Flagpole's ridiculous claim was that he had beaten the market 32 out of 33 years - and 2022 would have made it 32 out of 34 years - not that he was up for the year.
I think he said he beat the DJI Index in particular, which makes the feat slightly more attainable.
Especially true in down years with value slant and dollar weighted index. However, his current allocation recent performance was closer to the NASDAQ than Dow.
Flagpole's ridiculous claim was that he had beaten the market 32 out of 33 years - and 2022 would have made it 32 out of 34 years - not that he was up for the year.
I think he said he beat the DJI Index in particular, which makes the feat slightly more attainable.
The odds don't change that much regardless of the index. Beating any market any year is about 1/2. To beat the market (Dow, S & P, etc.) 32 out of 33 is about 1 in 6 billion (my calculation). So if everyone on Earth had a stock market account and played against the, let's say Dow each year, the probability is that one person (out of 6 billion on Earth) would beat the Dow 32 out of 33 years.
Just to emphasize how difficult it would be, one's portfolio would have to better the Dow when the Dow had rip-roaring years, and it would also have to better the Dow when Dow had horrible years.
I think he said he beat the DJI Index in particular, which makes the feat slightly more attainable.
The odds don't change that much regardless of the index. Beating any market any year is about 1/2. To beat the market (Dow, S & P, etc.) 32 out of 33 is about 1 in 6 billion (my calculation). So if everyone on Earth had a stock market account and played against the, let's say Dow each year, the probability is that one person (out of 6 billion on Earth) would beat the Dow 32 out of 33 years.
As was discussed back then, a 1:2 chance is extremely generous and it's likely closer to 1:10
I think he said he beat the DJI Index in particular, which makes the feat slightly more attainable.
The odds don't change that much regardless of the index. Beating any market any year is about 1/2. To beat the market (Dow, S & P, etc.) 32 out of 33 is about 1 in 6 billion (my calculation). So if everyone on Earth had a stock market account and played against the, let's say Dow each year, the probability is that one person (out of 6 billion on Earth) would beat the Dow 32 out of 33 years.
Dow versus S&P 500 2000-2002:
Dow = -6.17%, -7.10%, -16.76%
S&P 500 = -10.14%, -13.04%, -23.37%
i would expect similar divergence during the current bear market, and for the same reason (Dow slant to value as opposed to growth, and dollar weighted versus market cap weighted).
The odds don't change that much regardless of the index. Beating any market any year is about 1/2. To beat the market (Dow, S & P, etc.) 32 out of 33 is about 1 in 6 billion (my calculation). So if everyone on Earth had a stock market account and played against the, let's say Dow each year, the probability is that one person (out of 6 billion on Earth) would beat the Dow 32 out of 33 years.
As was discussed back then, a 1:2 chance is extremely generous and it's likely closer to 1:10
Misremember his contributions, miscalculating time weighted returns. That and his big ego got in the way.
The odds don't change that much regardless of the index. Beating any market any year is about 1/2. To beat the market (Dow, S & P, etc.) 32 out of 33 is about 1 in 6 billion (my calculation). So if everyone on Earth had a stock market account and played against the, let's say Dow each year, the probability is that one person (out of 6 billion on Earth) would beat the Dow 32 out of 33 years.
As was discussed back then, a 1:2 chance is extremely generous and it's likely closer to 1:10
i looked it up and one article says the chance of beating a market index in any given year is 25%. Beating it two years in a row would be 25% x 25% (or 6.25%). So, as Sally said, doing this for many years on end are far far below one percent likelihood.
If interested, see the chart at the end of this article for the calculation.
Many investors believe they can beat the market or pay a professional to do it for them. Wrong! Smart investors know trying is not worth the time, effort, and money spent.
If he basically bets vs. the market, then he has underperformed.
I have SPDN, QID, and PSQ as my bets against the maket (sadly did not buy them until mid year).
SPDN is up 18.70%, QID is up 66.17% (about doubles the return of the NASDAQ in the opposite direction), and PSQ up 35.63%. S+P 500 is down just under 20%
As was discussed back then, a 1:2 chance is extremely generous and it's likely closer to 1:10
i looked it up and one article says the chance of beating a market index in any given year is 25%. Beating it two years in a row would be 25% x 25% (or 6.25%). So, as Sally said, doing this for many years on end are far far below one percent likelihood.
If interested, see the chart at the end of this article for the calculation.
If he basically bets vs. the market, then he has underperformed.
I have SPDN, QID, and PSQ as my bets against the maket (sadly did not buy them until mid year).
SPDN is up 18.70%, QID is up 66.17% (about doubles the return of the NASDAQ in the opposite direction), and PSQ up 35.63%. S+P 500 is down just under 20%
Apples and oranges. You bought the wrong investment to begin with, and own the correct one now. However, I told you would be better off holding HSGFX and selling Bitcoin, Tesla. That holds for 2023 as well, imho.
As was discussed back then, a 1:2 chance is extremely generous and it's likely closer to 1:10
i looked it up and one article says the chance of beating a market index in any given year is 25%. Beating it two years in a row would be 25% x 25% (or 6.25%). So, as Sally said, doing this for many years on end are far far below one percent likelihood.
If interested, see the chart at the end of this article for the calculation.
That article and related graphs you linked to discusses how rare it is for actively managed funds to beat their respective indexes. Much of that is because actively managed fund managers charge high annual fees. I have always read that 70- to 80% of indexes beat actively managed funds. Also, Flagpole has been saying his entire portfolio has been beating the Dow Jones 32 out of 33 years.
The Dow can fluctuate or "tumble" due to a variety of factors such as changes in economic conditions, investor sentiment, and global events as described in link.
Also, if you look at the Dow Jones portfolio, many of the stocks are fairly conservative like Procter & Gamble, Caterpillar, Disney and IBM. They only have 2 high-flying tech stocks in Apple and MSFT. So if you loaded up your portfolio with all the high-flying tech stocks like Amazon, Google, Apple, and other tech stocks you might be able to beat in some years but you are also going to have some very bad years where the Dow would beat you soundly. Like in 2000 and 2008 the Dow being more conservative might not have such a terrible year but your high-flyers are going to take a beating.
If he basically bets vs. the market, then he has underperformed.
I have SPDN, QID, and PSQ as my bets against the maket (sadly did not buy them until mid year).
SPDN is up 18.70%, QID is up 66.17% (about doubles the return of the NASDAQ in the opposite direction), and PSQ up 35.63%. S+P 500 is down just under 20%
Apples and oranges. You bought the wrong investment to begin with, and own the correct one now. However, I told you would be better off holding HSGFX and selling Bitcoin, Tesla. That holds for 2023 as well, imho.
No.
Comparing etfs that bet against the market with major indices is what you have to do.
I have had DOWN years...just not down years that were worse than when the Dow had a down year...other than one other time, and now in 2022, that will happen again.
So, if 2023 is a down year for stocks, even if MY stocks go down, I could still beat the Dow.
Flagpole's ridiculous claim was that he had beaten the market 32 out of 33 years - and 2022 would have made it 32 out of 34 years - not that he was up for the year.
I think he said he beat the DJI Index in particular, which makes the feat slightly more attainable.
CORRECT! Not only slightly more attainable, but completely attainable...because I have done so.
Losing big time to the Dow this year though. Right now the Dow is down about 8% on the year.
I have had DOWN years...just not down years that were worse than when the Dow had a down year...other than one other time, and now in 2022, that will happen again.
So, if 2023 is a down year for stocks, even if MY stocks go down, I could still beat the Dow.
Read, ponder, comprehend.
You are the one that misunderstands. Virtually zero professional money managers are benchmarked to the Dow.