Your comments on this thread largely consist of Igy this, Igy that. Readers are free to judge that any way they want. Personally, I think it is really weird.
what do you have to do in order to satisfy you? igy hasn't been 100% correct or even 80% correct in 2022...in this business being only correctish 60% of the time makes you legendary.
Igy got the direction of the market and he picked out a couple ways to make money while everyone else is losing. And he got the reasoning right. Sure he's been saying the same thing for years and years and it's only happened now...fine. Agreed. but fact is, he's done very well this year when few others have.
Agreed that his permabear position resonates this year. But there is no hard evidence that “he’s done very well this year.” It has been noted before that Igy makes buy/sell/short claims well after the fact while others are up front with their actions. Keep in mind his history of usually refusing to admit his mistakes. My guess is he’s in the red ytd. And even if he’s not, years of being wrong means he’s more like Hussman than Buffett over the long term.
If you say the market is going to tank each and every year for 20 years you don't get credit when the markets finally DO tank.
Agreed that his permabear position resonates this year. But there is no hard evidence that “he’s done very well this year.” It has been noted before that Igy makes buy/sell/short claims well after the fact while others are up front with their actions. Keep in mind his history of usually refusing to admit his mistakes. My guess is he’s in the red ytd. And even if he’s not, years of being wrong means he’s more like Hussman than Buffett over the long term.
If you say the market is going to tank each and every year for 20 years you don't get credit when the markets finally DO tank.
That is so inherently obvious, it seems sad it needs to be said. But apparently it does.
Agreed that his permabear position resonates this year. But there is no hard evidence that “he’s done very well this year.” It has been noted before that Igy makes buy/sell/short claims well after the fact while others are up front with their actions. Keep in mind his history of usually refusing to admit his mistakes. My guess is he’s in the red ytd. And even if he’s not, years of being wrong means he’s more like Hussman than Buffett over the long term.
If you say the market is going to tank each and every year for 20 years you don't get credit when the markets finally DO tank.
I can say Betty White will die every year since 2000 but when she finally does die, you certainly can't consider me a great predictor.
If you say the market is going to tank each and every year for 20 years you don't get credit when the markets finally DO tank.
I can say Betty White will die every year since 2000 but when she finally does die, you certainly can't consider me a great predictor.
I think agip criticism is fair. Sally and Seattle are digesting being on the wrong side of the market in 2022, and continuing to believe there is a savior. The obsessive troll has a hard one that only he can relieve.
The facts are $8 Trillion in Fed QE, corporate and individual tax cuts, and another $2+ Trillion in stimulus and handouts are unprecedented in financial market history. One is welcome to believe there is no payback, or rationalization to policy that created the biggest asset bubble ever. I don’t, and I have been clear on that. Good luck with believing differently. I am sure we will both have something to say on that topic.
Meanwhile announcement from Meta of layoffs of thousands and Apple of a reduction in iPhone shipments.
I can say Betty White will die every year since 2000 but when she finally does die, you certainly can't consider me a great predictor.
I think agip criticism is fair. Sally and Seattle are digesting being on the wrong side of the market in 2022, and continuing to believe there is a savior. The obsessive troll has a hard one that only he can relieve.
The facts are $8 Trillion in Fed QE, corporate and individual tax cuts, and another $2+ Trillion in stimulus and handouts are unprecedented in financial market history. One is welcome to believe therent is no payback, or rationalization to policy that created the biggest asset bubble ever. I don’t, and I have been clear on that. Good luck with believing differently. I am sure we will both have something to say on that topic.
Meanwhile announcement from Meta of layoffs of thousands and Apple of a reduction in iPhone shipments.
:-)
Whatever manipulations of the market the government may be engaging (according to you) in, are you not being negligent as an investment advisor to not capitalize on those manipulations?
If you say the market is going to tank each and every year for 20 years you don't get credit when the markets finally DO tank.
That is so inherently obvious, it seems sad it needs to be said. But apparently it does.
not disagreeing, but hey it is what it is. Igy has been describing the economy in ways we all sort of laughed off and well here we are - the things he described as problems are indeed biting us in our tushies.
A broken clock is right twice a day. But predicting what will break in a clock is much harder. Igy did that.
And I'd add that Igy was long oil and hussman when those were completely off the screen, eyes rolled etc. Then those made a ton of money - esp oil. And of course Igy nicely picked out a couple of bear market rallies to be short term long on, and says he eliminated some shorts at timely points.
I know what it's like to be a bear - I worked for one even grizzlier than Igy. For a bear to be willing to reduce short exposure at correct moments during a bear market, when the longs are finally getting their comeuppance and he is making money while everyone else is losing money....is quite a feat, deserving of kudos.
That is so inherently obvious, it seems sad it needs to be said. But apparently it does.
not disagreeing, but hey it is what it is. Igy has been describing the economy in ways we all sort of laughed off and well here we are - the things he described as problems are indeed biting us in our tushies.
A broken clock is right twice a day. But predicting what will break in a clock is much harder. Igy did that.
And I'd add that Igy was long oil and hussman when those were completely off the screen, eyes rolled etc. Then those made a ton of money - esp oil. And of course Igy nicely picked out a couple of bear market rallies to be short term long on, and says he eliminated some shorts at timely points.
I know what it's like to be a bear - I worked for one even grizzlier than Igy. For a bear to be willing to reduce short exposure at correct moments during a bear market, when the longs are finally getting their comeuppance and he is making money while everyone else is losing money....is quite a feat, deserving of kudos.
Okay, i would go along with this except I am not so convinced on his timing to cover on short calls, but whatever.
My larger point is simply this - he has been calling for a correction for as long as any of us can remember. No argument that we are in exactly that - a correction. But the crux of the matter is, what is the depth of that correction? Is it one that would justify a negative sentiment going back say 5 or 6 years? Let's say we drop another 30% from here, and if that were the case, I would have to give some credence to his projections. His timing could be better, but the overall impact would be in line with the duration of the market that he feels was overextended and overpriced.
But, on the other hand, if we bottom within 10% or less of where we are now, and claw back a little of the lost ground, I would definitely say his forecasts were misguided overall. Emphasis on "overall".
So, in my mind, the jury is still out. But at this point, I feel a negative market sentiment going back 6 years was still a tremendously unfortunate missed opportunity, even given the current market giving back some of those gains.
I think agip criticism is fair. Sally and Seattle are digesting being on the wrong side of the market in 2022, and continuing to believe there is a savior. The obsessive troll has a hard one that only he can relieve.
The facts are $8 Trillion in Fed QE, corporate and individual tax cuts, and another $2+ Trillion in stimulus and handouts are unprecedented in financial market history. One is welcome to believe therent is no payback, or rationalization to policy that created the biggest asset bubble ever. I don’t, and I have been clear on that. Good luck with believing differently. I am sure we will both have something to say on that topic.
Meanwhile announcement from Meta of layoffs of thousands and Apple of a reduction in iPhone shipments.
:-)
Whatever manipulations of the market the government may be engaging (according to you) in, are you not being negligent as an investment advisor to not capitalize on those manipulations?
I am not an investment advisor. You are Mr. Index fund, relying on 100 year market return history to project a future, that for you is not close to that long. Meanwhile you ignore the same data period, using market valuations that are far more correlated to actual returns. That information says you will be spinning your wheel for the next decade or more. There’s your trouble.
not disagreeing, but hey it is what it is. Igy has been describing the economy in ways we all sort of laughed off and well here we are - the things he described as problems are indeed biting us in our tushies.
A broken clock is right twice a day. But predicting what will break in a clock is much harder. Igy did that.
And I'd add that Igy was long oil and hussman when those were completely off the screen, eyes rolled etc. Then those made a ton of money - esp oil. And of course Igy nicely picked out a couple of bear market rallies to be short term long on, and says he eliminated some shorts at timely points.
I know what it's like to be a bear - I worked for one even grizzlier than Igy. For a bear to be willing to reduce short exposure at correct moments during a bear market, when the longs are finally getting their comeuppance and he is making money while everyone else is losing money....is quite a feat, deserving of kudos.
Okay, i would go along with this except I am not so convinced on his timing to cover on short calls, but whatever.
My larger point is simply this - he has been calling for a correction for as long as any of us can remember. No argument that we are in exactly that - a correction. But the crux of the matter is, what is the depth of that correction? Is it one that would justify a negative sentiment going back say 5 or 6 years? Let's say we drop another 30% from here, and if that were the case, I would have to give some credence to his projections. His timing could be better, but the overall impact would be in line with the duration of the market that he feels was overextended and overpriced.
But, on the other hand, if we bottom within 10% or less of where we are now, and claw back a little of the lost ground, I would definitely say his forecasts were misguided overall. Emphasis on "overall".
So, in my mind, the jury is still out. But at this point, I feel a negative market sentiment going back 6 years was still a tremendously unfortunate missed opportunity, even given the current market giving back some of those gains.
People have different views on life and investing. A good portion of my working life I was a college track coach with a family and living on one income. As a financial advisor I saw the mistake of not paying attention to valuation. I don’t consider that being a bear, just recognizing value. Granted that has been how I live, so a personality trait, be that right or wrong. Most advisors attract clients of similar personality or beliefs. Same is true of recruiting in coaching. The biggest mistake one can make in both careers is believing in concepts that will not deliver results of the long term. Short cuts. It is amazing how much one can improve as a distance runner by training more. Saving and attention to valuation can deliver the same advantage. That is my story, and I am sticking to it.
@johnauthers used this chart in his @opinion piece earlier this week. The US 10yr detrended Bond/Equity Yield Ratio is at levels seen in 2000, 1981, 1968, 1955 and 1929. Peak to trough losses seen over the subsequent 5 years were -25%/-75%. This is no time to be bullish! pic.twitter.com/0sdBv99hxR
Meanwhile you ignore the same data period, using market valuations that are far more correlated to actual returns.
Your infatuation with valuations is the primary reason your investments have suffered relative to many of us. We recently enjoyed a decade long bull market during which valuations were historically high. Is that really the correlation you wish to tout? I’m not saying valuations don’t matter, just that they are only one part of the puzzle. Your desire to be a one trick pony has been detrimental to your financial health. You made your bed, now you have to sleep in it.
Meanwhile you ignore the same data period, using market valuations that are far more correlated to actual returns.
Your infatuation with valuations is the primary reason your investments have suffered relative to many of us. We recently enjoyed a decade long bull market during which valuations were historically high. Is that really the correlation you wish to tout? I’m not saying valuations don’t matter, just that they are only one part of the puzzle. Your desire to be a one trick pony has been detrimental to your financial health. You made your bed, now you have to sleep in it.
Don't look now but the US has underperformed overseas over a 3m span.
Not statistically meaningful yet, but when the pendulum does swing toward non-US stocks there will be giant alpha-generating possibilities. Almost no one is positioned for that so it will be a mover. Cheap stocks elsewhere.
Imagine a world where value stocks win and emerging markets and Europe are where you go to make money. Could happen. Sounds so strange after the past 14 years.
Don't look now but the US has underperformed overseas over a 3m span.
Not statistically meaningful yet, but when the pendulum does swing toward non-US stocks there will be giant alpha-generating possibilities. Almost no one is positioned for that so it will be a mover. Cheap stocks elsewhere.
Imagine a world where value stocks win and emerging markets and Europe are where you go to make money. Could happen. Sounds so strange after the past 14 years.
3 months
USA -8.66%
Non-US developed -7.55%
Emerging -8.1%
EM debt closed end funds still look attractive. The dollar will drop and funding costs will stabilize. At the moment, I am up 0.41% on EMD and down -7.99% on FAX. I continue to trade around positions, and reinvesting dividends.