schmegoly the 10 year is down to 3.57 again. rally caps, gents!
Loving short term bonds here - short rates are being held up by the federal reserve while the longer bonds trade with the market and are falling. I'll collect my 5% from ST bonds and then get my big capital gain when the fed starts cutting. In the meantime....they are low risk short term bonds so I'm not risking much.
What bonds are paying 5%?
I believe one year treasuries are yielding 4.7% and short term corporates a little more than that.
You can look at funds SHY for government, and VCSH for corporates. But funds are tricky...they still own some bonds paying 1% - those haven't all rolled out yet.
I believe one year treasuries are yielding 4.7% and short term corporates a little more than that.
You can look at funds SHY for government, and VCSH for corporates. But funds are tricky...they still own some bonds paying 1% - those haven't all rolled out yet.
I bonds are currently paying 6.9% through April. But the initial rate is only guaranteed for the first 6 months of ownership and after that the rate could fall all the way to zero.
I believe one year treasuries are yielding 4.7% and short term corporates a little more than that.
You can look at funds SHY for government, and VCSH for corporates. But funds are tricky...they still own some bonds paying 1% - those haven't all rolled out yet.
I bonds are currently paying 6.9% through April. But the initial rate is only guaranteed for the first 6 months of ownership and after that the rate could fall all the way to zero.
The base rate is .4% so it will never fall to zero, and for it even to fall to .4% we would need an inflation rate of 0% which while possible is extremely unlikely. I picked up 5K on 1/3, I'll wait til April to decide whether to pick up another 5K at the current rate or gamble that the base rate goes up in May.
I bonds are currently paying 6.9% through April. But the initial rate is only guaranteed for the first 6 months of ownership and after that the rate could fall all the way to zero.
The base rate is .4% so it will never fall to zero, and for it even to fall to .4% we would need an inflation rate of 0% which while possible is extremely unlikely. I picked up 5K on 1/3, I'll wait til April to decide whether to pick up another 5K at the current rate or gamble that the base rate goes up in May.
bottom line is that iBonds are almost guaranteed to provide a better return than savings accounts. To me that's the benefit. They are comparatively better.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2022 (with 20 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 15 S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 13 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
I believe one year treasuries are yielding 4.7% and short term corporates a little more than that.
You can look at funds SHY for government, and VCSH for corporates. But funds are tricky...they still own some bonds paying 1% - those haven't all rolled out yet.
I bonds are currently paying 6.9% through April. But the initial rate is only guaranteed for the first 6 months of ownership and after that the rate could fall all the way to zero.
But you are only required to hold iBonds for one year, so not much at stake there in terms of a long term commitment (unless you choose to). And I doubt such a downward rate revision in 6 months is likely.
Seems crystal clear that if Kevin stays as speaker, the right wingers he put in charge of the rules committee will intentionally try to kill the us economy by strangling it to death in the name of a balanced budget. how do we deal with this as investors? Clearly it increases risks. Maybe some kind of cheap put that matures in august, after the inevitable shutdown and possible default.
Seems crystal clear that if Kevin stays as speaker, the right wingers he put in charge of the rules committee will intentionally try to kill the us economy by strangling it to death in the name of a balanced budget. how do we deal with this as investors? Clearly it increases risks. Maybe some kind of cheap put that matures in august, after the inevitable shutdown and possible default.
Can only hope there is a shutdown and an end to this out of control spending.
Seems crystal clear that if Kevin stays as speaker, the right wingers he put in charge of the rules committee will intentionally try to kill the us economy by strangling it to death in the name of a balanced budget. how do we deal with this as investors? Clearly it increases risks. Maybe some kind of cheap put that matures in august, after the inevitable shutdown and possible default.
Can only hope there is a shutdown and an end to this out of control spending.
Why do that? MMT works so well. Look at all the good it has done. 😹
I believe one year treasuries are yielding 4.7% and short term corporates a little more than that.
You can look at funds SHY for government, and VCSH for corporates. But funds are tricky...they still own some bonds paying 1% - those haven't all rolled out yet.
I bonds are currently paying 6.9% through April. But the initial rate is only guaranteed for the first 6 months of ownership and after that the rate could fall all the way to zero.
Only if there's deflation. I bonds are guaranteed to at least match inflation, which isn't a lot but beats a savings account if you have no appetite for risk.
I am mostly in index funds. I like that they have low annual costs and I like the diversity.
But I have some side money that I want to throw out and take more risk.
What would you do with say $30,000 that you don't care if you lost a good portion and don't plan to touch for 8-10 years.
I am thinking of getting $6000 of the following 5 stocks and not touching it for 8 - 10 years and see what happens. Not going to try to make trades anytime unless really really bad news comes out. Just let it ride.
NVDA
Rivian
Broadcom AVGO
CRWD - Crowdstrike
Amazon
It has almost been a year and this portfolio is not doing well. It is down to $17674. I'll hold it for another 9 or more years and see what happens. Not a good first year. haha.
This post updates our value spread with data through the end of 2022. The fourth quarter of 2022 saw value recover from the bout of temporary insanity that gripped some portion of the market over the summer, but the spread en...
Weirdly similar to 2008-9 when we had a low in fall 2008, a rise, then a new low in March, then recovery. 2022 could have had the same two-low pattern.
THe october 2022 low was around 100 days after the previous 2022 low...getting close to that. Market feels to have a bid under it now - if it ticks down there seem to be buyers to stop the steep drops we had in 2022.
Weirdly similar to 2008-9 when we had a low in fall 2008, a rise, then a new low in March, then recovery. 2022 could have had the same two-low pattern.
THe october 2022 low was around 100 days after the previous 2022 low...getting close to that. Market feels to have a bid under it now - if it ticks down there seem to be buyers to stop the steep drops we had in 2022.
I think Tesla going to have a monster year. Down from 350 a year ago to 116 now. If it comes up with some significant innovations it could see a major rebound. If only Musk had not gone off on his Twitter binge.
Weirdly similar to 2008-9 when we had a low in fall 2008, a rise, then a new low in March, then recovery. 2022 could have had the same two-low pattern.
THe october 2022 low was around 100 days after the previous 2022 low...getting close to that. Market feels to have a bid under it now - if it ticks down there seem to be buyers to stop the steep drops we had in 2022.
I think Tesla going to have a monster year. Down from 350 a year ago to 116 now. If it comes up with some significant innovations it could see a major rebound. If only Musk had not gone off on his Twitter binge.
Going the other direction, adding to shorts on bounces. Then selling tactically on market rollovers. I can’t imagine earnings being anything but awful.
On an anecdotal note, transmission went out on our 2002 Acura. Checked out some car lots on Sunday. Loaded with used car inventory, but very little new inventory. Interest rates 5.75% standard on short term, above 6% extended out. Last year we drove that car 2,000 miles, so we chose just to repair it, which will run around $4,000. We are out about two weeks on completion, so I imagine others are going the same route.
Take a loaf of hope, knead it with oodles of optimism, add a generous sprinkling of speculation and definitely avoid even a hint of reality. Bake the concoction carefully, and what do you get? The current state of mind of inv...
