I didn't click on the link but is he saying the Dow will be 21,000 and the NASDAQ 9,000 in the near future?
He is saying fair value, or a 10% long term return on the S&P 500 would require around 1,575. So probably a lot worse than the levels you quoted. Corporate margins only beginning to contract, $Trillions in Government and Fed stimulus lit up and burned.
I didn't click on the link but is he saying the Dow will be 21,000 and the NASDAQ 9,000 in the near future?
He is saying fair value, or a 10% long term return on the S&P 500 would require around 1,575. So probably a lot worse than the levels you quoted. Corporate margins only beginning to contract, $Trillions in Government and Fed stimulus lit up and burned.
Has he ever, and I mean EVER, predicted something positive for the market. Am really asking this seriously. Has Hussman EVER had a positive outlook for the market? I have yet to see anything approaching that. Please cite examples if you can.
He is saying fair value, or a 10% long term return on the S&P 500 would require around 1,575. So probably a lot worse than the levels you quoted. Corporate margins only beginning to contract, $Trillions in Government and Fed stimulus lit up and burned.
Has he ever, and I mean EVER, predicted something positive for the market. Am really asking this seriously. Has Hussman EVER had a positive outlook for the market? I have yet to see anything approaching that. Please cite examples if you can.
John, I don’t think anybody would believe me if I told them that back in the early 1990s I used to refer to you as one of my column’s “resident bulls…”
Has he ever, and I mean EVER, predicted something positive for the market. Am really asking this seriously. Has Hussman EVER had a positive outlook for the market? I have yet to see anything approaching that. Please cite examples if you can.
Add to that the $Trillions in tax cuts, handouts, and reckless fiscal behavior of the Government. Sorry Sally, that goes for both parties.
The craziest, and most ridiculous investments were the first to get hit. Viable, but overvalued companies priced with fake valuations will fall in-kind.
Add to that the $Trillions in tax cuts, handouts, and reckless fiscal behavior of the Government. Sorry Sally, that goes for both parties.
The craziest, and most ridiculous investments were the first to get hit. Viable, but overvalued companies priced with fake valuations will fall in-kind.
so many factors in deciding if monetary conditions are tight or loose or in what direction they are going. I think Gente could be helpful here. But my sense is that monetary conditions are far tighter than you represent.
And now with a split congress fiscal spending will drop too.
Add to that the $Trillions in tax cuts, handouts, and reckless fiscal behavior of the Government. Sorry Sally, that goes for both parties.
The craziest, and most ridiculous investments were the first to get hit. Viable, but overvalued companies priced with fake valuations will fall in-kind.
so many factors in deciding if monetary conditions are tight or loose or in what direction they are going. I think Gente could be helpful here. But my sense is that monetary conditions are far tighter than you represent.
And now with a split congress fiscal spending will drop too.
Tight or loose compared to what? A microcosm in time. None of that relates to the actual problem of creating an environment where assets become mis-priced for a decade, and then still expecting no consequences for foolish behavior.
china stocks are up..as are emerging markets in general. And oil recovered its losses.
I suppose the market is saying that the china protests will fade away... but the chinese government will have to lighten covid restrictions and maybe **shocker** even bring in western mRNA vaccines. Lightening restrictions is good for business and therefore stocks.
so many factors in deciding if monetary conditions are tight or loose or in what direction they are going. I think Gente could be helpful here. But my sense is that monetary conditions are far tighter than you represent.
And now with a split congress fiscal spending will drop too.
Tight or loose compared to what? A microcosm in time. None of that relates to the actual problem of creating an environment where assets become mis-priced for a decade, and then still expecting no consequences for foolish behavior.
the average PE over the last 25 years is 17. (and we are now at 17)
I just don't see that as crazeballs expensive. Do you?
You did say 10 years and not 25....but eyeballing PEs over the last 10 years seems to show about the same 17.
The J.P. Morgan Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic histories, trends and statistics through clear charts and graphs.
china stocks are up..as are emerging markets in general. And oil recovered its losses.
I suppose the market is saying that the china protests will fade away... but the chinese government will have to lighten covid restrictions and maybe **shocker** even bring in western mRNA vaccines. Lightening restrictions is good for business and therefore stocks.
Interesting times continue. Love this business.
FXI trading at levels last seen in 2008. Says it all.
Tight or loose compared to what? A microcosm in time. None of that relates to the actual problem of creating an environment where assets become mis-priced for a decade, and then still expecting no consequences for foolish behavior.
the average PE over the last 25 years is 17. (and we are now at 17)
I just don't see that as crazeballs expensive. Do you?
You did say 10 years and not 25....but eyeballing PEs over the last 10 years seems to show about the same 17.
All backward looking, reflecting merely all the free money pumped into the system. It is gone, lit up with a match. Now the future. Labor costs and cost of money going up. And, the recession hasn’t even happened.
On JP Morgan, Dimon is one of the few that will ever outline the risks.
Tight or loose compared to what? A microcosm in time. None of that relates to the actual problem of creating an environment where assets become mis-priced for a decade, and then still expecting no consequences for foolish behavior.
the average PE over the last 25 years is 17. (and we are now at 17)
I just don't see that as crazeballs expensive. Do you?
You did say 10 years and not 25....but eyeballing PEs over the last 10 years seems to show about the same 17.
I will grant the bulls one point, if factors that influenced markets the last decade stay intact there will be no historic bear market. Then again, inflation would likely remain elevated, the stock market flat.
Tight or loose compared to what? A microcosm in time. None of that relates to the actual problem of creating an environment where assets become mis-priced for a decade, and then still expecting no consequences for foolish behavior.
the average PE over the last 25 years is 17. (and we are now at 17)
I just don't see that as crazeballs expensive. Do you?
You did say 10 years and not 25....but eyeballing PEs over the last 10 years seems to show about the same 17.
I would say that if current PE is at long term average PE, the market is overpriced all things considered. The recession will likely get worse in 2023, and interest rates are high and likely going a bit higher. Fair value would likely be a PE slightly below long term average right now. I have been surprised at the recent surge up to 4000. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 3600 again, but who knows.
I would say that if current PE is at long term average PE, the market is overpriced all things considered. The recession will likely get worse in 2023, and interest rates are high and likely going a bit higher. Fair value would likely be a PE slightly below long term average right now. I have been surprised at the recent surge up to 4000. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 3600 again, but who knows.
Here is the data posted previously. We are unquestionably considerably above the long term average PE.
I would say that if current PE is at long term average PE, the market is overpriced all things considered. The recession will likely get worse in 2023, and interest rates are high and likely going a bit higher. Fair value would likely be a PE slightly below long term average right now. I have been surprised at the recent surge up to 4000. Wouldn't be surprised if we see 3600 again, but who knows.
Here is the data posted previously. We are unquestionably considerably above the long term average PE.
but eyeballing your chart, PEs are still at around the 25 year median, same as the JPM chart.
As for longer than 25 years...
I think it's nonsense to think PEs in 1925 or 1955 are somehow relevant to 2022. Accounting rules are different, companies are international, we have technology now, etc.
but eyeballing your chart, PEs are still at around the 25 year median, same as the JPM chart.
As for longer than 25 years...
I think it's nonsense to think PEs in 1925 or 1955 are somehow relevant to 2022. Accounting rules are different, companies are international, we have technology now, etc.
This. It's part of why understanding where we are is somewhat of an art and not an exact science. More people invest today than they did pre-internet. A lot is different now compared to 40+ years ago. When I try to gauge things about modern times, I only go back to about 1980 and treat anything before then as something to be aware of but not really include too seriously as predictions of anything going on today, at least in terms of ratios etc.
but eyeballing your chart, PEs are still at around the 25 year median, same as the JPM chart.
As for longer than 25 years...
I think it's nonsense to think PEs in 1925 or 1955 are somehow relevant to 2022. Accounting rules are different, companies are international, we have technology now, etc.
I would agree that may make sense considering it corresponds to extreme monetary policy. That opens the debate to both justification, and sustainability, or simply whether valuations matter at all. Certainly that convinced investors that SPACs, crypto, NFTs, ARKK stocks, or a handful of $Trillion market cap were worth “investing” in.