False, because valuations matter. You foolish believe they don’t because the Fed has made you an easy money addict. That is why you are down 20-30% on the year.
1) No, not false. True. You are a permabear.
2) As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.
3) I have never said that valuations don't matter.
4) Nothing I have done with regard to the market has been foolish. I have become a wealthy man based on good, not great income because of the investing I have done.
After this year, Flagpole will have lost to the market for the second time in 34 years ( I kind of forget how many years we keep talking about). To put it another way, he has beaten the market 32 of 34 years. The probability of that is about 1 in 6 billion. Flagpole is, quite simply, the greatest investor EVER. We are blessed to have him mingling with us riff raff.
I think you should have Flagpole’s post removed as factually incorrect.
Where is the Fact Checker Troll when you need him?
However, Flagpole is Let’s Run’s “Warren Buffet” ( in this case pronounced Warren Boo-Fay).
Igy, here are my 12/31/22 market closings. I expect them to be pretty much spot on.
Dow - 36,330
S & P - 4,385
NASDAQ - 11,777
Regards and Happy Thanksgiving!
Sally,
I could see that, for technical reasons. As agip noted economy performing reasonably well. I expect that to wane into 2023.
Wife wants the outdoor windows cleaned. A warmer day for us today, so a couple hours work. I usually hang the Christmas lights while wife is cooking Thanksgiving dinner. Kids will be over and “long” run, and all good.
Enjoy Thanksgiving to you and the rest of the DGTD crowd.
I'm going to start my year-end reviews now... I mean why not. I save these things through the year and enjoy reviewing them to see what people were saying. A side benefit is to see the extreme bearishness at market bottoms and try to remember that next time the market falls 20%, and not panic.
Here's the first: Ed Yardeni making a technically incorrect prediction in June, but he only missed it a little by October's small new low. You don't have to catch the absolute bottom - the goal is to get within a few percent of it.
Kudos to Ed.
July 25:
Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1 Ed Yardeni believes the worst has passed for this bear market and that the S&P’s plunge last month to a 3,666.77 low likely marked the trough of the 2022 equity rout.
2) As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.
3) I have never said that valuations don't matter.
4) Nothing I have done with regard to the market has been foolish. I have become a wealthy man based on good, not great income because of the investing I have done.
After this year, Flagpole will have lost to the market for the second time in 34 years ( I kind of forget how many years we keep talking about). To put it another way, he has beaten the market 32 of 34 years. The probability of that is about 1 in 6 billion. Flagpole is, quite simply, the greatest investor EVER. We are blessed to have him mingling with us riff raff.
Oddly enough, I got tested, and the test results just came in today. I am better than you and everyone else in every way.
I was damn sure it was true, but the test confirmed it. Find your thing.
Here in July 2022 Roubini said a deep recession and credit crisis in the US is inevitable. Not sure what his time frame was - story is behind a paywall. But even as he spoke we were beginning a 3Q of rapid 3% GDP growth, and now we are in a 4Q of perhaps even more rapid GDP growth. And with next to no signs of problems with credit. So far, a giant miss from this permabear.
Maybe next year, Nouriel. Maybe next year. As always.
ByIsabelle Lee July 25, 2022 at 11:39 AM EDT Share this article Follow the authors @isabelletanlee + Get alerts forIsabelle Lee Economist Nouriel Roubini said the US is facing a deep recession as interest rates rise and the economy is burdened by high debt loads, calling those expecting a shallow downturn “delusional.” “There are many reasons why we are going to have a severe recession and a severe debt and financial crisis,” the chairman and chief executive officer of Roubini Macro Associates said on Bloomberg
2s 10s inversion now a massive 75 bps, the most since 1981. Largest of this cycle and expanding sharply and regularly.
that's kind of shocking.
Any of these could be true:
Fed is fighting inflation way too hard and the short term fed funds rate should be far lower
1H23 will have a very sharp drop in GDP growth so long term rates are correct to be low and dropping.
the bond market is just all off and not working well. It completely didn't see the 2022 inflation coming, so this option is actually not out of bounds.
//
the scary part is that recessions generally start *after* the curve inversion heals itself. So you think the problem is over...but it's just beginning.
but who knows...the post-pandemic period has had a ton of 'firsts.' Maybe it's different this time because of the pandemic and past results won't repeat.
2s 10s inversion now a massive 75 bps, the most since 1981. Largest of this cycle and expanding sharply and regularly.
that's kind of shocking.
Any of these could be true:
Fed is fighting inflation way too hard and the short term fed funds rate should be far lower
1H23 will have a very sharp drop in GDP growth so long term rates are correct to be low and dropping.
the bond market is just all off and not working well. It completely didn't see the 2022 inflation coming, so this option is actually not out of bounds.
//
the scary part is that recessions generally start *after* the curve inversion heals itself. So you think the problem is over...but it's just beginning.
but who knows...the post-pandemic period has had a ton of 'firsts.' Maybe it's different this time because of the pandemic and past results won't repeat.
followup thought...if we are about to hit a recession in 1h2023, corp bond spreads would have to see at least SOME of that coming. I mean really. But nah. Nothing. Bond spreads are low and falling. Corporate america is fine.
Which probably means my refusal to buy short term junk was a mistake.
At some point we will have to confront and accept that US stocks have been underperforming their peers. I suspect virtually no American investors are overweight non-US stocks but we all should have been over the past year.
I might have to make a portfolio shift to finally start buying non-US stocks. Sure feels wrong, but that's often when the best trades are made.
The risk is that all we are talking about here is US tech...and that sector is volatile. If it rebounds, so will the US market and again put the US on top.
But no one is talking about this. Which makes it intriguing. Sure would be sweet to do a smooth baton handoff from US stocks' strong last decade to non-US stocks should they outperform for the next decade. Imagine making money while US stocks don't. Huge.
Overseas dividends are higher and valuations are lower.
At some point we will have to confront and accept that US stocks have been underperforming their peers. I suspect virtually no American investors are overweight non-US stocks but we all should have been over the past year.
I feel like maybe I suggested people look into TSX 60 right around the start of the Ukraine war…?
TSLA will hit 2,000 by 12/31/22 - mark it on your calendars.
SARK will hit $60 by 12/31/22 - mark it on your calendars. 😉
Bet Resolution!
This one is from Jan 3, 2022 with the market at near a peak.
Igy wins, Sally loses.
1/3/22 Tesla was at 399. It looks like that day was one of the highest closing prices that stock ever had. Top ticked it. TSLA fell to 166 and is now at 182.
Igy was correct that SARK would hit 60. In fact it hit 80 and is still at 60.
SARK will hit $60 by 12/31/22 - mark it on your calendars. 😉
Bet Resolution!
This one is from Jan 3, 2022 with the market at near a peak.
Igy wins, Sally loses.
1/3/22 Tesla was at 399. It looks like that day was one of the highest closing prices that stock ever had. Top ticked it. TSLA fell to 166 and is now at 182.
Igy was correct that SARK would hit 60. In fact it hit 80 and is still at 60.
This one is from Jan 3, 2022 with the market at near a peak.
Igy wins, Sally loses.
1/3/22 Tesla was at 399. It looks like that day was one of the highest closing prices that stock ever had. Top ticked it. TSLA fell to 166 and is now at 182.
Igy was correct that SARK would hit 60. In fact it hit 80 and is still at 60.
12/31/22
I don't know a lot about stocks, but I do know that Tesla will not go from 182 to 2000 in a month.
