Not quite true. I'm not banking on a crash (very little market exposure at the moment), but would selfishly love to see one as that would represent a generational buying opportunity that would set us up to be fat and happy in retirement with no risk to end up eating cat food under a bridge somewhere...
Saw this tweet recently from Nassim Taleb.
"Finance has three simple rules: maintain a clear mind, figure out asymmetries, never talk to idiots."
Just kidding, besides Maser said Taleb was over rated ( or something to that effect ).
The Maserati anti-fragile portfolio 10% FX and 90% FANG.
“Earnings have mostly come in better than expected so far, especially for the big companies that really matter to the market as a whole, so it will be interesting as today’s session develops to see if strong earnings can outweigh rising yields in the minds of investors.”
The market’s two-day rally slowed overnight as higher UK inflation data pushed up rates. However, earnings continue to be stronger than expected, including from Netflix (NFLX) and United Airlines (UAL), as consumer demand rem...
“Earnings have mostly come in better than expected so far, especially for the big companies that really matter to the market as a whole, so it will be interesting as today’s session develops to see if strong earnings can outweigh rising yields in the minds of investors.”
Even Earnie’s weekly quoted FactSet Report no longer hides the decline:
“EARNINGS INSIGHT Q3 Earnings Season: By The Numbers Overview
The start of the third quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 has been weaker than normal, as the number and magnitude of positive earnings and revenue surprises have been smaller than recent averages. In addition, analysts have continued to lower earnings estimates for companies since the end of the quarter. As a result, the earnings and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 for the third quarter are lower today compared to September 30.
Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2022 to date. Of these companies, 69% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 0.1% above estimates, which is well below the 5-year average of 8.7%. As a result, the index is reporting lower earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 1.6% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 2.2% last week and an earnings growth rate of 2.8% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Downward revisions to earnings estimates for companies in the Financials sector and negative earnings surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector have been substantial contributors to the decline in the overall earnings growth rate for the index since last Friday and since September 30.
If 1.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).”
Even Earnie’s weekly quoted FactSet Report no longer hides the decline:
“EARNINGS INSIGHT Q3 Earnings Season: By The Numbers Overview
The start of the third quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 has been weaker than normal, as the number and magnitude of positive earnings and revenue surprises have been smaller than recent averages. In addition, analysts have continued to lower earnings estimates for companies since the end of the quarter. As a result, the earnings and revenue growth rates for the S&P 500 for the third quarter are lower today compared to September 30.
Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2022 to date. Of these companies, 69% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 0.1% above estimates, which is well below the 5-year average of 8.7%. As a result, the index is reporting lower earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 1.6% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 2.2% last week and an earnings growth rate of 2.8% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Downward revisions to earnings estimates for companies in the Financials sector and negative earnings surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector have been substantial contributors to the decline in the overall earnings growth rate for the index since last Friday and since September 30.
If 1.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2020 (-5.7%).”
Hong Kong stocks hit 13-year low as Alibaba, Tencent pressure index near 16,000-mark, yuan slumps on China growth worries, Fed rate outlook The Hang Seng Index slumps to the lowest level since April 2009 as tech losses put the 16,000 threshold under pressure
Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2022 to date. Of these companies, 69% have reported actual EPS above estimates
You have supplied information that supports the quote I posted. Thanks.
DEspite the market being down nicely at close today with my bets against the S+P and NASDAQ paying off, Telsla (where I hold a rather small position) took such a beating I barely finished the day in the black
Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2022 to date. Of these companies, 69% have reported actual EPS above estimates
You have supplied information that supports the quote I posted. Thanks.
