I don't know. It seems as far as the interest rate trajectory, a lot is being written about it and the pace and top limit are now being thought to be not as severe as just was considered before the recent CPI number was released last week (for Oct.), and if we get just one more number to show slowing inflation, the belief is that the Fed will indeed start easing off. How long they stay at those rates seems like a big unknown, though, and everything the Fed says is that the rates will need to stay high for a while to be effective.
As for the lay-offs. how much can be made of that when the lay-offs are confined to the tech sector so far, and hiring is in good shape otherwise. So I am not so sure you can generalize from what is happening to the hypergrowth tech sector to what might happen outside there.
As for spending (consumer), underestimating the US propensity for retail spending at your own risk. Yeah, some signs of consumers running up a little more debt to keep it up, but so far spending still has been strong, though admittedly, the same dollar is buying less due to food, energy, and housing costs.
We may slip into recession, but that is not a foregone conclusion, at least not yet.