Jakob will never break 3:26

Are you purposely missing the point? Jakob made a break for the lead early and set a fast pace. Cheruiyot overtook him and kept on pressing. Where did El G set an early pace and then fall into formation for a sub-3:30 championship win?

eh? what country do you imagine I'm from or support? Your assumptions are wild and your posts are off base.

Don't bother, mate. You're in a losing argument with a person hell-bent on idolising and worshipping Moroccan athletes. 

JI might get ir or not, but it's certain, that someone, who has run 3:28 in a championship race should and surely will try to get it sometime. 

The relevant questions here should be where, when and how such attempt will take place.

Prior to his WR attempt El Guerrouj had a PB of 3:28.91. The Golden League 1500m race in Rome took place in a non-championship year (1998) and featured several strong runners: Daniel Komen (3:29.46 PB at the time), Laban Rotich (3:30.13 PB at the time) and John Kibowen (3:30.44 PB at the time) as well as 10 others + 2 pacemakers.

1st pacemaker Robert Kibet was a 1:43 800m man at a decline of his career and 2nd pacemaker was nobody less than Noah Ngeny, who was a 3:32 guy then and right at the beginning of his impressive career.

Therefore I could see Jakob giving it a go in Monaco, Bislett or Lausanne having Sowinski (800m) and maybe McSweyn (1100m - 1200m) as pacemakers. A good question is if Cheruiyot and Manangoi should be in the race as well, as it would introduce more tension and also create a chance for them to go for the WR themselves.

Another complication is created by a fact, that in 2022 and also 2023 there will be world championships with no "off year" inbetween. Preparation for a championship and a time trial differs significantly, so this could cost Jakob either a serious attempt at the WR or a chance at the gold medal. Same goes for 2024 with Olympic Games in Paris.

I doubt that he is capable of running 3:25 in a championship final, therefore JI might end up being like Mo Farrah: a decorated championship racer with no WR.

do you ever sit down and think about how far off the deep end you are?

In February, 1979 no one predicted Seb Coe's WRs that coming summer. No one. And if asked, every "expert" and armchair hobby jogger would have laughed off the possibility.

reckon mo farah could have broken 3:26 in another universe where he became a 1500m runner

I think what's fascinating is the constant babble of the 90's being the "height of EPO era".. obviously none of you are still involved in athletics. EPO has only become more heightened since the 90's in addition to more and more cocktails.

Drugs are a lame excuse. You cannot prove nor disprove anyone is clean or dirty other than a failed test and ban or admission of guilt. Plain and simple.

It would be like me saying the 80's were the height of the steroid era, thus Coe is expelled. And as we all know, steroids, like EPO, have become more mainstream since then.

Is there any actual evidence that starting training from an earlier age results in an earlier peak? I see this promulgated all the time, but I don't think I've ever seen research supporting it.

Good analysis, I think you are spot on. I think he will be more tempted by gold untill the olympics at least, and then it might be to late for records anyway. (Not that there is any high chance for a record no matter what he wish.).

I think JI is quite grounded. So he might rather dream of 2x olympic gold and 2x wc gold in 1500m with a chance of 5000m success as an absolute dream outcome (if its practically possible) rather than to risk giving it all for a unprobable world record. Note that I am not saying 2x OL gold and 2xwc gold is in the bag, just what is something that could be a dream outcome for JI.

I think it has been stated so many times in here that people think this is some rule of physics.

Idk man. When youre running 80 miles per week starting at 6 years old, that's gotta do something to your improvement curve besides just raising the peak.

As a 21 year old, S. Coe, summer, 1978 set an 800m personal best of 1:44.xx. All 21 or 22 year old 1:44.xx 800m men should be taken seriously when they race 800m to one mile. One mile world record, Oslo, 1979, I knew Steve Scott was likely to lose to Coe with 660 yards to go. Are you implying J. Ingebrigtsen is going to run a 1:44.xx 800m at age 21?

Jakob will possibly not run a 800m in this championship year BUT.......

He could most likely run sub 1:45 already this year with a bit of preparation. He is - as you know - far better than Centro and Engels who both ran sub 1:45.

Why? Other than getting tired of running. This must be the only sport where it is a negative to have started early.

Bold take El G

I don't think the early start makes the difference people think, but it does matter. I would say the clock doesn't truly start until you are fully grown. 15 or 16 years old maybe

Nobody clean can run 3:26. El G was very likely on EPO. Don't forget, the guy who came the closest in recent years is serving a 4-year ban.

si.com

Olympic champion Asbel Kiprop banned four years for EPO use

Chris Chavez

Asbel Kiprop maintains his innoncence and will appeal the suspension.

Link:www.si.com/olympics/2019/04/22/asbel-k...

I would put $100,000 down that he breaks 3:26. Vegas odds say I would probably make a $1,000,000 on my bet which means its a 1 in 10 that he does it. So he will likely run 3:25 point. I don't think he will run 3:25. I am actually wondering how far under 3:25 he runs will he run 3:24 low mid or high or will he brak 3:24 and run 3:23.9 or something.