You’re on. My prediction Dow 23,000 by November 23. 😹
bet resolution! This bet was placed on June 21,2022 with the Dow screaming downwards at around 30,500. We're now at 33,700.
Sally takes the win pretty easily over Igy. Good call Sallster.
Although we did get down to Dow 28,725 after the debt was placed so Igy had some short term directional accuracy.
Yes, good job Sally. We also have a $10 bet on the NASDAQ, forget what it was. Year end, more directional. I would assume Dow buoyed more by value names, for now.
The population of the world is 8 billion. Corporate America and politicians encourage an economic model based on consumer growth. Pretty clear we are on a path of scarce resources and a battle for what remains. I find the solar, wind, and EVs farts in the wind.
From the Union of Concerned Scientists:
"A fundamental shift in the way we generate electricity is now underway in the United States. Renewable energy is on the rise, while overreliance on coal is on the decline:
* Wind energy provided 31 percent of new U.S. electricity generating capacity from 2009-2013. * Solar accounted for an average of 16 percent of new electricity generating capacity installed annually in the U.S. from 2010-2013, and nearly 30 percent in 2013 alone. * Nine states produced more than 10 percent of their electricity from wind energy alone at the end of 2013, with wind generating over 15 percent of power in six states, and more than 25 percent in two states."
In terms on how big an impact these energy sources may have:
"Expert analysis also shows that individual states can achieve high levels of renewable energy reliably For example: * California: A 2014 study concluded that “it is technically feasible to integrate 40 to 50 percent renewables” in California by 2030, with technical input from CAISO. * Michigan: Recent studies by the Michigan Public Service Commission and UCS found Michigan can achieve or exceed 30 percent renewable energy by 2030. * Minnesota: Analyses by UCS and the Minnesota Department of Commerce, the latter in partnership with MISO, show the Minnesota can do 40 percent by 2030. * Texas: A 2008 ERCOT study found that operational issues posed by 23 percent wind capacity in Texas “can be addressed by existing technology and operational attention, without requiring any radical alteration of operations.”"
And these figures were from 2015, so I might expect that projections are even better today with advances in technology
The issue wind and solar run into is when Biden starts driving up the cost of natural gas, because both of those technologies are reliant upon natural gas turbines to produce "cheap" reliable power. Without natural gas turbines, neither of those is viable as a standalone resource. Long term battery storage is about 30 times more expensive than gas turbines to produce the same effect.
bet resolution! This bet was placed on June 21,2022 with the Dow screaming downwards at around 30,500. We're now at 33,700.
Sally takes the win pretty easily over Igy. Good call Sallster.
Although we did get down to Dow 28,725 after the debt was placed so Igy had some short term directional accuracy.
Yes, good job Sally. We also have a $10 bet on the NASDAQ, forget what it was. Year end, more directional. I would assume Dow buoyed more by value names, for now.
Thanks Igy and Agip, and thanks especially Agip for keeping up on it. I don't remember what our NASDAQ bet was as well but I just remember you were extreme on the downside and I was extreme on the upside.
Yes, good job Sally. We also have a $10 bet on the NASDAQ, forget what it was. Year end, more directional. I would assume Dow buoyed more by value names, for now.
Thanks Igy and Agip, and thanks especially Agip for keeping up on it. I don't remember what our NASDAQ bet was as well but I just remember you were extreme on the downside and I was extreme on the upside.
It would be funny if it ends up in the middle. No winner. :-)
Thanks Igy and Agip, and thanks especially Agip for keeping up on it. I don't remember what our NASDAQ bet was as well but I just remember you were extreme on the downside and I was extreme on the upside.
It would be funny if it ends up in the middle. No winner. :-)
Since neither of us remember the bet we can call it a draw or say we both win. LOL.
I wonder how “renewables” are working in Buffalo today?
In Buffalo they are probably working fine, as most renewable power in that part of the country is hydro. Hydro is an excellent resource, in spite of what Democrats and the Sierra Club try to tell you but is pretty much maxed out in New York. Rooftop solar would not be a great resource up there anyhow due to the Northern latitude, the number of cloudy days and quite honestly, the amount of rain and snow will likely leave one with a leaky roof in short order.
2022 has been an interesting year for the markets. On Jan. 3 2022, the first trading day, the Dow and S & P set all time closing records. Apple became the first company with a $3 trillion market cap (and has since lost $700 billion of that) and Telsa opened the year at $399 and is now at $167. If we only knew what the markets will close at on 12/31/23.
I wonder how “renewables” are working in Buffalo today?
In Buffalo they are probably working fine, as most renewable power in that part of the country is hydro. Hydro is an excellent resource, in spite of what Democrats and the Sierra Club try to tell you but is pretty much maxed out in New York. Rooftop solar would not be a great resource up there anyhow due to the Northern latitude, the number of cloudy days and quite honestly, the amount of rain and snow will likely leave one with a leaky roof in short order.
I might consider rooftop solar if I was younger. It would never payoff at my age. Problems like roof leak, hail damage, or equipment failure are never discussed. The neighbor had his solar panels washed a few months back. He also has a solar water heater. That gizmo is always in some maintenance issue.
Betting against an Igy prediction will be a winning position most of the time.
True, because he's a permabear, and the market doesn't behave like that.
False, because valuations matter. You foolish believe they don’t because the Fed has made you an easy money addict. That is why you are down 20-30% on the year.
True, because he's a permabear, and the market doesn't behave like that.
False, because valuations matter. You foolish believe they don’t because the Fed has made you an easy money addict. That is why you are down 20-30% on the year.
1) No, not false. True. You are a permabear.
2) As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.
3) I have never said that valuations don't matter.
4) Nothing I have done with regard to the market has been foolish. I have become a wealthy man based on good, not great income because of the investing I have done.
False, because valuations matter. You foolish believe they don’t because the Fed has made you an easy money addict. That is why you are down 20-30% on the year.
1) No, not false. True. You are a permabear.
2) As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.
3) I have never said that valuations don't matter.
4) Nothing I have done with regard to the market has been foolish. I have become a wealthy man based on good, not great income because of the investing I have done.
OK. I trust you realize that everything you said has been said others at the same stage of a bear market. I hope it works out for you.
“As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.”
It appears that your portfolio is slanted to growth and away from value. I would assume that this gap will be maintained in 2023, which will likely see you down two years in a row, consecutively. But hey even one of the best ever in investing history can have a couple of down years. :-)
False, because valuations matter. You foolish believe they don’t because the Fed has made you an easy money addict. That is why you are down 20-30% on the year.
1) No, not false. True. You are a permabear.
2) As of this morning, I am down 22.14% on the year to be accurate. I will lose to the Dow for just the second time in a calendar year (and lose by a LOT) since I started investing in 1989.
3) I have never said that valuations don't matter.
4) Nothing I have done with regard to the market has been foolish. I have become a wealthy man based on good, not great income because of the investing I have done.
Damn.
I am down a little over 5% for the year and I am p1ssed.
I had clawed back to being down less than 3% five weeks ago but it seems like I have lost money pretty much every day since.
