I disagree for a couple reasons. First, I think Jakob is good enough to win leading after 400 like he has tried the last couple times. When I watched his PB race in Silesia, I was blown away by how little drafting he actually got. I’m sure there was some psychological benefit to having guys in front of him, and it’s always going to be easier to front run in a Diamond League than a global championship (no rounds), but 3:27.14 with very limited help from the pacers is an underrated performance. I can’t watch that race and convince myself this is a guy who is going to be vulnerable front running 3:29. It makes me think he could have run 3:27 high in Budapest with his Silesia fitness.
I understand some people will think it’s dumb to believe this, but if you look at the last couple championships, Jakob didn’t lose because he chose to front run. In Eugene he made a lot of unnecessary surges, and in Budapest he was sick and still ran a strong race, just not good enough on the day. If he were healthy I don’t see how he would’ve lost based on the way the rest of the season went. Maybe he wasn’t good enough in 2022 and would’ve lost even without battling the Kenyans for lead, but he was on another level in 2023.
In every Diamond league meet, he gets less pacing than the rest of the field (they still get to draft off him once the rabbits drop) and is crushing everyone regardless, even when they are near him in the final stages (Oslo, Lausanne). I don’t think all of that comes from getting 1000m of pacing vs 400 (Kipsang has taken the first lap in the last two finals), and Silesia proves it (to me at least). There wasn’t a 1500m race on the circuit this year where he drafted less, yet he still ran a huge PB with a strong finish.
The other thing is that although he is one of the slower guys in terms of 400 speed, he’s not slow. This gets harped on a lot as this huge weakness he has, but the way he ran the Budapest semis tells me his speed is underrated. Closing a 3:35 in 51 high while waving to the crowd and really only kicking in the last 200 is pretty impressive, and not something that indicates a guy who can’t even break 50 for 400 (like many here have speculated), or is so lacking in acceleration or finish that he could never win a tactical race. In a 3:35-3:40 championship scenario I think he has about as good a chance as anyone else.
He likes to front run (and not just for tactical reasons, see his Eugene interview) so I’m assuming we will get a repeat of the last couple years, but if he’s healthy I think he will bury the field. His biggest regret in Eugene was not going harder the 3rd lap, and I assume he would have tried it this year if not for being sick and realizing it wasn’t going to happen on the day. I’d personally rather see him sit behind the leader for 600-700 and then start cranking but that’s not how he likes to do it.
Looking forward to the Olympics in any case, and a little drama leading up to the season never hurts.
tldr; Jakob can win Worlds/Olympics from the front. His best time of the year came in a race with minimal drafting (not much more than he got in the last two World finals).