Centro's 2016 Olympic win, in combination with his underperformance in 2015, has caused many people to underestimate him rather than overestimate him.
In 2011,12,13, he was 3rd, 4th, 2nd at the three global championships. In 2011, he was coming off a college season and some people felt it was a fluke, or at least unreplicable. In 2012, his performance got lost behind Manzano's. But after 2013, there was widespread agreement that Centrowitz was a consistent global medal threat, with potential for gold.
Going into the 2015 WC, there was a lot of talk on this site about whether Centro could make the step up to gold. Most people thought no, because Kiprop was invincible at the time (lol). I believe Centro himself had said he was going to go for it, and he did (see race video below). He took the lead on the homestraight of the penultimate lap, but never fully got around Manangoi, and was swallowed up 150m later. It was a disappointing performance, given the high expectations, but it wasn't clear that Centro was any worse in this race that he previous global championships; sometimes you shoot your shot and it doesn't work.