We have really spent a lot of time visiting this topic, esp. since the market has clearly and unequivocally gone in a direction this year favorable to the views of both you and John Hussman.
It all boils down to this, as I said originally (to which you responded as noted above), his fund and the permabear projections have not be born out over the long term. Yes, they have been born out this year, but taken in their entirety, it has so far been very misguided. To have missed market appreciation over the last decade is just sad.
CRUX OF MESSAGE: So, in my estimation, for either the permabear forecasts like yours or for the total reputation of Hussman and his funds to actually gain credibility, the markets will need to give back several years worth of gains. You and I both know that in your case, you have calling for markets to tank since about 2017 and perhaps much earlier. Well, when we get to that level, I will say that you were right. We have a long way to go. And I do not feel that the downturn this year validates the view that markets are strictly valuation driven.
As for your implications about market manipulation or "odd events" in the night, sounds titillating, but I don't have the foggiest idea what you are talking about.
That said, good job getting it right this year on market direction and I'll leave it at that.
Seattle,
I will answer this way, since 2017 $7 Trillion in Fed stimulus and Government handouts convinced most here that valuations do not matter. More than that amount has been erased from the markets in 2022. Real estate and crypto would drive that figure even higher.
But best to you in 2023.
Igy
Over $7 trillion in stock market cap has been erased from the Nasdaq 100.
All I can say is regarding the markets, it's a long and winding road to penny lane. But I say don't look back to yesterday, because here comes the sun, and markets, 'don't let me down.'
Anyone suddenly feel an urge to que up a beatles song?
All I can say is regarding the markets, it's a long and winding road to penny lane. But I say don't look back to yesterday, because here comes the sun, and markets, 'don't let me down.'
Anyone suddenly feel an urge to que up a beatles song?
Provided to YouTube by Universal Music GroupStrawberry Fields Forever (Remastered 2009) · The BeatlesMagical Mystery Tour℗ 2009 Calderstone Productions Limit...
Provided to YouTube by Universal Music GroupWhile My Guitar Gently Weeps (Remastered 2009) · The BeatlesThe Beatles℗ 2009 Calderstone Productions Limited (a ...
Dump all my liquid assets into short term (up to a year) CDs and Bonds paying @ 4.75% (best I see right now) or continue to set 10%-15% aside to bet vs. the market.
Also could consider some longer terms CDs and bonds paying about the same in case cannot get rates as high as 4.75% in a year.
Down 8% on the year. Not too bad considering how the S&P and NASDAQ fared. And my 7-year total still has me up 43% over that period, so no tears being shed here.
Sold NFLX, CVX, and DGX at tidy profits. Bought MRNA, HD, AMZN, QCOM, PG, NFLX, WEBR and RSP.
Happy New Year and best wishes for a profitable 2023.
Down 8% on the year. Not too bad considering how the S&P and NASDAQ fared. And my 7-year total still has me up 43% over that period, so no tears being shed here.
Sold NFLX, CVX, and DGX at tidy profits. Bought MRNA, HD, AMZN, QCOM, PG, NFLX, WEBR and RSP.
Happy New Year and best wishes for a profitable 2023.
Down 8% on the year. Not too bad considering how the S&P and NASDAQ fared. And my 7-year total still has me up 43% over that period, so no tears being shed here.
Sold NFLX, CVX, and DGX at tidy profits. Bought MRNA, HD, AMZN, QCOM, PG, NFLX, WEBR and RSP.
Happy New Year and best wishes for a profitable 2023.