Let's roll the tape back to 2020. Trump could have easily used COVID to his advantage. Sure, he called it the Kung Flu virus, etc. and seemed to not be cut out for dealing with it. It was a global pandemic, and most Americans understood that. Nobody was expecting much from him, and yet he was supportive of project lightspeed and the US led in many ways in how it responded. There were many wins to boast about. Yet instead of using it all to his advantage going into election season, what did Trump do? He decided it was a great idea for him to lead the COVID Task Force communications to the public. He could read from prepared notes, and lean on his professional team to discuss the technical stuff... but no. Trump couldn't handle not being in the constant spotlight so much that he went up there every time and showed the country and world how much of an irresponsible idiot he was. He turned an easy opportunity into disastrous PR.
My point is Trump is awful at actually leading and making people feel safe. He is a loud mouth, hateful, ignorant, and dishonorable fool. His advantage is lying and spreading those lies so he can benefit. The more the public sees of him going into November the more it'll hurt him. He doesn't have any structure, any actual ideas about making things better, and is unable to persuade middle-ground folks. The more air time he gets the more people become sure they don't want him. He is effectively campaigning for Biden every time he opens his mouth. Those irretrievably lost tzees (and yes there are too many of them) are locked in anyway so they don't matter.
Now Biden has just started campaigning, so he should have some considerable upside. He hasn't spent the last 4 years boasting about how awesome he is and bashing his opponents.
No surprise the betting markets are giving Biden an edge. Just imagine how desperate trump is going to get as we approach November. He is already completely unhinged now. Those voters who aren't too crazy about Biden this time around - Trump is scaring them away. Those who voted for Nikki - many aren't going to hold their breath this time around.