reigning champ, but would you give him over 50 percent odds vs the field?
He has to contend with:
-Yared Nuguse, who improved from being a 3:53 miler to a 3:43 miler in one year and is very dangerous at his best
-Josh Kerr, The reigning world champ who has always had a propensity for championship racing
-Jake Wightman, Who upset Jakob in 2022 and has amazing top end speed with a 2:13 1k and 1:43 800m
-Narve Nordas, his estranged father’s new protege who improved from 3:36 to 3:29 in a year, got bronze at worlds, and closed a 3:29 1500m with a 52 last lap
-Niels Laros, Seemingly the second coming of Jakob, ran a 4:49 2k, 3:31 1500m, and 1:44 800m at 18
Jakob is the favorite over any of these men individually but does he have a greater than 50% chance at beating all of them after losing his last three global 1500m finals?
If Jakob is sick (I mean really sick, like dizzy all day -Budapest) I’ll give him a 40 / 60 against the field. If in normal shape I estimate 95 / 5…. (He might fall, someone is 3 sec better than estimated , and so on).
Eh I don't think I can give a guy that has lost 3 out of the last 4 championship 1500s a 95/5 in anything. Maybe 60/40 at most.
It's a total brain worm to suggest Jakob can't close. A lot of it is people focussing on his open 800 time, which is mediocre. But as I've said before, it doesn't really matter what a 1500 guy can run for an open 800 when he's fresh. All that matters is what he can run for 800 when he already has 700m if hard running in his legs. I have no doubt at all that Jakob could close in 50 seconds in a 3:45 race. The reason he doesn't do that is because there's at least three other guys, and probably more, that can do the same (Wightman and Kerr both ran 50 for the final lap at the British champs in a 3:40 race in 2021).
Completely agree. I feel like at least once per season, there's a race where everyone goes "See, this is proof that just because you're way faster at a shorter distance, that doesn't mean you'll have a better kick at the end of a longer race", and then after a month or two, people completely forget. Jakob was closing crazy fast like no one else in 3:27-3:28 races all season, because he was the only one with anything left at that pace.
If the Jakob that did the 3:43/7:23 double was on the startline in Budapest, he'd have won. Tbf, if 3:43 Nuguse was on the line in Budapest, he'd have won too. If they both show up this year, these Olympics are gonna go down as one of the greatest ever.
Jakob Ingebrigtsen har ikke blitt dårligere i formen i løpet av det siste døgnet. Torsdag hadde han feber da han løp forsøket på 5000 meter, og det har vært usikkerhet om han ville stille i finalen søndag. Lørdag formiddag er...
We just don't hear about it because the team doctor is Norwegian. So he's obviously going to report to Norwegian media, not English media.
I could mention other obvious signs that he was off from the races themselves but why bother. I trust the team doctor's words and the words of the athlete who is always super direct/honest in his interviews (for better or worse!).
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
Eh I don't think I can give a guy that has lost 3 out of the last 4 championship 1500s a 95/5 in anything. Maybe 60/40 at most.
Well, he was much better in 2023 than in 2022, but was sick in the WC. And the same against Tefera in the indoors (covid). Against Wighman he lost fair and square, but as I said: He’s much better now (when not being sick).
In a championship race with no pacemakers and rounds, I don't think Jacob is the overwhelming favorite. Slight favorite at best. In a Diamond League race with pacemakers, Jakob can just run -- he doesn't have to race. In championship races, particularly if there are multiple attacks -- and there will be -- Jacob is vulnerable. Kerr and Wightman can both sustain their top speed for longer than Jacob. Nordas and Nuguse are also threats.
i would go with Jakob to win if he is to focus on the 1500m only in 2024. If he goes with 5000m too, then this will give his rivals a good chance as 2022 and 2023 proved. The goose and the the rival Norwegian may be the ones that makes the most significant improvement again given their great 2023 seasons. What an event the 1500m will be at Paris.
Eh I don't think I can give a guy that has lost 3 out of the last 4 championship 1500s a 95/5 in anything. Maybe 60/40 at most.
Well, he was much better in 2023 than in 2022, but was sick in the WC. And the same against Tefera in the indoors (covid). Against Wighman he lost fair and square, but as I said: He’s much better now (when not being sick).
Jakob is so incredibly consistent it’s hard to bet against him. He’s what lost 2 races in 3 years? Just so happens both of them were 1500 world finals
Actually he has lost 5 if you don’t count semi finals and rounds. He lost 2021 Diamond League Final (to Tim, right after the Olympics when Gjert suggested he would never lose to Tim again), 2022 Worlds Indoor 1500, 2022 Worlds outdoor 1500, 2023 Worlds 1500, and an 800.
I think it should be clear from how important those races are that it doesn’t “just so happen” that his only losses except in an off distance are world/DL finals. He is gonna win 95% of the time when he doesn’t have to pace and lead and he is gonna lose a lot more than that when he does. Chalking it up to chance ignores how he isn’t good enough to just lead from 1200 out and win 100% - or even 50% - of the time against the current world milers. The comp is good and he isn’t like El G, head and shoulders superior to his contemporaries.
Jakob is so incredibly consistent it’s hard to bet against him. He’s what lost 2 races in 3 years? Just so happens both of them were 1500 world finals
Actually he has lost 5 if you don’t count semi finals and rounds. He lost 2021 Diamond League Final (to Tim, right after the Olympics when Gjert suggested he would never lose to Tim again), 2022 Worlds Indoor 1500, 2022 Worlds outdoor 1500, 2023 Worlds 1500, and an 800.
I think it should be clear from how important those races are that it doesn’t “just so happen” that his only losses except in an off distance are world/DL finals. He is gonna win 95% of the time when he doesn’t have to pace and lead and he is gonna lose a lot more than that when he does. Chalking it up to chance ignores how he isn’t good enough to just lead from 1200 out and win 100% - or even 50% - of the time against the current world milers. The comp is good and he isn’t like El G, head and shoulders superior to his contemporaries.
Wow you’re right that’s a lot more than I recall and big ones. Taking the field now
In a championship race with no pacemakers and rounds, I don't think Jacob is the overwhelming favorite. Slight favorite at best. In a Diamond League race with pacemakers, Jakob can just run -- he doesn't have to race. In championship races, particularly if there are multiple attacks -- and there will be -- Jacob is vulnerable. Kerr and Wightman can both sustain their top speed for longer than Jacob. Nordas and Nuguse are also threats.
I think you (and a lot of others that mean the same) are wrong (although I also had to consider the same when Wightman beat a top peaked Jakob)…
There is some disadvantages by leading, but there’s plenty problems by running behind in a competitive field (running wide bends, fighting ++).
But my main argument is this: Jakob does not rely on pacers to run fast (2 sec faster than his opponents). His 3.27.14 in Silesia was on a really really bad day (his day form) -he got so much lactate early (despite not running faster 3 first laps than in Oslo, which was a “leggy run” because of not being fully recovered from his 2 mile WR) that he didn’t dare catching up with the pacers who ran ideally, and after finished he was more exhausted than ever before in a 1500m. But the point is this: He pretty much had no help from the pacers (except MacSweyn over about 150 meters). -Conclusion: Jakob can solo at least a 3.27 flat (maybe a 3.26.5), and the odds of crushing the field is very good!
Well, he was much better in 2023 than in 2022, but was sick in the WC. And the same against Tefera in the indoors (covid). Against Wighman he lost fair and square, but as I said: He’s much better now (when not being sick).
I don’t know about much better.
Well, who knows -Jakob would maybe give you right (he claimed he was much better in 2022 than his 3.29.03), whereas statistics are on my side (2 sec approval, and even more since Jakob clearly didn’t take out his potential in 2023 either).
