Odds she does double at nats?
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Ezrun wrote:
Odds she does double at nats?
Tuohy? Odds she competes in both? I'd say 100% (assuming no medical scratch). Odds she wins both? I'd say 75% (unless Valby medical scratches) then 85-90%. Neither is a lock imho but a 5000 w/o Valby gets easier.
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bumblebee wrote:
Not sure if this was noted in another thread but this is such a crap situation all around. Athlete did everything right and is let down by incompetent coaches/administrators and NCAA not caring about punishing the right people
That's what you get for going to Portland State...not a real track & field program
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I hope you're right, should be exciting, It's not an easy double to do though... Last year she was totally gassed after a fast 1500 at conference champs...
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Ezrun wrote:
I hope you're right, should be exciting, It's not an easy double to do though... Last year she was totally gassed after a fast 1500 at conference champs...
well this year after 1/3 the recovery time (30 min) after a similar 1500 she ran 15:50.
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Ok7272 wrote:
That sounds like an awful idea. He could win the 1500 I think.
I'm also confused as to why Illinois and Wisconsin are in the West. ARen't they east of the mississippi? Is Louisiana in the East.It's been like this since 2010, ever since they went from 4 regions to 2.
More DI Track & Field programs are in the east than the west. In an attempt to keep the numbers somewhat equal schools in Wisconsin and Illinois are in the west.
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FastTuohy wrote:
Ezrun wrote:
Odds she does double at nats?
Tuohy? Odds she competes in both? I'd say 100% (assuming no medical scratch). Odds she wins both? I'd say 75% (unless Valby medical scratches) then 85-90%. Neither is a lock imho but a 5000 w/o Valby gets easier.
let me make that 50% to win both if Valby competes - I think she will be tough to beat not being fresh. Maybe 80% w/o Valby.
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I don’t think you can medical scratch any events and stay in an event like if they scratched one event, I think they would be out of regionals. Since it’s a medical scratch, I don’t think you can say I’m healthy enough to run a 10k, but I can’t do the five or whatever.
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Can not do it bro wrote:
I don’t think you can medical scratch any events and stay in an event like if they scratched one event, I think they would be out of regionals. Since it’s a medical scratch, I don’t think you can say I’m healthy enough to run a 10k, but I can’t do the five or whatever.
What you say is right, but that is not what I said.
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Ezrun wrote:
I hope you're right, should be exciting, It's not an easy double to do though... Last year she was totally gassed after a fast 1500 at conference champs...
I’ve mentioned it a few times on the boards. And now TheStrideReport once again states the same:
“But if Tuohy does win double gold in these events come mid-June, then her ongoing campaign to eventually win The Bowerman Award will grow even stronger -- and maybe insurmountable.”
*I will be watching with excitement*
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FastTuohy wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
Tuohy? Odds she competes in both? I'd say 100% (assuming no medical scratch). Odds she wins both? I'd say 75% (unless Valby medical scratches) then 85-90%. Neither is a lock imho but a 5000 w/o Valby gets easier.
let me make that 50% to win both if Valby competes - I think she will be tough to beat not being fresh. Maybe 80% w/o Valby.
T&FN has Tuohy ranked 3rd in the 1500 behind Appleton and Howell and she is ranked 4th in the 5k behind Valby, Venters, and Plourde. Not sure who does the rankings for that publication but I don’t think they are very familiar with Tuohy’s actual race results this year.
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Interesting. Is there a link
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If you scratch an early event you are out of rest of the meet. If you say win the 1500, then scratch the 5000, you are only out of the 4x4 relay (that's the rest of the meet). That said barring a real medical concern, Touhy will race 5k for win, or supporting team points..
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Gator bait wrote:
If you scratch an early event you are out of rest of the meet. If you say win the 1500, then scratch the 5000, you are only out of the 4x4 relay (that's the rest of the meet). That said barring a real medical concern, Touhy will race 5k for win, or supporting team points..
The following applies to all athlets:
Note the last sentence.
Scratching Student-Athletes from First Round Championships Competition after Declarations.Scratching a student-athlete from any event for any reason at any point after the declaration deadline eliminates the student-athlete from First round championships competition and from advancing to the final championships competition in any event (including combined events). Final notice of scratches for those ill or injured must be submitted by the deadline not later than 2 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, May 21. All scratches must be emailed to Sean Laughlin (email: ) and Jeff Mlynski (). Failure to notify Mr. Laughlin and Mr. Mlynski
may result in a minimum of $400 fine.
Once competition begins, a student-athlete who fails to start or finish in any event at the First round or national championship sites, and is entered in additional events, must receive medical verification from the host medical staff stating that they were unable to finish or start the event. Additionally, they must then get medically cleared before they can be eligible to return to competition in any other event. The proper medical paperwork must be completed and will be available in the medical area at each site. (Rule 12-18)
National Championships Declarations.There is no separate declaration period or procedure for the finalchampionships competition. Declaration for the overall championships occurs before the First round championships competition and those who qualify in any championships competition must continue to participate in the next round of competition. The Track and Field and Cross Country Committee will post online the qualifiers from the events at each First round championships competition. Failure to participate, after qualifying, is a violation of Rule 14-2a and subject to the penalties of Rule 14-2d.
Medical Scratches after First Round Championships. Medical scratches must be reported by email to Sean Laughlin () and Jeff Mlynski () before the deadline by 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Sunday, June 4. Every possible effort will be made to replace a competitor in events not contested at the
First round championships competition (Heptahlon & Decathlon). A First round championships qualifier, who has earned advancement as prescribed in the NCAA Cross Country/Track & Field Rules Book, cannot be replaced. The reporting of a medical scratch facilitates more equitable seeding in the event affected. If the medical scratch occurs before arriving on site, then the scratch must be verified by the institution’s team doctor.
If the scratch occurs after arriving on site, the scratch must be verified by host medical personnel.01 -
I guess this means Kemboi is really doing the triple. I don't get it, she is not a title contender in the 1500m so why run it too? She could be a contender in the other events, but now she won't be as fresh.
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Tuohy could only muster a 16 minute 5K after a 4:06 1500 last year... What's the time between the two races? If she can win both that would be a big step up in fitness level looks like it'll take a 408 and a 15:20 to win both.
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Troll patrol wrote:
FastTuohy wrote:
let me make that 50% to win both if Valby competes - I think she will be tough to beat not being fresh. Maybe 80% w/o Valby.
T&FN has Tuohy ranked 3rd in the 1500 behind Appleton and Howell and she is ranked 4th in the 5k behind Valby, Venters, and Plourde. Not sure who does the rankings for that publication but I don’t think they are very familiar with Tuohy’s actual race results this year.
I don't agree with the formchart however I'd guess they are giving a lot of weight to the 1500m semis and final plus the 5000m and likely in some hot weather.
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The 1500/5000 double does not seem practicable given the schedule. The 5000m national title was a layup if she ran it alone. The 1500 is a race where any mishap can cost you the race.
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fada tyme wrote:
Troll patrol wrote:
T&FN has Tuohy ranked 3rd in the 1500 behind Appleton and Howell and she is ranked 4th in the 5k behind Valby, Venters, and Plourde. Not sure who does the rankings for that publication but I don’t think they are very familiar with Tuohy’s actual race results this year.
I don't agree with the formchart however I'd guess they are giving a lot of weight to the 1500m semis and final plus the 5000m and likely in some hot weather.
They may also be factoring in that others have raced the 1500m more this season, or figuring it will be a more tactical race (quite possible given the heat).
For the 5k, I don't see Venters and Plourde both beating Tuohy. Plourde will be in the 1500m too so that does not make sense.
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