How will the Democrats make up for the loss of about $65 milllion in funding? Not to mention what those Dems who were invested in his company lost in the process.
You realize it wasn’t just Dems who were invested, right?
Oil falling fast, down to $78ish, just about the lowest of this cycle.
Weird stuff going on. GDP Now thinks we are growing at a very hot 4%. but the leading indicators show solid recession fears.
Sounds like a lot of companies bought up inventory in a panic during the supply chain problem era...that juiced the economy...but now they have the stuff so they won't be reording. In other words, 2023 growth was pulled forward into 2022, getting us this big growth, but it will stop quickly in Q1 2023.
“When market participants are inclined to speculate, the combination of eager buyers and reluctant sellers can drive the financial markets to valuations that make little sense from the standpoint of long-term returns. That’s particularly true when the speculation persists for a long period of time, as it did from 1921-1929, 1990-2000, and more than a decade since 2009 – reaching a striking crescendo at the beginning of this year. In these cases, the “benefits” of past speculation, and the “uselessness” of valuations become so obvious to investors that they become overconfident that the “new era” will continue forever. Then the Dow loses 89% of its value (1929-1932), the Nasdaq 100 loses 82% of its value (2000-2002) and we expect, the S&P 500 gets to a point (2022) where a loss of two-thirds would merely bring market valuations to their run-of-the-mill historical norms. Despite year-to-date market losses, a further decline of roughly 58% would still be required to reach ordinary valuation norms. That’s a loss of about 35%, from here, followed by yet another loss that wipes out 35% of what’s left. You know I’m not kidding.”
Right now I think my biggest mistake will be not loading up on short term junk bonds. It seems a brilliant setup. Yielding 8-9%, short term so no long term risk, economy strong so bond failures shouldn't happen much, only a little interest rate risk at this point...
downside is that the economy does slow down and companies can't refinance their debt at these high rates.
But corporate spreads are showing absolutely no stress on low quality debt right now.
But I always seem to lose on junk bonds....they take a little fall and I panic and sell at a loss.
but jeez...a large position in say SJNK...tempting....
This SJNK does seem enticing. That and the less risky ultra short bond fund. I am looking at FLRN in that regard. Probably going with both of these.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 94% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 69% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 71% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Right now I think my biggest mistake will be not loading up on short term junk bonds. It seems a brilliant setup. Yielding 8-9%, short term so no long term risk, economy strong so bond failures shouldn't happen much, only a little interest rate risk at this point...
downside is that the economy does slow down and companies can't refinance their debt at these high rates.
But corporate spreads are showing absolutely no stress on low quality debt right now.
But I always seem to lose on junk bonds....they take a little fall and I panic and sell at a loss.
but jeez...a large position in say SJNK...tempting....
This SJNK does seem enticing. That and the less risky ultra short bond fund. I am looking at FLRN in that regard. Probably going with both of these.
the risk is that the economy will hit a wall next year...a slower economy would slam junk bonds.
This SJNK does seem enticing. That and the less risky ultra short bond fund. I am looking at FLRN in that regard. Probably going with both of these.
the risk is that the economy will hit a wall next year...a slower economy would slam junk bonds.
Understood, and with that in mind, I am leaning towards the ultra short term bond fund. I'm not happy with the drop in share price of my Prefered stock ETF (PGX) that does pay handsome dividends, in the high 5% range, but has suffered a sufficient drop in NAV to probably more than offset it. Thx.
Short term bonds now up over a month...this is key...if short term bonds (esp treasuries) can hold their value then capital markets will be more stable and even build. We need a risk free rate and we haven't had one for a year or so.
And inflation keeps falling...the fed has PCE down to an estimated 4.55% run rate in Q4.
Just 3 words ... Hussman Strategic Growth fund. Just kidding!
HSGFX up 1+% today.
In regards to ESG investing, it is clearly a sales pitch. Companies that exploit Uyghurs lead the investment list. Investments in companies that will create future environmental problems like waste from discarded solar panels, EVs. Destruction of desert and other environs with wind and solar farms, while disregarding nuclear power.
I looked up what you might be refering to regarding the exploitation of Uyghurs, and linked to an informative article below, and it is chilling, I must admit.
But are you really saying that wind and solar farms are destroying desert environs? Seriously?! Come on.
And consider the alternative for a minute. Would you rather they produce that energy in mining and burning coal? Nuclear is an alternative, as you say, but not without significant risk, which we may be wisely avoiding, fwiw.
You can assess for yourself with a Google search. Blight on the land is enough for me.
Gee, and I guess we'll just turn our backs on the fact that some other forms of energy production are particularly impacting and harming the poor and minorities? How convenient.
From the EPA website:
"Burning fossil fuels at power plants creates emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), carbon dioxide (CO2), mercury (Hg), and other pollutants. NOX and SO2 emissions contribute to the formation of ground-level ozone and fine PM, which can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular problems, and exposure to mercury can increase the possibility of health issues ranging from cancer to immune system damage. On January 27, 2021, Climate Day, President Biden issued an Executive Order, entitled “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad”, that addresses climate change policy and environmental justice. The power sector has significantly reduced many of these pollutants over the past two decades, but important health and environmental concerns persist. Minority, low-income, and indigenous populations frequently bear a disproportionate burden of environmental harms and adverse health outcomes, including the development of heart or lung diseases, such as asthma and bronchitis, increased susceptibility to respiratory and cardiac symptoms, greater numbers of emergency room visits and hospital admissions, and premature deaths."