Okay here is the chart. - but it says $10,000 invested when HSGFX opened (July of 2000) would be worth almost $40,000 on June 2022. But I had used 12/31/2021 in my earlier message. Look at page 4.
How can that be? If it initially sold for $10 and is now roughly $7, how has it supposedly quadrupled in value? Honest question.
Mutual funds pay large distributions and dividends most years, which causes NAV to fall but you get more shares, so the economic effect is nil. (in an IRA anyway) So you can't just look at the price of shares to calculate returns - you'd be ignoring the dividends and distributions and when they are reinvested.
Best way to see mutual fund returns is not to look at the price of the shares but use Morningstar - great free source to get all-in returns for mutual funds and ETFs.
How can that be? If it initially sold for $10 and is now roughly $7, how has it supposedly quadrupled in value? Honest question.
Mutual funds pay large distributions and dividends most years, which causes NAV to fall but you get more shares, so the economic effect is nil. (in an IRA anyway) So you can't just look at the price of shares to calculate returns - you'd be ignoring the dividends and distributions and when they are reinvested.
Best way to see mutual fund returns is not to look at the price of the shares but use Morningstar - great free source to get all-in returns for mutual funds and ETFs.
Besides not understanding nominal and real, you can add not understanding stocks and flows to the list. Maybe the Ghost of Wynne Godley can visit him tonight and set him straight.
Hah I had not seen that and it is awesome to behold. Gracias.
and happy holidays to everyone on the boards.
Yes, Margot Robbie as Barbie, who would of thought! I have a feeling we can't take the grandkids to this. Speaking of Margot Robbie, we saw Babylon today. We celebrated Xmas last weekend, flip flop with the in-laws each year. Best description, Singing In the Rain meets Fellini's Satyricon. Might be excessive and long ( 3 hours ) for many people, but I enjoyed it. Great music score, I was dancing out of the theater as it ended.
Hah I had not seen that and it is awesome to behold. Gracias.
and happy holidays to everyone on the boards.
Yes, Margot Robbie as Barbie, who would of thought! I have a feeling we can't take the grandkids to this. Speaking of Margot Robbie, we saw Babylon today. We celebrated Xmas last weekend, flip flop with the in-laws each year. Best description, Singing In the Rain meets Fellini's Satyricon. Might be excessive and long ( 3 hours ) for many people, but I enjoyed it. Great music score, I was dancing out of the theater as it ended.
I do love excess in movies so I'll see it.
I just rewatched Miller's Crossing, made in1990. 32 years ago, astonishingly. It views now as an artifact - of when movies were the king of art forms and movies being self-referential sort of made THAT movie more impressive while at the same time burnishing the reputation of movies in general. A virtuous cycle of praise and reflected glory. Miller's is all about movies. It's a great piece of work, but it has aged, regrettably.
One of my greatest grieves of living through the last 30 years is the end of rock and roll and the art movie. I mean come on. Why? Why those things? Why end some of the best things humans have ever created?
Interesting read from April from permabear Jim Bianco. He correctly wrote that the Fed would be far more aggressive than equity investors believed at the time. At the time a few 50 bp hikes were all that was expected...instead we got a bunch of 75s. And the bond market got it mostly right....stocks hadn't yet.
BUT
Bianco thought the interest rate hikes would slow economic growth...they haven't yet. Will they eventually?
1/11
The story of this hiking cycle continues to be the utter disbelief that the Fed will get very aggressive, and even risk a recession.
Yes, they will!
And their policy is creating carnage in the bond market and eventually losses in your portfolio.
A 🧵to explain
— Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth (@biancoresearch) April 7, 2022
Here's a twitter storm by Bill Ackman predicting double digit inflation unless the Fed tightens like mad and causes a recession.
Well the Fed did do a lot, but not as much as Ackman wanted it to do. But inflation has dropped quickly while economic growth has...increased rather than decreased. Best of both worlds rather than the apocalypse predicted by Ackman.
What did Ackman get wrong? I think he and many others have been treating the post-pandemic period as fundamentally similar to the 1970s. It isn't....the pandemic caused some very specialized and short term moves that are nothing like the 1970s. Combine that with the fact that today's economy is far more resilient and efficient and we get good things happening.
Inflation is out of control. Inflation expectations are getting out of control. Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the @federalreserve will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job, and that is what
Although the wording of the best was a little tricky....Igy seemed to say the NASD would be *below* 10,000 and it never did that. But it certainly closed far, far closer to Igy's prediction than to Sally's.
The bet was that the loser would donate $10 to the winner's favorite charity.
Igy, you out there? Sally first needs to shovel your driveway and then donate $10 to your favorite charity.
Although the wording of the best was a little tricky....Igy seemed to say the NASD would be *below* 10,000 and it never did that. But it certainly closed far, far closer to Igy's prediction than to Sally's.
The bet was that the loser would donate $10 to the winner's favorite charity.
Igy, you out there? Sally first needs to shovel your driveway and then donate $10 to your favorite charity.
At the current pace the NASDAQ would be under 10,000 by the bell. Actually hoping for a rally to reload the shorts.
Actually, I am hoping as well. As i said before, I am looking to buy back some shares I sold at an inopportune time. From past experience, though, the fact that I want it to happen probably means it won't.
Congrats on nailing your call. I hope not to be saying this next year at this time, though.
Although the wording of the best was a little tricky....Igy seemed to say the NASD would be *below* 10,000 and it never did that. But it certainly closed far, far closer to Igy's prediction than to Sally's.
The bet was that the loser would donate $10 to the winner's favorite charity.
Igy, you out there? Sally first needs to shovel your driveway and then donate $10 to your favorite charity.
10,497 is not below 10,000. That bet was a push.
Nice reporting and summary by Agip and Fact checker might get a gift card from me for calling it a push but Igy pretty much cleaned my clock. I still owe Igy a shoveling of his driveway but if Igy tells me his favorite charity (it can't be igy.org - lol - kidding) I will up the donation from $10 to $100.
At the current pace the NASDAQ would be under 10,000 by the bell. Actually hoping for a rally to reload the shorts.
Actually, I am hoping as well. As i said before, I am looking to buy back some shares I sold at an inopportune time. From past experience, though, the fact that I want it to happen probably means it won't.
Congrats on nailing your call. I hope not to be saying this next year at this time, though.
Thanks. I really try to give a valuation opinion rather then an exact timeline. My sense is that S&P 500 4k and NASDAQ 10k are levels that soon will not be revisited for years. The entire construct of this bubble was built on quicksand.
14 months ago Tesla reached a market cap of $1 trillion for the first time. It has since fallen to $353 billion - almost in a free fall. The stock price is at $112 and yahoo finance has a one year target estimate of $250. I bought a lot of TSLA at the wrong time but also a lot at the right time. I would highly recommend getting some TSLA now. I think tech stocks will have a good 2023.
14 months ago Tesla reached a market cap of $1 trillion for the first time. It has since fallen to $353 billion - almost in a free fall. The stock price is at $112 and yahoo finance has a one year target estimate of $250. I bought a lot of TSLA at the wrong time but also a lot at the right time. I would highly recommend getting some TSLA now. I think tech stocks will have a good 2023.
I did really well on Tesla back before it was listed on S&P 500 index, and lost a little since then. But way up overall.
I dumped the little i was dabbling in when he (Musk) started opening his big mouth and expressing views I don't agree with nor appreciate.
Good luck.
I tend to agree that we may be in for big rebounding of tech in the new year.