Analyze and view portfolio returns, sharpe ratio, standard deviation and rolling returns based on historical asset class returns and the given asset allocation
All gone in the next 12 months. Agip can you bookmark it?
Ok.
the futures are wild -
tech down 2% sp500 down 1% value flat
for a while now, indexing has not been the way to go. It’s been easy to beat the market with value. Looks like that will continue for a while.
Apple announcing earning Th. after close. Strong results from them could reverse all that, just as disappointing results from Alphabet and MSFT causing overnight futures to go down.
Starting in ‘76 sure. But many analysts have noted how that’s changed in last few decades.
If you do the same backtest on 30, 20 and 10 year time frames then growth wins on all 3 and value is in last.
Could a rotation happen now into value and away from growth? Not sure. It’s possible. But Google still made $69 billion in one quarter. Their 4th best quarter ever. YouTube revenue was highest ever. I’m not sure on what planet that’s “disappointing”. Just because some guy said they should have made 1 billion more…?
I will keep buying VOO on sale down here mostly, and minor positions in blue chip growth that could lead to major gains. Such as AAPL GOOGL LOW NKE V F CI META TSLA and a few dividend stocks like MO SCHD XOM.
Starting in ‘76 sure. But many analysts have noted how that’s changed in last few decades.
If you do the same backtest on 30, 20 and 10 year time frames then growth wins on all 3 and value is in last.
Could a rotation happen now into value and away from growth? Not sure. It’s possible. But Google still made $69 billion in one quarter. Their 4th best quarter ever. YouTube revenue was highest ever. I’m not sure on what planet that’s “disappointing”. Just because some guy said they should have made 1 billion more…?
I will keep buying VOO on sale down here mostly, and minor positions in blue chip growth that could lead to major gains. Such as AAPL GOOGL LOW NKE V F CI META TSLA and a few dividend stocks like MO SCHD XOM.
NFA**
i completely agree.
I am hoping we get a good dip here and I am buying, been waiting a few days for just such an opportunity.
Starting in ‘76 sure. But many analysts have noted how that’s changed in last few decades.
If you do the same backtest on 30, 20 and 10 year time frames then growth wins on all 3 and value is in last.
Could a rotation happen now into value and away from growth? Not sure. It’s possible. But Google still made $69 billion in one quarter. Their 4th best quarter ever. YouTube revenue was highest ever. I’m not sure on what planet that’s “disappointing”. Just because some guy said they should have made 1 billion more…?
I will keep buying VOO on sale down here mostly, and minor positions in blue chip growth that could lead to major gains. Such as AAPL GOOGL LOW NKE V F CI META TSLA and a few dividend stocks like MO SCHD XOM.
NFA**
i completely agree.
I am hoping we get a good dip here and I am buying, been waiting a few days for just such an opportunity.
Starting in ‘76 sure. But many analysts have noted how that’s changed in last few decades.
If you do the same backtest on 30, 20 and 10 year time frames then growth wins on all 3 and value is in last.
Could a rotation happen now into value and away from growth? Not sure. It’s possible. But Google still made $69 billion in one quarter. Their 4th best quarter ever. YouTube revenue was highest ever. I’m not sure on what planet that’s “disappointing”. Just because some guy said they should have made 1 billion more…?
I will keep buying VOO on sale down here mostly, and minor positions in blue chip growth that could lead to major gains. Such as AAPL GOOGL LOW NKE V F CI META TSLA and a few dividend stocks like MO SCHD XOM.
NFA**
yeah growth is still winning over 3-15 year spans. But value is crushing over the last year.
A year ago I was sighing at the complete failure of growth since the GFC. But what a year it has had. Relatively, anyway.
Growth (VUG)
1yr -26%
3 yrs: +11/yr
5 yrs +12%/yr
10 yrs +14%/yr
15 yrs +10%/yr
Value
1 yr -4%
3 yrs +9%/yr
5 yrs +8%/yr
10 yrs +11%/yr
15 yrs +7%/yr
But I suspect Gente is talking about even longer spans, when the conceptual idea of buying cheap assets is the 'right' way to invest. That's how we were all taught...rather than just buying big tech and not caring about valuation.
As for what will work going forward...My guess is that if interest rates fall back to where they were pre-inflation...then growth will again rule the roost. But if interest rates stay up here then value should continue winning.
A second question is what tech will do best....big cap mega caps...or smaller faster growers.
A third, tangential question is emerging markets...they've completely failed for 15 yrs, like value failed for 15 years. Could they roar back to life and rule the world too? Probably. Lots of money to made for those who would get that one right.
Be that as it may, i would expect that as a rebound takes hold, we see an interest in buying up the beaten down winners from the last few years, like Apple for example. As the cycle evolves, things may change.
the interesting thing is that many of the 'tech' companies aren't really tech companies anymore....google is an advertisement platform. As is Facebook. Apple is...consumer products and content delivery? Amazon is retail. Point is, if you want that ol' tech massive growth, the old names may not be able to deliver it. You might think you have a tech portfolio but it isn't anymore.
To get fast growth you might need to go to smaller companies that aren't household names. For that reason I use RYT, which is an equally weighted tech fund. Over the last 52 weeks, RYT has done much better than a more traditional market cap weighted fund like VGT.
But over longer periods of time VGT has done materially better, as megacap tech has done so well over the last 10 years.
Also, with RYT you don't face the prospect of major blowups like Alibaba and Tesla are going through...your money is more diversified.
to follow up on the danger of owning the 'tech' megacaps and thinking you are are a tech investor:
Today:
VGT, a traditional big cap tech fund: -1.19%
RYT, a smaller cap tech fund +0.40%
Just one day, but shows the problem that the 5-10 giants control the indexes and you may not benefit from fast growth among small tech if you are dominated by the giants.
Hard to make a switch from the last investing regime to the next one.
My attitude toward the mega cap tech is the hype was way over done. To me very similar to the tech bubble. Sure people go, “but these company have earnings.” True, but they also have been serial stock buyback players for the express purpose of goosing EPS. And, there are may piggyback companies that have little or no earnings.