Believing in false narratives, is stupid. The free lunch you lived on the last decade result in two years of high single digit inflation. That is permanent, and your growth investments will continue to experience compressed multiples. That happens when you think you know something about every topic when in reality you don’t.
Believing in false narratives, is stupid. The free lunch you lived on the last decade result in two years of high single digit inflation. That is permanent, and your growth investments will continue to experience compressed multiples. That happens when you think you know something about every topic when in reality you don’t.
You are the perfect dope for false narratives, and that is why your investments will continue to suck. And therefore you earn the title Groomer of the Stool.
I wish I knew what "Groomer of the Stool" meant. On second thought, it might be best to not know what it means.
You are the perfect dope for false narratives, and that is why your investments will continue to suck. And therefore you earn the title Groomer of the Stool.
I wish I knew what "Groomer of the Stool" meant. On second thought, it might be best to not know what it means.
While I'm not a perma-bull, I DO understand that the majority of stock years are UP, and so consistency wins the race.
If you HAD to pick a binary choice of either permabear or perm-bull, you would be right to be a perma-bull about 73% of the time, and that would make you an overall winner (assuming you don't do something silly like constantly buying and selling searching for tops and bottoms or buying ONLY individual stocks when you are not in a position to do so).
I have been told I do not know how many times since I started investing in the stock market in 1989 that stocks were dead or there would be decades long stagnation or any other negative BS you can imagine...some of which has been memorialized in this thread and proven to be wrong.
It's all just nonsense. The elite run the world, and politicians around the world do whatever they can to appease the elite, and that includes goosing the stock market as much as possible. Market factors and political involvement in the market just are too big a force to have an extended down stock market. And, of course when I say something like that a permabear like yourself or some other yahoo will say something like, "You don't understand how small your portion of the wealth is, blah, blah, blah." Yes, I understand, and no, I don't care. I do not want or need billions of dollars...or even tens of millions. I have more than I planned to have and more than I need.
The way you protect against an UNUSUAL downturn in the market is you do all of these things in addition to continuing to invest no matter the market conditions (in order of importance):
1) Get and stay debt free including owning a home outright. You should do this as SOON as you can while still investing at LEAST 15% of your income into retirement accounts.
2) Make sure to have in retirement at least three YEARS of expenses saved liquid outside of stocks and bonds (and I'm not a fan of bonds at all). This is a VERY important step for people who have maybe just enough to live on (or a little more) than they need when considering invested retirement income, Social Security, and pensions. In my case, I no longer NEED to have this Emergency Fund, but I also now have no need to spend it, so I will just keep it there and perhaps spend it on something big if the opportunity arises. That emergency fund for us is actually only going to grow, because my wife still works, and we still only invest a percentage of her income, and we still have money left over, so it will grow...will probably be at about 4 YEARS of expenses once she finally also retires.
3) Take no more than 4% of your retirement initially, and consider taking even less if you can if you don't have a big pile.
OK, I generally agree to all of that. However, that view is based on 100 years of data, and reaffirmed over the last decade. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 went nowhere 2000-2013, and the NASDAQ flat 2000-2016. The NASDAQ triple from 2016 to early 2022, to now lose 30%. Not inconsequential is the $9 Trillion added to the 2010-2021, and zero cost of money. I suspect markets will be unkind over the next decade. If you feel differently and want to gamble that the odds are in your favor, by all means go ahead.
Actually I have named my obsessed troll “Groomer of the Stool” since he is always kissing my ass. The nickname has a relevant and earlier place in history:
“The Groom of the Stool was a male servant in the household of the English monarch who was responsible for assisting the king in his toileting needs.”
OK, I generally agree to all of that. However, that view is based on 100 years of data, and reaffirmed over the last decade. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 went nowhere 2000-2013, and the NASDAQ flat 2000-2016. The NASDAQ triple from 2016 to early 2022, to now lose 30%. Not inconsequential is the $9 Trillion added to the 2010-2021, and zero cost of money. I suspect markets will be unkind over the next decade. If you feel differently and want to gamble that the odds are in your favor, by all means go ahead.
Permabear. Of course you expect the markets to be unkind over the next decade, because you are a permabear. There is no logical reason to believe that as nothing fundamental has changed. The reasonable expectation is that, until there is a fundamental change in how the markets work, that they will continue to work as they have...~27% down years.
I have become wealthy beyond my wildest imagination by investing in the stock market as I have since 1989, and during that time, only ONE time did it take more than 2 years for me to regain what I lost in any downturn, and that was the Great Recession beginning late 2007.
So, you go ahead and live your permabear life. I will go with reasonable living with zero debt and having way more than I need in investments because I didn't listen to permabears like you every day since 1989.
“There is no logical reason to believe that as nothing fundamental has changed.”
That is a rather foolish statement, and clearly shows you have no depth of market understanding. Just two days ago Japan was the last country to end negative interest rate money on account of rising inflation.
OK, I generally agree to all of that. However, that view is based on 100 years of data, and reaffirmed over the last decade. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 went nowhere 2000-2013, and the NASDAQ flat 2000-2016. The NASDAQ triple from 2016 to early 2022, to now lose 30%. Not inconsequential is the $9 Trillion added to the 2010-2021, and zero cost of money. I suspect markets will be unkind over the next decade. If you feel differently and want to gamble that the odds are in your favor, by all means go ahead.
There you go again cherry-picking the dates. Let's take that 2000 date or yours and run it forwards to the beginning of this year - 2022. Put $1 million in the S & P on 2000 that is now worth $5 million. Put $1 million in your beloved Husssman fund (HSGFX) and that is worth $1.2 million. Woud you rather have a gain of $200K or $4 million?
OK, I generally agree to all of that. However, that view is based on 100 years of data, and reaffirmed over the last decade. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 went nowhere 2000-2013, and the NASDAQ flat 2000-2016. The NASDAQ triple from 2016 to early 2022, to now lose 30%. Not inconsequential is the $9 Trillion added to the 2010-2021, and zero cost of money. I suspect markets will be unkind over the next decade. If you feel differently and want to gamble that the odds are in your favor, by all means go ahead.
There you go again cherry-picking the dates. Let's take that 2000 date or yours and run it forwards to the beginning of this year - 2022. Put $1 million in the S & P on 2000 that is now worth $5 million. Put $1 million in your beloved Husssman fund (HSGFX) and that is worth $1.2 million. Woud you rather have a gain of $200K or $4 million?
Well I just sold in the past week ~10% of my HSGFX that I was up 14% on. Just saying.
“There is no logical reason to believe that as nothing fundamental has changed.”
That is a rather foolish statement, and clearly shows you have no depth of market understanding. Just two days ago Japan was the last country to end negative interest rate money on account of rising inflation.
“There is no logical reason to believe that as nothing fundamental has changed.”
That is a rather foolish statement, and clearly shows you have no depth of market understanding. Just two days ago Japan was the last country to end negative interest rate money on account of rising inflation.
Meh. Permabear.
You always label people. Absolves you from having to weigh other views. May be comfortable short term.