10 year down to 3.4%. that's a big move down. remarkable. Just a month ago it was 4.2%!!!!
hard to see how the fed keeps jacking up the short term rates when the 10 year is telling them not to worry about inflation and the inflation nowcast is collapsing.
the 2s 10s inversion is approaching the absurd: 80+ bps. that's just stupid. Fed needs to recognize what prices are telling it.
10 year down to 3.4%. that's a big move down. remarkable. Just a month ago it was 4.2%!!!!
hard to see how the fed keeps jacking up the short term rates when the 10 year is telling them not to worry about inflation and the inflation nowcast is collapsing.
the 2s 10s inversion is approaching the absurd: 80+ bps. that's just stupid. Fed needs to recognize what prices are telling it.
you could draw an easy picture that the economy is about to fall into a ditch
1/ oil prices falling fast
2/ 10 year yield falling fast
3/ Leading econ indicators negative
but GDP is strong right now. Not sure I want to bet on a quick stop in the economy.
But on the other hand GDP has shown some wild swings during and after covid, so maybe wild swings are what we got.
Can the market still expect a Santa Claus rally? With CNBC's Scott Wapner and the 'Halftime Report' investment committee, Karen Firestone, Jason Snipe, Joe T...
A nearly perfect call from Dennis Gartman, made on January 3, 2022. Full kudos to him.
(Bloomberg) -- Stocks could face a “slow, laborious” decline in 2022 as a result of a more hawkish Federal Reserve that may raise interest rates four times, according to Dennis Gartman. The University of Akron Endowment Chairman said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio Monday that stocks could trade 10% to 15% lower this year. While Gartman has long been calling for a bear market, he said the catalyst for the decline could be the central bank raising interest rates amid a continued rise in inflation. While most of Wall Street is forecasting that the Federal Reserve will raise rates three times in 2022, Gartman expects a more aggressive approach in part because of newly appointed members who tilt hawkish. He also said one hike could be as much as 50 basis points and the benchmark overnight rate could jump at least 100 basis points from current levels by the end of the year. “The advent of a bear market will come when the Fed begins to tighten monetary policy, and that will be later this year. No question,” said Gartman, who formerly published the influential “The Gartman Letter.” The S&P 500 gained 27% in 2021 and surpassed nearly all of even the most bullish analyst estimates. Gartman admitted he’s been wrong for the past six months to call for a bear market. As the chairman of the University of Akron endowment, he reduced equity exposure by 10% to assure the foundation has ample spending money, but he said the risk in this strategy is that they miss out on further gains. “I think it’ll be a slow, laborious decline in prices, not a crash of any sort of any substance,” said Gartman. “So it’s a matter of being less involved in the market. Going to the sidelines in a quiet and reasonable manner I think is the proper way to trade for the next year or two.”
10 year down to 3.4%. that's a big move down. remarkable. Just a month ago it was 4.2%!!!!
hard to see how the fed keeps jacking up the short term rates when the 10 year is telling them not to worry about inflation and the inflation nowcast is collapsing.
the 2s 10s inversion is approaching the absurd: 80+ bps. that's just stupid. Fed needs to recognize what prices are telling it.
you could draw an easy picture that the economy is about to fall into a ditch
1/ oil prices falling fast
2/ 10 year yield falling fast
3/ Leading econ indicators negative
but GDP is strong right now. Not sure I want to bet on a quick stop in the economy.
But on the other hand GDP has shown some wild swings during and after covid, so maybe wild swings are what we got.
you could draw an easy picture that the economy is about to fall into a ditch
1/ oil prices falling fast
2/ 10 year yield falling fast
3/ Leading econ indicators negative
but GDP is strong right now. Not sure I want to bet on a quick stop in the economy.
But on the other hand GDP has shown some wild swings during and after covid, so maybe wild swings are what we got.
A conundrum.
Seen the price of Xmas Trees?
Min $100.
Nearly twice what we paid in 2021
Last year we paid $84 for the 5-6 foot size. You can cut your own for a $5 tree tag, but it is not as easy as it sounds this time of year. We will be going out Saturday to select ours from a retail lot.
One thing that is noticeable, fewer houses with Christmas lights this year.
Last year we paid $84 for the 5-6 foot size. You can cut your own for a $5 tree tag, but it is not as easy as it sounds this time of year. We will be going out Saturday to select ours from a retail lot.
One thing that is noticeable, fewer houses with Christmas lights this year.
@ 1/2 the houses in our neighborhood did not hand out candy at Halloween this years.
Last year we paid $84 for the 5-6 foot size. You can cut your own for a $5 tree tag, but it is not as easy as it sounds this time of year. We will be going out Saturday to select ours from a retail lot.
One thing that is noticeable, fewer houses with Christmas lights this year.
@ 1/2 the houses in our neighborhood did not hand out candy at Halloween this years.
Typically that number is maybe 10%
People squeezed a lot more than reported. Inflation may moderate, but with cost of money and labor significantly higher, it is now higher for longer.
China opens up, 500 million people get covid, each of them becomes a little private lab for mutant covid viruses, and voila a new mutant that comes back around the world and nails us to the wall again.
China's refusal to use western mRNA vaccines is basically a crime against humanity.
Bad call from JP Morgan, from JUly 2022. SP500 is now at 3963
Looking at the S&P 500 right now, you might be convinced the stock market is destined for doom in 2022. The benchmark index rose nearly 27% last year. This year, it’s already down 20%. Plenty of stocks are deep into correction territory. Yet JPMorgan’s global head of equity macro research, Dubravko Lakos, sees a major rebound on the horizon. “People are basically positioned for a recession. Our base case is that this is not going to be a recession in the next 12 months,” Lakos told CNBC last month. “And we think from that angle the portfolios are wrong footed.” Lakos reiterated a year-end price target of 4,900 for the S&P 500. Since the index sits at 3,820 today, his target implies a potential upside of around 28%.
Most bullish view is offered by the research house BMO, which offers the S&P 500 a target price of 5,300. Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees the key U.S. index in the range of 5,100-5,300. Morgan Stanley’s target price of 4,400 is the most pessimistic. Among 14 research houses, 9 houses’ target price crossed 5,000, marking a 6% rise from the current level.