Pick Your U.S. Men's 1500m Team Now

I think goose and cole make it, but would replace teare with centro as he's coming into form and experience is huge in championship racing.

I'm doubtful of Kessler due to his lack of experience winning big ones. He's clearly the most talented but the longer he doesn't produce championship results the less likely he is to be a serious contender, no matter how fast he is (see Webb). I'll be rooting for him to destroy the field but I'll believe it when I see it.

This race is going to be relatively slow until the last lap. No one in this field has an interest in taking it out, except maybe for Kessler, because while he has the fastest time so far, he is not a kicker like Hocker or Nuguse.

My picks (not in any order):

Nuguse is an obvious pick. Undefeated this season with the exception of Jakob. If it takes the Olympic Gold medalist to beat him, then it would be a huge upset if he didn't make the team.

Hocker's 1500 at the Portland Track meet last week cemented his spot on the team for me. For a late season opener, he made a late-race surge from basically last to 2nd. I can only assume he's gonna get sharper, unless there is some hidden injury he's dealing with. No signs of one there.

I'm gonna go on a limb and pick Waskom for 3rd place. However, Joe does not have the qualifying standard and I do not think the race will go below the standard (3:35), at least for Joe. Like I said before, this will be a kicker's race and he has had some excellent, well-timed kicks. Last weekend displayed a Centrowitz that cannot handle a hot final lap. I believe Teare and Kessler will be there with 150 to go, but will not be able to kick hard enough.

What did I get wrong here?

1. Nuguse - clear favorite, fastest man in the world this year at 1500/mile, took a loss to Jakob but still clearly in the mix for the world title, should mop up domestically.

2. Hocker - that 3:34 with a 55 close was a great sign for him, he’s got the talent and the close, Nuguse will get the better of him in the rematch though.

3. Kessler - close between him and Teare but I‘m gonna go with the guy that won their last matchup. I also think Kessler, even if he doesn’t make the team, will throw down a 3:29-3:30 at a DL race this summer.

Leaving Teare off feels a little rough considering he’s the defending champion and he’s had a great 2023 outdoor so far, a 3:32 on American soil is a phenomenal opener. It’s more about what the others have done than what he hasn’t. Centrowitz will also definitely be in the mix, a 3:36 in May is fine running for him. I don’t think he’ll quite make the team though, but he might be back next year.

+1

Seen through neutral glasses from the other side of the Atlantic I will say Nuguse is in the very top of the world in the 1500m/ mile at the moment.

I have argued in another post that he is no. 2 after Jakob despite Tim having the world lead at the moment.

I think this will be clear in Oslo in 10 days. If the conditions ( weather, pacing etcetera) are good I wouldn´t be surprised if Nuguse goes sub 3:30. Jakob is reportedly going after a fast time so there will perfect pacing all the way through.

Nuguse does not have a better kick than Kessler in a slow race. If you look at Hobbs first USATF experience. In his prelim, he ran a 12.5 last 100m shutting down the last 30m after he was in position. In his semi, he was woefully out of place - 12th at bell. Ran 39.3 last 300m but walked across the line (literally) because he was in 7th. Would've been 38 low - mid.

So, if we are talking closing 51 off to win in 3:43. I pick Teare, Centro, Hocker and Hobbs over Nuguse. But if we are talking closing in 53 to win 3:34-35, that's where I think Nuguse's sweet spot is. =

With that said, I don't think he lets it come down to the last 100m. I think he has a sustained effort from 500-600 out.

What's with the 3:33 predictions? I know that's not super-fast but its faster than I'd predict a US final going, with rounds, no pacers or lights, and the top contenders all thinking they have the best kick. My $.02:

- Neguse - By far the most fit and consistent in the US right now

- Teare - A recent past champ and strong finisher with good recent results

- Gregorek - Very experienced running rounds and qualifying. Also a strong finisher if he can get himself in a good position the last 300.

I'd love to see Kessler or Hocker make it, but so far they have ONE result each (excellent results, but still).

My only for sure pick is Yared Nuguse. After that I think Cole Hocker and Hobbs Kessler would be good picks. Personally I’m pulling for Johnny Gregorek. It all depends on how the races go, but my three choices are;

1) Yared Nuguse

2) Hobbs Kessler

3) Cole Hocker

I think Kessler takes it out hard and is gunned down in the last 100 by Nuguse. Then Hocker goes from something like 6th or 8th and passes the chase pack to get 3rd at the line.

How does anyone think Centro can make the team when he doesn't have the standard/high enough ranking? He could finish top 3 at USAs...sure...but without standard/ranking...he's staying home.

He's 1.5 seconds behind Engels now and 3 seconds behind Drew Hunter. I believe he can beat both of them, but not Kessler or Teare, much less Nuguse or Hocker. Not at this point in his career. I would say that the odds are better that he won't make the final than he makes the top 3. And he's like a brother to me.

I'm also pulling for Gregorek. At Portland Gregorek was in terrible position coming off the turn and had to slow to get around Bartelsmeyer. He was then able to accelerate and match Hocker's kick even after slowing. Better tactics and I think he could be ahead there.

Also, I wonder if Centro ran Portland on tired legs in order to prep for the rounds. I know people are saying he is older, but he is only two years removed from a 3:49 mile. I have a hard time picking him for top three, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Kessler just outkicked Teare, who has held his own more than a few times against Hocker. So you can't rule him out based on finishing speed. I see Nuguse holding off Hocker, and no one else able to hold either of them off in the final. But Teare and Kessler should be close behind. If Hobbs doesn't make the podium, I think it is more a question of experience, as others have mentioned, or of aerobic fitness relative to Teare, since he'll have to deal with two very competitive rounds.

This

Yared Nuguse wins, leading the final 600 meters and running away with it to win with ease.

Hobbs Kessler and Hocker kick by Teare and Centro for second (Hobbs) and third (Hocker).

Centro hasn't shown a kick yet, and his follow up 1500 after his 3:36 was a 3:38.2 for 13th. Still worried about Cole Hocker even though he outperformed his expectations for his 3:34, don't know if he actually doubted he could break 3:39 or if it was a safe milestone for him to hit, I could see him getting dropped in a fast final. The safest bets for now are Nuguse, Kessler, and Teare but I expect at least one surprise.

1. Nuguse

2. Hocker

3. Teare

5. Kessler

Agree with the top 2. 3 is a struggle with me. Teare will be there, but I fear a kicker stealing it from him. But who? Candidates: Waskom, Green, Kessler, Thompson. I’m actually gonna go with Green, I think he’s got a Jonathan Davis type kick incoming.

1) Matthew MF Centrowitz with his Olympic gold medal bouncing softly against his chest

2) Goose

3) Hocker after unleashing a monstrous kick to move up from 10th place at 120m to go

The Tim vs Nuguse thing is kinda an unnecessary mental exercise at this time. Tim/Nuguse both had a ton of travel to their last race and I’d say both performed admirably. Tim was super-patient, Yared a little lost tactically. Both should be much better in Oslo