What else comes with this time of year? I don't know- maybe tax loss harvesting as we approach the year end deadline? Might look into that a little more, but not much to work with in that regard.
I'm gonna "sell" 3 of the terrible crypto coins I had to cover the gains from XLE, PFE, and maybe some savings interest?
Whelp crypto down terribly, Iggy I should've listened. But I'll hold because my income is pretty solid (170k) and I'm still living at home. No doubt there is another run once people get greedy again. On a flight back from Japan now actually kinda buzzed on the champagne.
Stacking cash and waiting for the moment, as I think everybody is. Feel like the Fed might overshoot a small amount and people are gonna overreact. Putin is going to up the ante as well.
I'm gonna "sell" 3 of the terrible crypto coins I had to cover the gains from XLE, PFE, and maybe some savings interest?
Whelp crypto down terribly, Iggy I should've listened. But I'll hold because my income is pretty solid (170k) and I'm still living at home. No doubt there is another run once people get greedy again. On a flight back from Japan now actually kinda buzzed on the champagne.
Stacking cash and waiting for the moment, as I think everybody is. Feel like the Fed might overshoot a small amount and people are gonna overreact. Putin is going to up the ante as well.
No crypto trades for me this year, luckily, I just checked and it seems I once loaded up some funds at the exchange I use, but never pulled the trigger.
All in all, crypto was a net loser for me, and some of that was back in about 2017, for a modest loss, and then again in 2021, for a very negligible amount. And then there is the time I wasted on it, too.
Maserati would get on here every few months and talk it up.
As for market moves, January should be interesting - maybe some clarity on the economic outlook could fuel a better than usual New Year's rally. It does seem that investors are looking for a bottom to establish some long term buy and hold positions. Might the new year do it?
The US economy is showing a lot of resilience, spending levels still robust, strong hiring statistics, etc., all in the face of a determined Fed and persistent (though easing) inflation. And remember the markets are forward looking - the economy doesn;'t actually have to bottom before markets rebound, the markets will probably rebound well before that in anticipation of it happening.
And the markets are are already down a lot. Maybe the outlook is not so much downward as sideways for a while. But it's hard to tell.
And the Fed has all of this data to chew on. When they see *the trends* of the bottom x% giving up, basically tapped out and spending is down… business tapped out and slowing hiring etc… they can just stop or pivot. No probs.
$1 million in the S+P 0n 1/1/2000 would be worth $2.6 million today. Not $5 million. A gain of $1.6 million, not $4 million.
Okay here is the chart. - but it says $10,000 invested when HSGFX opened (July of 2000) would be worth almost $40,000 on June 2022. But I had used 12/31/2021 in my earlier message. Look at page 4.
I don't know what this chart means. Can someone explain in layman's terms?
Like the man said, it's a doozy of a chart. J.H. is using Nonfinancial Corporate Business Gross Value Added as a proxy for S&P 500 sales, as that data only goes back to early 90s.
There are many problems with this, like the index also contains financial corps and value added isn't the same as sales. J.H. also claims to adjust for corporate foreign sales, this is impossible' never mind the fact he doesn't remove value added ( sales ) of foreign subsidiaries in the U.S.; e.g. Toyota, BMW, Sony etc.
It appears that S&P500 P/S and NF MKT CAP/ GVA are higher due to higher margins. Figure 6
You make it sound as if I did all that purposely. Have you considered the possibility that I’m just not as smart as some other investment managers. Why can’t you just blindly accept that my word is gold like Igly and the other lemmings do. Coal in your stocking this year, Mr. Grinch.
The US economy is rocking and rolling. 4q gdp is growing at almost 4% now, per the Fed now cast.
Question is if that will keep inflation high and therefore interest rates high also. That might mean high growth will result in lower stock prices.
But the other Fed forecast, the inflation now cast, says the run rate for month over month inflation is below 3%.
in other words, the Fed sees close to economic nirvana right now: high growth and low inflation.
invest wisely.
Agip as always trying to put lipstick on the pig of an economy Biden has created. GDP isn’t up because the economy is doing well. It’s up because people are paying more for the same stuff, and tapping into their rapidly depleting savings to do so. The personal savings rate is lower than it has ever been since they began tracking it in 1960. Personal savings are declining rapidly.
The US economy is rocking and rolling. 4q gdp is growing at almost 4% now, per the Fed now cast.
Question is if that will keep inflation high and therefore interest rates high also. That might mean high growth will result in lower stock prices.
But the other Fed forecast, the inflation now cast, says the run rate for month over month inflation is below 3%.
in other words, the Fed sees close to economic nirvana right now: high growth and low inflation.
invest wisely.
Agip as always trying to put lipstick on the pig of an economy Biden has created. GDP isn’t up because the economy is doing well. It’s up because people are paying more for the same stuff, and tapping into their rapidly depleting savings to do so. The personal savings rate is lower than it has ever been since they began tracking it in 1960. Personal savings are declining rapidly.
Agip as always trying to put lipstick on the pig of an economy Biden has created. GDP isn’t up because the economy is doing well. It’s up because people are paying more for the same stuff, and tapping into their rapidly depleting savings to do so. The personal savings rate is lower than it has ever been since they began tracking it in 1960. Personal savings are declining rapidly.
Joe the gdp growth numbers are *after* inflation so you are wrong.
stick to oil discussions where you know things, or do some learnin’ before you jump into macro Econ discussions.
Besides not understanding nominal and real, you can add not understanding stocks and flows to the list. Maybe the Ghost of Wynne Godley can visit him tonight and set him straight.
So don’t trust the opinion of basically every other economist out there or the general stock market. Trust agip.
No idea what you are talking about. I’m simply handing over statistics and data. You seem to be reading right wing opinion pieces and thinking they are more true than primary data.
of course every bit of right wing media will be dissing the economy. By now every American adult should know that right wing media is just trump tv and not even trying to be balanced. It sounds like you don’t seek out actual economists and neutral sources for information.
if you want to debate something, throw out a fact and we can talk about it. Maybe you will learn something.
So don’t trust the opinion of basically every other economist out there or the general stock market. Trust agip.
No idea what you are talking about. I’m simply handing over statistics and data. You seem to be reading right wing opinion pieces and thinking they are more true than primary data.
of course every bit of right wing media will be dissing the economy. By now every American adult should know that right wing media is just trump tv and not even trying to be balanced. It sounds like you don’t seek out actual economists and neutral sources for information.
if you want to debate something, throw out a fact and we can talk about it. Maybe you will learn something.
This is seattle prattle. And I endorse the last two posts.
Happy Holidays*.
* And I endorse the wording of that idiom as well.
Joe the gdp growth numbers are *after* inflation so you are wrong.
stick to oil discussions where you know things, or do some learnin’ before you jump into macro Econ discussions.
Besides not understanding nominal and real, you can add not understanding stocks and flows to the list. Maybe the Ghost of Wynne Godley can visit him tonight and set him straight.
Fascinating that Wall Street nailed Sp500 earnings this year....but still the market has fallen 20% so far. Which they didn't see. First you have to get the earnings right, then you have to work on a dozen other variables to predict earnings.
But the fact that the Street seems to be good at predicting earnings suggests that we won't have an earnings recession in 2023, which can't be bad for stonks.
WSJ:
If I told you that a group of really smart people on Wall Street were able to predict exactly how much money America’s biggest companies would make a year from now, you might think they could tell us where the stock market would go. Not so much. Last year Wall Street analysts, the communicators-in-chief to the investor community for the likes of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup, were collectively spot on in estimating corporate earnings for S&P 500 companies. The FactSet consensus prediction is for $221 a share this year, exactly as predicted, with the final quarter still based on estimates. The miss of less than $1 is the smallest in percentage terms for estimates at the end of the year since 1995, data from Refinitiv IBES show, while the consensus has on average been out by more than 9% since then.
Their success is rather spoiled by Wall Street’s total failure to anticipate the bear market in stocks and bonds. The disconnect is a reminder of the perils of forecasting markets: You can be exactly right and dead wrong at the same time. The reason strategists called the S&P 500 so badly wrong was simple enough. Earnings, the vital ingredient in the price-to-earnings ratio, weren’t the story this year. Bond yields were. The Federal Reserve raised rates, the 10-year Treasury yield soared and the valuations investors put on those earnings were crushed. The price part of the P/E ratio plunged, and Wall Street missed it. The average forecast last December for this month’s interest rate was just 0.5%, according to Consensus Economics. The Fed this month raised rates to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Miss a change of this importance and there is little hope of getting anything else right. Few even called the direction of stocks correctly. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup were all bullish, expecting the S&P 500 to hit 5100, 5050 and 4900 respectively. Bank of America‘s strategists were rightly bearish, for the right reason, predicting a rates shock. But their 4600 target was a drop of just 3% from when they published their prediction. The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 3844.82, down 19% for the year so far.
