Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
It’s looking like companies are indeed responsible for much of the inflation- they took the opportunity to raise prices quite a bit, clearly. Showing us why stocks are a good inflation hedge over time.
Does not include the thousands and thousands of businesses that had to close due to lockdowns.
With wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown, it’s not surprising that small businesses have suffered the most. In fact, as of April 2021, studies suggest that around 200,000 US establishments have had to permanently close their doors because of the "pandemic".
Note how the WSJ (source of above) blames pandemic but in fact it was due to lockdowns.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Does not include the thousands and thousands of businesses that had to close due to lockdowns.
With wave after wave and lockdown after lockdown, it’s not surprising that small businesses have suffered the most. In fact, as of April 2021, studies suggest that around 200,000 US establishments have had to permanently close their doors because of the "pandemic".
Note how the WSJ (source of above) blames pandemic but in fact it was due to lockdowns.
We have two Italian Restaurants that we have frequented over our two plus decades near our current home. One closed at the end of last year, the second at the end of this year. Our favorite Mexican restaurant is closing one of its locations by year end. More coming as they are squeezed by increasing costs and falling demand.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Same FactSet report:
“In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.3% above expectations. This surprise percentage is below the 1-year average (+6.5%), below the 5-year average (+8.7%), and below the 10-year average (6.5%).”
Surprise, even with lowering guidance, or eliminating it entirely, the drops are huge. Good luck with the always bullish twisting narrative.
Oh look, the village idiot from Texas is back. You need to find some better things to do during retirement than always be wrong on a MB about stocks haha.
Oh look, the village idiot from Texas is back. You need to find some better things to do during retirement than always be wrong on a MB about stocks haha.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Same FactSet report:
“In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.3% above expectations. This surprise percentage is below the 1-year average (+6.5%), below the 5-year average (+8.7%), and below the 10-year average (6.5%).”
Surprise, even with lowering guidance, or eliminating it entirely, the drops are huge. Good luck with the always bullish twisting narrative.
It seems to me that earnings above expectations is generally a good thing.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2022 (with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 70% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
It’s looking like companies are indeed responsible for much of the inflation- they took the opportunity to raise prices quite a bit, clearly. Showing us why stocks are a good inflation hedge over time.
On 2/19/20 the S&P 500 price/revenue ratio reached 2.43, eclipsing the previous record of 2.36 at the 2000 market peak. The belief that today's 2.24 ratio is a "buying opportunity" - just 8% lower - relies on the amplifying impact of pandemic deficits on profits to be permanent. pic.twitter.com/uWHDsXBT5M
Easy to forget that the 1973-74, 1981-82, 2000-02, and 2007-09 bear markets all unfolded AFTER the initial Fed pivot. The '73-74 pivot was short lived amid high inflation. Unless market internals are favorable (read my stuff), pivots amid recession risk say "something just broke" pic.twitter.com/3lgYbG1WWq
My losing streak continues. Up each of the last 3 weeks in Sept and the 1st 2 weeks of October. Lost big last week and again today.
Felt like I was making back all those losses we all had the 1st 8 months of the year once I began betting vs. the market but am now back into the losing ways of 2022.
Down nearly 4.5% for year when had cut this to under 3% as of opening on 10/13.
I am standing firm on tech. Trimmed quite a bit of small caps months ago.
Shifted some of the tech into Nasdaq 100 as they may weather a recession/sustained downturn better.
Long term, I just don't see tech. going away.
Funny how the pendulum swings, but now after a few up days, I find myself wishing for a downturn in order to buy some of the shares sold last week.
Unlikely the tech winners of the last decade will be the winners in the next upcycle.
Be that as it may, i would expect that as a rebound takes hold, we see an interest in buying up the beaten down winners from the last few years, like Apple for example. As the cycle evolves, things may change.
Unlikely the tech winners of the last decade will be the winners in the next upcycle.
Be that as it may, i would expect that as a rebound takes hold, we see an interest in buying up the beaten down winners from the last few years, like Apple for example. As the cycle evolves, things may change.
the interesting thing is that many of the 'tech' companies aren't really tech companies anymore....google is an advertisement platform. As is Facebook. Apple is...consumer products and content delivery? Amazon is retail. Point is, if you want that ol' tech massive growth, the old names may not be able to deliver it. You might think you have a tech portfolio but it isn't anymore.
To get fast growth you might need to go to smaller companies that aren't household names. For that reason I use RYT, which is an equally weighted tech fund. Over the last 52 weeks, RYT has done much better than a more traditional market cap weighted fund like VGT.
But over longer periods of time VGT has done materially better, as megacap tech has done so well over the last 10 years.
Also, with RYT you don't face the prospect of major blowups like Alibaba and Tesla are going through...your money is more diversified.