Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through November 14, 2022. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a YTD gain of 5.79%. London's FTSE 100 is in second with a fractional, almost nil gain of 0.01% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 is in third with a loss of 2.88%. Coming in last is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a loss of 24.69% YTD.
Actually, you don’t have to stand strong on a bet that goes against you and is a long shot anyway. Very successful investors admit when they are wrong and reverse themselves.
Time will tell.
I am pretty confident the market is headed for big trouble.
Not sure why you feel this to be a long shot.
Or why you think this has gone against me. Last few days I have been hit hard -- real hard, but I am still a few $ ahead on it
markets rise over time....any bet that markets will go down is a longshot by definition. Especially when we just had a 25% drop. Historically after a 25% fall, odds of the market falling much more are small. But sure markets did fall more in 2008 and 2002 after a 25% drop.
producer price index down to +0.2% m/m, much less than the 0.5% expected.
Market flying, up 1.8% in the preopen.
Inflation is coming to an end, boys.
What exactly do you mean when you say inflation is coming to an end? 3% versus the current 8.2%? 0%? Will the prices at Kroger start to come down?
Core PPI growth month over month was zero, as revealed today.
Most graphs of inflation measurements show downward directions. The Fed thinks we're at a roughly 5% rate of inflation after being at 8% a few months ago.
The direction is good. How far down will we go? I sure don't know. But historicaly speaking 3% inflation is fine and not a problem....we're not so far from that already.
Biden didn't do anything to CAUSE the inflation either. It is falling MAINLY because we are moving away from the event that caused it....moving away from the pandemic and then the outrageous amount of spending in 2021 that led to the inflation.
Hope that clears it up for you.
I disagree with your first sentence and you actually make my case in the following sentences. Biden reopened the economy and the pent up demand combined with supply shortages led to increased inflation. I’m not saying this was a bad thing, but Biden’s actions most definitely led to the inflation.
Seems like the layoffs are ramping up/becoming more widespread, AND more rate hikes to come, AND inflation is still high... I don't really understand the recent jump in the market... Seems like it's probably going to be some time before things are good again, like 12 months at least.
Also, fwiw, I am someone who is very frugal and typically lives well beneath my means, and even I have been much closer to living paycheck to paycheck than probably ever before in my life. That is partly due to some big random expenses (car trouble, etc), but it's also just because everything costs more. I don't even notice it a ton when I actually buy stuff, but when I do my finances at the end of the month, I have way less left over than I did a year or two ago. My job is very secure as long as I don't go off the rails or something, but these times have concerned me enough to stockpile a bit more cash than I normally would give myself a 6 month cushion instead of the usual 3... I have to think a huge portion of Americans are not really keeping up right now... No one who was living paycheck to paycheck a year ago could possibly be above water right now, and with rates only going up, this is painting a pretty bad picture for whenever the rent finally comes due, no more extensions...
All that being said, I still think we'll see the S&P500 above 5000 by sometime 2024, which would be ~25% up from here (including dividends). The market is still a good place to put money for long term investors.
Let me hip you to the facts, brother.
The stock market is forward-looking. Inflation is falling, and ALL indications are that it will continue to fall, even a lot between now and Spring 2023. Wall Street rejoices in this news which is why the markets are going up.
Why is inflation falling? Has NOTHING to do with anything Biden has done (not even his Inflation Reduction Act). Biden didn't do anything to CAUSE the inflation either. It is falling MAINLY because we are moving away from the event that caused it. The Fed has helped it along with the rate hikes, but its impact is minimum compared to just time passing...moving away from the pandemic and then the outrageous amount of spending in 2021 that led to the inflation.
Hope that clears it up for you.
The president may have nothing to do with the stock market but MTG is causing Hasbro stocks to fall.
Biden didn't do anything to CAUSE the inflation either. It is falling MAINLY because we are moving away from the event that caused it....moving away from the pandemic and then the outrageous amount of spending in 2021 that led to the inflation.
Hope that clears it up for you.
I disagree with your first sentence and you actually make my case in the following sentences. Biden reopened the economy and the pent up demand combined with supply shortages led to increased inflation. I’m not saying this was a bad thing, but Biden’s actions most definitely led to the inflation.
I think we have to agree that in retrospect one of the big stimulus bills was too much and contributed something to the inflation. Not the major factor (that was all the pent-up savings being spent at a time supply chains were messed up), but I do think the stimulus was a factor.
But on the other hand, getting 6% economic growth and skyrocketing tax collections made up for some of that. If we get away without a recession in 2023...maybe the inflation period won't be such a problem and the stimulus might flip to being more positive an effort.
I am pretty confident the market is headed for big trouble.
Not sure why you feel this to be a long shot.
Or why you think this has gone against me. Last few days I have been hit hard -- real hard, but I am still a few $ ahead on it
markets rise over time....any bet that markets will go down is a longshot by definition. Especially when we just had a 25% drop. Historically after a 25% fall, odds of the market falling much more are small. But sure markets did fall more in 2008 and 2002 after a 25% drop.
At the January 2022 high the market was at the highest valuation in 140 years. Driven in large part by Fed extreme monetary policy and reckless politician fiscal spending. It is not surprising that the most speculative investments continue to destroy capital as tge markets unwind. We are likely not even at the mid-point where this market bottoms. S&P 500 ~2,300 seems a best scenario target, or equivalent to the pandemic bottom, and beginning of most extreme bureaucratic economic meddling.
Igy on these zerohedge posts....no chance in heck am I putting a cookie from Zerohedge on my PC by visiting that website so if you want to make a point with them....probably best to cut and paste something from the article.
Igy on these zerohedge posts....no chance in heck am I putting a cookie from Zerohedge on my PC by visiting that website so if you want to make a point with them....probably best to cut and paste something from the article.
Igy on these zerohedge posts....no chance in heck am I putting a cookie from Zerohedge on my PC by visiting that website so if you want to make a point with them....probably best to cut and paste something from the article.
No, I won’t cater to that nonsense.
well then all you are doing is posting a link and I'm certainly not going to read it. Your choice of course.
Zerohedge is not a healthy place:
Wikipedia:
Over time, Zero Hedge expanded into non-financial political content,[c] including conspiracy theories and fringe rhetoric[3][28] advancing radical right,[15][29] alt-right,[30][31][32] and pro-Russia positions.[1][33][34][35] Zero Hedge's non-financial commentary has led to multiple site bans by global social media platforms, although its 2019 Facebook ban[36][37] and 2020 Twitter ban were later reversed.[15][38]
I am only speaking for myself, but I won't open up any links that the OP would not take the time to demonstrate in their post why it might be relevant and what their main point is. I am happy to engage in dialogue and discussion, but not in being led around with someone else's reading list.
debt service as a percent of disposable income is at near historical lows, although rising. rising off very low lows.
In other words, there is no debt problem in US households, but things have started to go in the wrong direction. This is probably because much of those savings from COVID non-spending has been depleted. Which is one good reason inflation is easing too.