2.6%. And it’s a smoke in mirrors number because we can’t draw down the SPR by 200 million barrels every quarter to make inflation look artificially low. The use of the SPR as a political ploy is an abomination.
Presidents have been selling the SPR for years. Biden is not doing anything new.
2.6%. And it’s a smoke in mirrors number because we can’t draw down the SPR by 200 million barrels every quarter to make inflation look artificially low. The use of the SPR as a political ploy is an abomination.
Presidents have been selling the SPR for years. Biden is not doing anything new.
trying to defund Putin by lowering oil prices is a valid use of the SPR in proxy wartime. If an R did it you all would consider it next-level genius.
Anyway, solid GDP number today - not too hot, not too cold.
Big question is what GDP Now thinks 4Q will be. Most economists seem to think the economy will hit a slower patch over the next month or two.
Other big question is what the PCE inflation number is tomorrow...that one could move markets mightily and end this rally in a millisecond.
Except he's not doing it to defund Putin. He's doing it to make the economy look artificially "strong as hell" going into the midterms. There is a reason he did the release when he did (and didn't do things like reverse his executive orders hampering oil and gas production, which would have provided meaningful, longer-term relief from energy inflation). It would be like someone whose checking account has been steadily draining each month because their expenses have been exceeding their income suddenly boosting their balance by transferring money from savings. Yes, it makes their checking balance look better, but it hasn't solved the long-term problem that their expenses are higher than their income. All it did was decrease their savings.
obviously there can be two benefits - that's how democracy works. Politicians do something that, we hope, helps the country and in return he gets support, votes and love.
In this case, defunding russia and lowering inflation are two benefits. We got both. Most people should be happy to get both. Not you, obviously. You are sad about both?
And stop already with the 'biden is killing the fossil fuels industry.' It's not what's happening here and you know that. it's cheap theater. But I don't want this thread to be too political so if you want the last word you can have it.
Almost none. The drawdowns that took place under Trump were mostly due to bills passed prior to Trump assuming office [Section 404 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 authorized the sale of $2 billion in crude from 2017-2020 and Section 5010 of the 21st Century Cares Act (passed in 2016 with bipartisan support) authorized the sale of 25 million barrels]. There was an exchange after Hurricane Harvey that provided 5.2 million barrels to address a temporary supply disruption that was re-filled with interest by 2018. The only drawdowns authorized during the Trump Administration were 2, 5-million-barrel draw downs in 2020 and 2021 from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 (a bipartisan spending bill). All were due to bills formed in the house, approved by the senate and ultimately signed by the president at the time. None were executive actions taken by Trump alone.
2.6%. And it’s a smoke in mirrors number because we can’t draw down the SPR by 200 million barrels every quarter to make inflation look artificially low. The use of the SPR as a political ploy is an abomination.
Presidents have been selling the SPR for years. Biden is not doing anything new.
Prior to Biden, the SPR has only been tapped by Obama in 2011 (due to the war in Libya), by George W in 2005 (due to 25% of domestic production going offline after Hurricane Katrina), and by George H W Bush in 1991 (during Desert Storm). There have been exchanges during hurricanes and other emergencies that were all refilled and spending bills authorized by congress that have tapped it at other times. This is the most rapid and largest drawdown in history. There have been more congressional actions on it lately due to the belief it is no longer as necessary since we have the ability to produce sufficient amounts of our own oil. The only problem with that belief is that Biden has made it more difficult for domestic entities to produce or provide infrastructure, so our domestic producers cannot react as quickly to supply disrputions.
Almost none. The drawdowns that took place under Trump were mostly due to bills passed prior to Trump assuming office [Section 404 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 authorized the sale of $2 billion in crude from 2017-2020 and Section 5010 of the 21st Century Cares Act (passed in 2016 with bipartisan support) authorized the sale of 25 million barrels]. There was an exchange after Hurricane Harvey that provided 5.2 million barrels to address a temporary supply disruption that was re-filled with interest by 2018. The only drawdowns authorized during the Trump Administration were 2, 5-million-barrel draw downs in 2020 and 2021 from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 (a bipartisan spending bill). All were due to bills formed in the house, approved by the senate and ultimately signed by the president at the time. None were executive actions taken by Trump alone.
Are not some of the current (and future) SPR sales required by a law that Trump signed to offset his tax cuts?
that's gonna sting tomorrow. Although maybe Amazon isn't a market leader anymore...it had some company-specific problems no doubt.
Waiting on apple. Hard to see how it has any good news after all the bad tech earnings we've seen lately.
apple numbers seemed ok - stock is down 0-2%. Maybe the call will help stabilize that one.
Tech has been an utter disaster lately. Amazon has taken a full 50% haircut over a year-ish. One of the greatest companies ever built...50% down. I suspect that one will be back.
Will be very interesting to see how value responds tomorrow. On the one hand, the economy seems to be slowing quickly. but a quickly slowing economy will allow the fed to pause or even pivot.
Bargain hunters are picking through individual stocks....Amazing that we can buy funds with portfolios with PEs under 10, price to sales under 1 etc. Funds like that are barely down over the past year. Will it last?
Almost none. The drawdowns that took place under Trump were mostly due to bills passed prior to Trump assuming office [Section 404 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 authorized the sale of $2 billion in crude from 2017-2020 and Section 5010 of the 21st Century Cares Act (passed in 2016 with bipartisan support) authorized the sale of 25 million barrels]. There was an exchange after Hurricane Harvey that provided 5.2 million barrels to address a temporary supply disruption that was re-filled with interest by 2018. The only drawdowns authorized during the Trump Administration were 2, 5-million-barrel draw downs in 2020 and 2021 from the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 (a bipartisan spending bill). All were due to bills formed in the house, approved by the senate and ultimately signed by the president at the time. None were executive actions taken by Trump alone.
Are not some of the current (and future) SPR sales required by a law that Trump signed to offset his tax cuts?
I missed the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 because it hasn't been sold yet, that calls for a total of 7 million barrels to be sold between 2026 and 2027. I guess you could make that argument about the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 mentioned above, but then you would have to say something similar about the two bills that passed while Obama was president. In terms of quantity, you are looking at roughly 65 million barrels for the two Obama era bipartisan bills against 17 million barrels for the two Trump era bills to the approximate 200 million barrels Biden has withdrawn or plans to withdraw. Trump and Obama era actions were all passed through a congress that would be held accountable to voters. Biden's actions have been through executive powers.
It's still worth remembering that Trump did propose to refill it with 77 million barrels at $24 a barrel and Democrats bragged when they nixed it from the COVID relief bill as a defeat for big oil. Seems pretty stupid in hindsight. Amazing how evil oil companies are until you need them (kind of like pharmaceutical companies).
that's gonna sting tomorrow. Although maybe Amazon isn't a market leader anymore...it had some company-specific problems no doubt.
Waiting on apple. Hard to see how it has any good news after all the bad tech earnings we've seen lately.
apple numbers seemed ok - stock is down 0-2%. Maybe the call will help stabilize that one.
Tech has been an utter disaster lately. Amazon has taken a full 50% haircut over a year-ish. One of the greatest companies ever built...50% down. I suspect that one will be back.
Will be very interesting to see how value responds tomorrow. On the one hand, the economy seems to be slowing quickly. but a quickly slowing economy will allow the fed to pause or even pivot.
Bargain hunters are picking through individual stocks....Amazing that we can buy funds with portfolios with PEs under 10, price to sales under 1 etc. Funds like that are barely down over the past year. Will it last?
Too much detail for me.
Will continue to bet against the market with ETFs.
Hoping to get some 5% bonds as my short term bonds paying much less reach maturity
Are not some of the current (and future) SPR sales required by a law that Trump signed to offset his tax cuts?
I missed the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 because it hasn't been sold yet, that calls for a total of 7 million barrels to be sold between 2026 and 2027. I guess you could make that argument about the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2018 mentioned above, but then you would have to say something similar about the two bills that passed while Obama was president. In terms of quantity, you are looking at roughly 65 million barrels for the two Obama era bipartisan bills against 17 million barrels for the two Trump era bills to the approximate 200 million barrels Biden has withdrawn or plans to withdraw. Trump and Obama era actions were all passed through a congress that would be held accountable to voters. Biden's actions have been through executive powers.
It's still worth remembering that Trump did propose to refill it with 77 million barrels at $24 a barrel and Democrats bragged when they nixed it from the COVID relief bill as a defeat for big oil. Seems pretty stupid in hindsight. Amazing how evil oil companies are until you need them (kind of like pharmaceutical companies).
Unfortunately, both parties will not address the bloated bureaucracy and unhinged spending. Addressing the poor fiscal management will be forced on the nation.
AMZN back to March 2020 lows, this market will follow.
After hours changes
tech -1.5% sp500 -0.7% Dow / value: flat
Value don’t care about Amazon.
igy I’m telling you this is a golden age for value investing. I’ve sold all my market cap weighted generic index funds and own value. Working really well.
